Here's why Hillary won the primaries on her second try, but Bernie probably won't.

[pnwmom]

The first time Hillary ran, she ran against Obama. Many of us would have been happy with either one as President. (I didn't even go to the caucuses that year because I liked both of them equally.) Then Obama, after he won, made her Secretary of State -- giving us all even more reason to support her next time. And she waited to run again till Obama had finished his two terms, so the voters who preferred him didn't have to choose between them.

Bernie lost to Hillary by 4 million votes. To win a majority this second time, he's going to have to get millions of votes from Hillary people. How many of them are going to pick the man who is STILL railing against the "Democratic establishment" and against Democrats like Hillary? If he only wins a plurality, then the winner will be chosen at the convention -- the electors will choose the nominee in subsequent ballot(s). What are the odds that the electors will choose the candidate with a minority of votes who rails against the "establishment"?

Which is more likely? That voters/electors who preferred Hillary will pick Sanders this time -- or that they'll pick Warren, Biden, Klobuchar, etc.?

[betsuni]

1. He has to earn those votes. Feet must be held to the fire.

Give details and name names about just who is corrupt in the "Democratic Establishment" and why.

[thesquanderer]

12. re: "Give details and name names" - you think THAT would be better? That would be more divisive!

It reminds me of one of their debates last time, where Sanders was asked for an example of big money interests influencing Hillary's votes. He weaseled out of it, but at the time, an interview between Warren and Bill Moyers was making the rounds, there's no way the Sanders campaign wasn't aware of it.

Sanders could have said: "Sure, I'll give you an example. In an interview with Bill Moyers, Elizabeth Warren described how Secretary Clinton's support of the bankruptcy bill went away once she was a New York Senator beholden to the influences of Wall Street. That's not me saying it, that's from Elizabeth Warren."

Yes, Hillary had a response to Warren's accusation, she said she did change how she'd vote, but not because of pressure from Wall Street, but rather because they added protections for single mothers. You can believe her explanation or not, but the accusation would have hurt her. Bernie could have gone there, but didn't. Accusing individual Democrats of corruption (and especially the Democrat who was still most likely to be our nominee!) would have been terribly more divisive for the party. He instead referred to it as a systemic problem that affects both parties.

You can read about (and see video of) Warren's accusation, and also see Hillary's response, at https://billmoyers.com/2015/11/18/flashback-elizabeth-warren-tells-a-story-about-hillary-clinton-wall-street-and-lobbying/

[TheFarseer]

129. Great post

i think he showed a lot of tact there by “pulling his punch” and being against big money politics in general and not anyone in particular.

[janterry]

2. I was very happy that Obama won the primaries

That was the scenario that made me happy (and hopeful).

The same could be said, now, if Bernie rises to the top.

[pnwmom]

4. How will Bernie rise to the top when he's alienated so many Hillary voters, and they

have alternatives like Warren, Klobuchar, and Biden?

[janterry]

40. I've written before

that most of the folks I work with are 'never Biden' people. They won't vote for him. They are young and very progressive. They represent a certain demographic that wants to move more to the left - and doesn't have an interest in compromise.

So, Biden has also alienated voters. I think people hope that younger voters will turn out for him just because he's the only choice (should he get the nod). People also hoped for that last time around.

FWIW, I held my nose and voted for Hillary. I would do the same, this time around. But I'm not young . And I'm more practical.

I just think it's foolish to assume that the young will turn out enthusiastically for Biden. They didn't last time around - with (what I think) is a similar choice.

[Amimnoch]

49. Similar experience, but never BS.

If you think Biden’s alienated young progressives, you obviously haven’t seen just how much BS has completely alienated older, long time progressive, liberal, and moderate voters.

The ones I work with, in fairly large numbers have emphatically stated that they’d rather see 4 more years of Trump than see Bernie win. More than a few have strongly expressed belief that they blame bernie for giving us Trump in the first place, and would rather see him to a 2nd term than play any part in rewarding him for his harpooning of our candidate and our party in 2016.

to paraphrase your own quote, I just think it’s foolish to assume that the mature population, the ones that actually turn out to elections in masse, will turn out enthusiastically for Bernie.

It may be true that Biden may not be able to win without the youth, but it’s DAMN sure that Bernie can’t win without the long time Democratic Party supporters behind him.

