BTRTN 2020 Vision: Are Democrats Too Exhausted for Disrupters?

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers provides its latest, up-to-the minute analysis of the 2020 Presidential race:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2019/12/btrtn-2020-vision-are-democrats-too.html

Excerpts: "Two themes have emerged as the unsettled field continues to jockey back and forth: (1) Do the Democrats need a 'mental health break'-- rather than radical disruptive change -- in the wake of Trump? (2) Are Democrats headed for a brokered convention?"

"Warren’s stall in November has led to a tumble in December... Biden actually improved in Iowa and continued to lead comfortably in Nevada and South Carolina, and Sanders passed Warren to lead in the progressive lane. Pete Buttigieg’s upward surge in Iowa and New Hampshire came to a halt, but he still commands a solid position there, and he also made modest progress in Nevada and South Carolina. Can Amy Klobuchar play the tortoise in a field with no hares? She is finally scoring in the polls, hitting the 10% mark in the latest Iowa poll. Mike Bloomberg’s money-saturated start has given him a foot in the door in California and Texas, but whether he can survive skipping the early four states remains to be seen..."

"The 'brokered convention' is a dreaded term among the old Dem pols. Key point: the Democratic primaries are NOT 'winner take all' and thus it is very difficult to amass delegates with multiple candidates owning segments of support. Typically one needs 15% of the vote to earn delegates, and one can imagine two or three candidates achieving that threshold in a number of primaries. Even if you win 60/40, it’s hard to catch a frontrunner who is 100+ delegates ahead in a two-person race. But in a four or five person race, you have the opposite problem: the frontrunner can’t amass enough delegates to get near a majority..."

[abqtommy]

1. IMHO, nothing could be more disruptive than tRUMP and the reTHUGS being and remaining in

power.