Axios: Why Bloomberg might not run (sources say it was a trial balloon)

[highplainsdem]

https://www.axios.com/mike-bloomberg-polling-2020-primary-974ea30b-0923-4e6b-8748-4fcde1ecbffa.html

Sources close to Mike Bloomberg tell Axios that last week's announcement was partly a trial balloon to gauge interest and preserve the former mayor's options — but his own very extensive polling remains far from convincing.

The big picture: Polling being studied by Bloomberg shows big, perhaps insurmountable hurdles, particularly if Joe Biden stays in.

Why it matters: That's why Bloomberg didn't run in the first place, and still might not.

Bloomberg, reflecting his life in business, is practical and data-driven. His formal announcement has always been contingent on whether polling showed a convincing path to victory.

Morning Consult finds that Bloomberg is the first choice of just 4% of Democratic primary voters — putting him in sixth place, between Sen. Kamala Harris and Andrew Yang.

-snip-

Later in the article Axios quoted a tweet from Nate Silver on that poll.

Silver tweeted some comments on this Axios story, a three-tweet thread starting here (full text below):

Link to tweet

Good (if unsurprising) reporting here that Bloomberg's announcement may just have been a trial balloon, but the phase "particularly if Joe Biden stays in" is kind of nutso.

He's leading in almost every national poll and has for months!
https://www.axios.com/mike-bloomberg-polling-2020-primary-974ea30b-0923-4e6b-8748-4fcde1ecbffa.html



I know the Sanders folks talk about "Bernie erasure" but it seems like there's at least as much Biden erasure.

We're at the point where the blind spot that NYC/DC conventional wisdom has for Biden is as bad as the one it had for Trump in the GOP primaries four year ago.



You'd think, if anything, the lesson "don't be dismissive of a candidate who maintains a polling lead for months with a working-class coalition despite constant predictions of his demise from Acela corridor elites" would have been *overlearned*. But, nope, same shit as last time.

[Salviati]

1. Well, I'm happy to donate this to his potential campaign trial balloon:

[highplainsdem]

2. LOL!

[LaurenOlimina]

8. ha !

[flamingdem]

11. Hahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!

He deserves that

[stopdiggin]

3. "contingent on whether polling showed a convincing path to victory."

well it didn't take long to answer THAT question.

Like we were all desperately longing for another New York millionaire ......

[tblue37]

6. That's *Billionaire*. nt

[ritapria]

4. Why would Bloomberg believe Biden may drop out ?

Bloomberg's Hamlet Act has been droning on for 14 years ……...

[tblue37]

7. Reminds me of Mario Cuomo. nt

[highplainsdem]

5. I've updated the OP with the other two tweets from Silver following the one linking to that

Axios story.

[BootinUp]

9. These billionaires... they can fart and it makes

News

[Xandric77]

10. He Shouldn't waste his millions

He's gonna lose.

[Cha]

12. May the Trial Balloon tell him Soon!

Mahalo for this news, hpd!

[highplainsdem]

14. You're welcome, Cha! I thought it was great news, wanted to share asap.

[Gothmog]

13. From Nate

Link to tweet

[Iggo]

15. He's already not running.