[janterry]

54. It's true

I used to live in moderate Democrat land - right near Trump country (I lived in Tallahassee for many years and moved right after his election). So, I had my finger on the pulse of that (well, I brushed shoulders with that all the time).

Now I live in VT - so the folks I see are typically very progressive.

[Fresh_Start]

78. I'm in that crowd

a vote for Bernie is a vote for another Trump term of office
If bernie wins the nomination, I'm not wasting any money or time on this election.

[Cha]

119. +1!

[Demsrule86]

81. Too bad for them...future Republicans or non-voters are what they are... get their way or

or they take their ball and go home...goodbye. We will win without them. I am sick of the blackmail. Sanders and/or Warren will not be the nominee IMHO because they will lose in must win states such as MI, WI and PA. And we will lose the general. Enough people understand this which is why Biden is leading and has all along.

The young voters whining and threatening to withhold their vote or to vote for some third party candidate is a form of blackmail. If they prefer Trump over any Democrat than fuck them. If they see caged children,food stamp cuts, health care attacked, homelessness now criminalized, Roe endangered, war on the horizen and don't vote the asshole Trump out than they are terrible people and probably stupid...I don't give two fucks how old they are. They will live with the consequences of their choice for the rest of their lives most likely.

I would bet you live in a fairly well off area in a blue state because here in Ohio, my kids will vote as if their lives depend upon it as will their friends because it most likely does. Two of my kids supported Warren at first. One supported Biden...now they all support Biden because they want to beat Trump.

[Scotch-Irish]

106. Most of the young folks I know are either for Elizabeth or Bernie.

And it's 50/50 split between them.

[radical noodle]

108. Just goes to show...

Most of the people I know are "never Bernie" folks. And good luck getting the young to turn out for anyone.

[Gothmog]

115. I know a ton of never sanders types

I will vote for the nominee of the party, but I really doubt that sanders will be the nominee

[Tarheel_Dem]

135. The same could be said for BS and black voters, especially black women voters who are the...

backbone of the Democratic electorate. Since we're putting forth anecdotes as evidence of what might happen in 2020, there's not a single person in my circle of family & friends who would even consider voting for BS in the primaries.

[Mike Nelson]

3. This is something I've never understood...

... about Bernie. To win the nomination, he is going to need Hillary voters. He should be saying nice things about her... just find positive things to say! And, yes, Obama and Hillary ended up being total professional grown-ups about their rivalry.

[DownriverDem]

33. Not only that

but many folks only support true members of the Democratic Party. That seems to be missing here.

[brutus smith]

39. "Professional grown-ups"

Well, that didn't happen right after Obama won the primaries. Obama, like Bernie, wasn't supposed to win, because the latte sipping crowd wanted Hillary. Remember all the Obama bashing during the primaries? I do. Now we have the same crowd bashing Bernie.

[lapucelle]

59. That's not what happened in 2008.

Not sure where you heard the "latte sipping crowd" nonsense concerning HRC, but those of us who worked the primaries and GE in 2008 know the opposite to be true, and the demographic breakdowns of the voting records bear us out.

Women, Seniors and Blue-Collar Voters Boost Clinton

https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89862939

Can Obama Woo Clinton's Blue-Collar Base?

https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90736312

Obama and blue-collar voters: Take 2

https://www.politico.com/story/2011/12/obama-and-blue-collar-voters-take-2-069491

Patterns of Distinction

https://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/patterns-of-distinction/

[Mike Nelson]

61. My post said...

... "ended up." I wasn't recalling "right after." There is a time for healing... I've never had a latte... but, if I did, I think I would probably sip it!

[Pachamama]

5. Sanders cannot beat Trump - I believe that also about Warren and a few others

But of those two, sadly this is simply the case. While I personally agree with most of their positions on many issues (and in particular I think Elizabeth Warren is a very brilliant woman), I think that moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans will either not vote if either were nominated or even vote for Trump or a 3rd party candidate. I do not believe either one can win the general election and if nominated (which I also don’t believe therefore either ever will get the nomination).

This is why I switched after being a Harris supporter to Biden and not to Warren, despite my appreciation for her, because I not only like Biden, but feel he will be able to beat Trump, be a great statesman and unite the country. I also still believe that he will choose a great VP and I hope it will be a woman or minority who we will all agree is fantastic as a future President.

