Tom Perez: we'll,pretty much know our nominee by April 28...

[brooklynite]

...mid-Atlantic Primaries

(On a phone call right now)

[Demsrule86]

1. I agree with this analysis.

Thanks.

[DownriverDem]

2. Remember Folks

If your candidate can't win the Electoral College, please pick a new one.

[pinkstarburst]

4. Okay, Boomer

[highplainsdem]

12. You're supporting a boomer boomer (since Oklahomans are sometimes called boomers).

[dsc]

3. It could be sooner if one candidate sweeps the south

but I don't think that is going to happen. I see a possible split similar to what Dukakis, Gore and Jackson did in 88. If that happens we could have three candidates emerge from Super Tuesday.

[StevieM]

6. Of course, it is always possible that it goes to the end, possibly to the convention.

What if Buttigieg wins Iowa, Sanders wins New Hampshire, Warren wins Nevada and Biden wins South Carolina?

All four candidates could stay in the race and continue collecting delegates, provided they break the 15 percent threshold, until the very end.

[Blue_true]

7. Unless something changes, Biden is on course to sweep the South.

If he takes Florida and Texas by the margins that he leads in both, it is over with.

[dsc]

8. I think Bloomberg could pull a Dukakis

or maybe even Mayor Pete. Dukakis won both Florida and Texas his year by getting large votes out of Jews and Hispanics. Bloomberg could repeat that.

[Blue_true]

9. Maybe. At this point, there are so many unknowns. nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

5. Yes, I agree, we should know our nominee will be Bernie by then!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

[customerserviceguy]

10. While I admire Perez's wishful thinking

I'm wondering if we will have a contested convention. Sen. Sanders seems to have a floor of 15%, no matter what, just about everywhere outside the South. While things could see-saw between Sen. Warren and VP Biden, it looks like Pete Buttigieg is closing in from behind.

What will be significant is seeing who comes in fourth place in the early contests. If it's the same person in three out of four of those races, then I'd say that person is on the way out. But it is quite possible that those top four candidates could wind up in any position in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. If that happens, we're on our way to a contested convention.

[judeling]

11. Running agaist an incumbant

Collapses the Race very quickly. The desire to beat Trump will make it even more so.

Iowa will determine the "moderate" voice, New Hampshire will determine the "progressive" voice and Super Tuesday will probably settle it.