Sanders isn’t and won’t be able to win and will never be that and I just pray all his supporters will not be vengeful and refuse to support Biden or another nominee when Sanders does not get it or that they refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee and vote a 3rd party or even Trump.

There - I said it. Flame away Bernie supporters- but it is simply the truth.

[samnsara]

31. well they didnt last time so why should they this time..

..its kinda culty..

[Pachamama]

69. Sadly...

[James48]

6. Bernie CAN win!

Wake up, people. Bernie can draw from a wide section- better than anyone else. And he is the real deal.

[NurseJackie]

10. No he can't. He clearly hates the Democratic party...

Bernie CAN win!

No he can't. He clearly hates the Democratic party... just LISTEN to the awful things he says. Loyal and lifelong Democrats aren't going for that.

Look... it's clear that his supporters are loyal and vocal... but there just aren't enough of them. He's maxed-out. He's reached his high-water mark. His ceiling isn't enough to secure the party's nomination.

He won't be our nominee. He won't be elected president. This is it. After this, he's going to go back to Vermont.

[melman]

20. He can

and you know it.

[NurseJackie]

27. Haaaaaa!

No he can't. Not with all the trash-talk and denigration of Democrats and the Democratic party. He fell short once before and in the intervening time period, he's continued to smear our party. That's no way to win-over Hillary voters. Fact of the matter is this: the Democratic party is NOT "feeble" ... and it's NOT "ideologically bankrupt" ... and it's NOT "corrupt" ... and it's NOT "the same as the GOP" ... and it's NOT "the party of the elite" ... and it's NOT "the party of the one percent" ... and it's NOT a bunch of "do nothings" ... and it's NOT TRUE that Democrats "focus too much on diversity" ... and it's NOT TRUE that Democrats "don't care about climate change".

So many lies and smears. I'm sick of it. (And I'm not the only one either.)

[Gothmog]

53. No we do NOT know that sanders can win

There is so much oppo out there on sanders that trump would win 45+ states. sanders will not be the nominee because sanders has alienated so many real democrats

I will support the nominee of the Barth but I seriously doubt that sanders will be the nominee. There are too many real Democrats who will not forget or forgive what sanders has said about President Obama and Hillary Clinton

[Demsrule86]

83. No we don't know it because it isn't true...and I think he knows he won't win...hence the attacks

on Democrats and the party. I will support Sanders in a general and pray I am wrong about his ability to win a general...but I will never support him in a primary. I was all in for Hillary in the 16 general...I will never get over it. Sanders has people in his campaign who supported and voted for Stein. That is a deal breaker for me in the primary.

Of course vote blue no matter who in the general. However, I look at Sander's numbers and do not believe he has sufficient support to win the primary.

[ehrnst]

122. Nope. Not really.

No matter how much some persist in denying that fact.

[Joe941]

113. So he votes with democratic senators 99% because he hates them...

Ok got it.

[NurseJackie]

114. That's a myth. He does NOT vote with the Democrats 99% of the time.

So he votes with democratic senators 99% because he hates them...

That's a myth. He does NOT vote with the Democrats 99% of the time.

Ok got it.

Not really.

[ehrnst]

120. Where do you get that statistic? I hear it a lot, but never hear the source.

Could you be so kind as to share? Does your source take into account when he was not present to vote on issues very important to Democrats?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-rejects-democratic-efforts-to-prevent-administration-from-lifting-sanctions-on-russian-oligarch/

Or this recent fact check?

https://www.politifact.com/vermont/statements/2019/dec/20/bernie-sanders/bernie-sanders-wrong-twice-claim-about-defense-bud/

Thanks in advance!

It appears that he had a real change of heart after he became a Senator, in terms of voting with Democrats, as this list of where he voted against them in congress shows.

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100210602656?fbclid=IwAR2bLl_LKhy2L64xNg8Pd6lse5Oet3UIc5vH7eD-aWdffvyjFX2iXjqqIs4#post248

Do you think it was because he's grateful to establishment Dems in VT and the Senate because they've cleared the field of any Dem primary opponents whenever he runs for Senate?

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/bernie-sanders-democrat-independent-vermont-601844

[pnwmom]

11. How will he appeal to people who preferred Hillary to him in 2016? What has he done

in the meantime to win their support over one of the others?

How could he vote without millions of them choosing him?

[brutus smith]

42. So you're saying people like you won't vote for Bernie if he wins the nomination?

[NurseJackie]

52. No. What pnwmom is saying is that he WILL NOT win the nomination without...

So you're saying people like you won't vote for Bernie if he wins the nomination?

No. What pnwmom is saying is that he WILL NOT win the nomination without the support of lifelong Democrats who are loyal to the party... and who are sick and tired and completely fed-up with the continual LIES and SMEARS and DENIGRATION of the Democratic party and the party leadership.

Bernie will NOT be our party's nominee. Period.

[ehrnst]

123. Attempted pivot to a strawman...

A favorite, yes?

Nice try....

[treestar]

125. No, it's how can Bernie win the nomination without winning over

the primary voters who voted for Hillary in the primary last time?

[ehrnst]

139. +1000.

[justie18]

13. No

Bernie will never win. We Hillary supporters have not forgotten how he failed to concede after it was impossible for him to secure the nomination in 2016, how he insisted on fighting up to the convention, his behavior during the convention, the booing of the Bernie Bros during the convention (to every speaker except Bernie) and particularly his continued insistence that the nominating process was rigged agaisnt him. Hillary and Bill Clinton were very supportive and helpful to the Obama campaign after her defeat in the 2008 primary. The party needs to unite to defeat Trump and I predict Bernie and his Bernie Bros will behave the exact same way this year - to the detriment of the Democratic party and the future with 4 more years of Trump.

[pnwmom]

24. This scenario seems all too likely. Bernie doesn't seem to be making any effort at all

to reach out or to show solidarity with the party.

[brutus smith]

43. Hillary didn't concede to Obama right away.

[justie18]

58. But

She did concede with a full throated endorsement of Obama and did not go to the convention vowing to try to change delegates support from Obama to her! Quite a big difference there. Do you recall what Bernie vowed to do - convert Hillary delegate to support him. He led the way to a very fractured convention. I predict he will behave the same way this summer.

Not to mention the fact that the race was much closer - even Obama admitted it was a virtual tie. Do you remember how the Michigan and Florida delegate were not allowed to be counted for her? Such different circumstances.

[brutus smith]

65. Hillary supporters wanted a roll call at the convention in 2008.

She finally gave in and gave the acclamation speech.

[lapucelle]

66. That's not what happened at the 2008 convention.

Where are you getting this "she finally gave in" nonsense? Several states yielded their turns, and HRC called for acclamation early in the vote.

Part way through the roll call (the New Mexico delegation first yielded to the Illinois delegation, who then yielded to the New York delegation), Senator Clinton of New York moved to suspend the rules of the roll call and nominate Obama by acclamation.

2016 more aptly fits your description.

Vermont had initially chosen to pass their alphabetical turn in order to be the last state to address the convention. That means that every other state went before them in declaring their delegate counts before Sanders moved to suspend the proceedings and ask for her to be nominated by acclimation.

[brutus smith]

70. As I correctly said she finally gave the acclamation speech.

She didn't concede after the last primary for 4 days. Her supporters were still working behind the scenes to somehow make her the nominee. I remember! Look it up.

[justie18]

73. Well

The contest was very very close and if the Michigan and Florida delegates were allowed to be counted, it would have been pretty much a tie - as Obama has publicly stated. Bernie was no where near being able to win the nomination through the normal process. He wanted to challenge the delegates to switch their allegiance from Hillary to him. Watch him try the same dirty tactics this next summer.

[StevieM]

74. Actually, HRC put out word within 24 hours that she would be suspending her campaign.

The formal announcement came 4 days later. But everyone had known the race was over for a few days.

[lapucelle]

75. It's incorrect to say that HRC "finally" gave the acclamation speech.

HRC gave it early into the roll call. It's not as if the NY delegation yielded so it would be dead last in voting and then she finally did it at the last possible moment.

In 2008 several of the states early in the alphabet did yield so that the NY delegation's turn (and the call for vote by acclamation) would happen early.

HRC's supporters were not "working behind the scenes" to make her the nominee. This can't be "looked up" in reliable sources because it never happened.

In 2008 when HRC conceded 4 days after the last primary, neither candidate had enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination. It's not as if she were mathematically eliminated in April and then waited 3 months to begrudgingly endorse.

Where are you getting this stuff from?

[StevieM]

85. By historical standards any race that close would have been expected to go to the convention.

HRC bowed out remarkably early. The media acted like it was the opposite, of course.

"Hillary is staying in way too long" was 2008's version of "the primary is rigged." In both cases the analysis is motivated by sexism, and it is complete and total nonsense.

[lapucelle]

89. Clinton Ends Campaign With Clear Call to Elect Obama

WASHINGTON — Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton brought her campaign for the White House to an end on Saturday with a rousing farewell to thousands of supporters here and an emotional and unequivocal call for her voters to get behind Senator Barack Obama, the man who defeated her for the Democratic nomination.

snip===================================================================

Mrs. Clinton first mentioned Mr. Obama seven minutes into her speech. But when she did, she swept away any doubt — created by her speech on Tuesday night, when he claimed the nomination — that she was ready to concede or that she had any hesitancy about endorsing him or his qualifications to be president.

“The way to continue our fight now, to accomplish the goals for which we stand, is to take our energy, our passion, our strength and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States,” Mrs. Clinton said, her voice echoing across the stone walls of the building where she and President Bill Clinton danced at inaugural balls in 1993 and 1997. “Today, as I suspend my campaign, I congratulate him on the victory he has won and the extraordinary race he has run. I endorse him and throw my full support behind him.”

snip===================================================================

“I want to take all our energy and all our strength and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama as our next president of the United States,” said Mrs. Clinton, who, as she noted in the speech, drew more than 18 million votes that she can now steer toward him.

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/us/politics/08dems.html

[lapucelle]

90. The degree of rank misinformation that's floating around on this thread is troubling. N/T

[betsuni]

127. And no matter how many times it's debunked it goes right back to being bunked.

I just saw someone repeating the same misinformation they were corrected on yesterday.

[betsuni]

126. No. Obama clinched the nomination on June 3, Hillary decided to concede the next day and met

with Obama on June 5th. Announced that weekend.

"On the night of Tuesday, June 3, Obama clinched the Democratic nomination. ... The next morning in Washington, a conference call of the senior Hillarylanders was convened to discuss their boss's next steps. ... Clinton knew she was being pummeled for her speech the night before but she'd convinced herself that she was, in fact, helping Obama. Her voters were angry, they they insulted, they had to be coaxed along. If she'd simply endorsed her rival, her supporters might have washed their hands of both of them, either staying home in the fall or voting for McCain. The situation was volatile. ... Clinton was persuaded to exit and set in motion plans to concede and endorse Obama that weekend. ... The Feinstein meeting played out against the psychological backdrop. Seated in the California senator's living room, each with a glass of water, Obama and Clinton cut right to the chase. ... Clinton left the Feinstein meeting and focused on her official exit."

From "Game Change"

[lapucelle]

62. I remember 2008 quite well.

2008

Obama received enough superdelegate endorsements on June 3 to claim that he had secured the simple majority of delegates necessary to win the nomination, and Clinton conceded the nomination four days later.

2016

On June 7, Clinton officially secured a majority of pledged delegates after winning in the California and New Jersey primaries. President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren formally endorsed Clinton on June 9.

Sanders confirmed on June 24 that he would vote for Clinton over Donald Trump in the general election and formally endorsed Clinton on July 12 in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

HRC was a class act in 2008. She knew what was at stake and did everything possible to ensure that the party was not torn apart.

[justie18]

76. Exactly!

Thank you! I remember it well as I am sure the other Hillary supporters do as well. In addition to Sanders very late endorsement, he continued to claim (up to present time) that the nominating process had been rigged against him and that he would have won the general election. What an incredible lack of class.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

105. NO HILLARY DID NOT & I'LL NEVER FORGET THE REASONING SHE GAVE FOR NOT CONCEDING EARLIER!!

I was pretty shocked by it.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[betsuni]

128. She decided to concede the day after Obama got the nomination, met with him the day after that,

and then publicly conceded. Nominee decided on June 3, met with Obama on June 5. Bernie waited a month after Hillary got the nomination.

[ehrnst]

124. So? Red herring...

[samnsara]

32. but what has he done? and what makes him more real?

[DownriverDem]

34. Do you know his background?

Look it up. No way.

[janterry]

44. I believe this, too

People were looking for a different voice last time around (sadly, this got us idiot-in-chief).

But Bernie is also a different voice - just a smarter one, and from the left - and people believe him when he speaks. They trust that he is speaking his values. I get that folks here want a mainstream democrat.

I don't think that mainstream democrat is what the country wants. Some people will vote for him (many people). But Biden hardly generates the kind of enthusiasm that we need to win.

[mopinko]

50. nobody wins when the party is divided. bernie is a great divider. and talk about baggage.

and as i keep saying, and will keep saying- the russians helped bernie, and he never dealt w it then. they are helping him again, imho, and he still isnt dealing w it.

and they are doing it again because he is divisive.
are we ever gonna wise up?

stop taking the bait, people. see who it is who is chumming the waters.

[George II]

63. He's got a fraction of the support he had four years ago, and as he liked to say....

....he was an "unknown". Now everyone knows him, and he's peaked.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

98. DAMN RIGHT BERNIE CAN WIN!!!

For the reasons you state and many others as well.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[ehrnst]

121. It's you that needs to "wake up."

[Hortensis]

7. Interestingly, the naderites, the PUMAs rioting for HRC, and

the sanderistas echoing the trumpsters' "Lock her up!" are mostly all the same people, no doubt with some aged out of it being replaced with newbies of the same orientation.

We know them by the professional studies that describe them and report their attitudes and their generally similar numbers/proportions over the years, but for us most obviously by the signature aggressive and unprincipled behaviors they repeat election after election arising from their apparently hard-wired passionate oppositionalism and antagonism toward the majority.

In anxious, insecure times, their numbers and visibility grow. They're loud now, and the only answer for them is to make the most of their visibility before it's destroyed by restoration of good, stable government.

Btw, that's not a guess. Interviews and polls of naderites-cum-PUMAs-cum-sanderistas-cum-steiners/trumpsters report they are similar in numbers to 2016 and generally plan to vote for Sanders (most oppositional option) in the primary and no Democrat after that. Sanders told them the DNC "rigged" the election and that's still their "die on this hill" excuse until they adopt a more up-to-date lie.

(Note, this does NOT refer to the 3/4 of Sanders Democratic voters who always intended to vote for whoever became our nominee. Very different kinds of people.)

[JonLP24]

101. I doubt sanderistas are the same people as PUMAs

I supported Obama in 2008 myself.

[Hortensis]

111. So did I, and Hillary as well. These people think differently

and want different things. Neither you (I assume ) nor I would have attacked Obama or Hillary viciously while supporting the other one, and neither you nor I viciously attacked someone we'd supported the election before once someone we liked more arrived on the scene. But that is what happened. In 2016, they had a white male populist leader to rally to, and they turned on the mainstream-liberal woman they'd supported against mainstream-liberal Barack Obama.

(Remember, a majority of those who respond to calls to populist antagonisms and resentments are at least somewhat socially conservative, and Sanders and Nader both style(d) themselves as populist leaders, as well as more radical left leaders. Not all are socially conservative by any means, but domination by those are is critical to understanding populist movements.)

Anyway, interviews and other studies say they mostly are the same people. Think behaviors instead of candidate labels, and the similarities from one election to another become very striking. Both the PUMAs and sandersistas/bros behaved so badly in 2008 and 2016 (and in the same ways) that the behaviors themselves became national stories. The striking similarity with the behaviors of trumpster populists also holds.

Of course they would also have manifested in populist/dissident followings before Nader. Ross Perot as a conservative populist rouser comes to mind. He must have drawn the same sorts back in the 1990s, when today's older sandersistas and trumpsters would have been younger. But the national destabilization was just beginning then, including the toxic internet and media subversion, and they weren't given so much attention. Or I just don't remember them; Perot himself was flabbergasting. Imo, his populist charisma and rhetorical delivery would have swept Sanders off the stage, and possibly Trump too. "It's simple, folks. You open the hood and fix it. Case closed!"

[Gothmog]

8. I am a proud member of the Democratic Party

I will support the nominee of the party. I seriously doubt that sanders will be the nominee of the party because there are far too many real Democrats who will never support sanders at a national convention

[DownriverDem]

35. Yep

My feeling exactly. I only support true members of the Democratic Party.

[brutus smith]

45. So you're another one who won't vote for Bernie if he's the nominee?

If I said that about Joe I would be banned from here.

[Demsrule86]

84. No one said that...they ...we because I include myself will not vote for Sanders in the

primary but will vote for any nominee in the general. I have added Warren to my non-primary voting list because of the idea that she and Sanders are a team...Primaries are not team sports and I do not want a brokered convention. I don't want my vote for Warren in a primary used to give Sanders the nomination. Thus both Sanders and Warren are off my primary voting list but either would receive my vote in a general. So stop trying to imply that Biden supporter and others have said or would ever say they won't vote for Sanders should he be the nominee. It simply isn't true.

[NurseJackie]

9. Excellent analysis! Thank you.

Here's why Hillary won the primaries on her second try, but Bernie probably won't.

The first time Hillary ran, she ran against Obama. Many of us would have been happy with either one as President. (I didn't even go to the caucuses that year because I liked both of them equally.) Then Obama, after he won, made her Secretary of State -- giving us all even more reason to support her next time. And she waited to run again till Obama had finished his two terms, so the voters who preferred him didn't have to choose between them.

Bernie lost to Hillary by 4 million votes. To win a majority this second time, he's going to have to get millions of votes from Hillary people. How many of them are going to pick the man who is STILL railing against the "Democratic establishment" and against Democrats like Hillary? If he only wins a plurality, then the winner will be chosen at the convention -- the electors will choose the nominee in subsequent ballot(s). What are the odds that the electors will choose the candidate with a minority of votes who rails against the "establishment"?

Which is more likely? That voters/electors who preferred Hillary will pick Sanders this time -- or that they'll pick Warren, Biden, Klobuchar, etc.?

Excellent analysis! Thank you.

[RandiFan1290]

14. Hillary lost to trump

It's really time to stop fighting the last presidential election.

[pnwmom]

15. Please explain what Bernie has done since then to reach out to people who preferred Hillary,

since there are multiple other candidates that they could choose instead of Bernie.

Hint: smugly reminding Hillary voters that she lost to Trump -- even though she won by 2.9 million votes, and only 80K votes separated Hillary and Trump in the 3 key states -- isn't a good way to appeal to them.

[RandiFan1290]

19. You can throw out your numbers all you want

Hillary is not in the White House. She lost to trump and is not running in this election.

Time to get over it.

I support Bernie 100% and have zero interest in trying to persuade you.

Time to get over the loss in 2016

[pnwmom]

21. If Bernie can't get several million Hillary voters to pick him instead of Warren, Biden,

or Klobuchar, etc., he won't win.

No one can win who doesn't appeal to millions of Hillary voters. Telling us to "get over it" isn't a rational strategy. It's a form of magical thinking.

[RandiFan1290]

23. So what?

Then he won't win the nomination.

So?

[Demsrule86]

87. +1000

Nice to be on the same side of an argument...

[floppyboo]

100. You can't win if you can't get people to fill in the top of the ballot.

I'm going to guess all the good dems that waited in line and filled in all the boxes down ballot yet left Pres. blank, PLUS all those that didn't stand in line far outweigh the intransigent PUMAs.
You can reminisce about the past all you like but the truth is the future doesn't look the same. And face it - lots of those people are no longer with us. 12 years ago, many Hillary voters were already seniors. Just saying.

[R B Garr]

109. Since seniors dying is your stated reason for fewer

Clinton voters, your quote “just saying”. isn’t Bernie’s heart attack disqualifying? Why be dismissive of older Clinton supporters when a candidate himself suffered a near fatal event.

[floppyboo]

130. I think of his stent proceedure as a restorative thing - he's back better than before

I will say, I was worried for him during the debate before - he was hoarse and somewhat distracted. Now he's all fixed! Yay! Same goes for any age of person with an undetected problem that is solved. I think of my friend's young son - they thought he was stoopid but he just needed some ear tubes. All fixed!
Celebrate!
Just saying, Clinton supporters are a diminishing number. That's a fact.
And yes, 65+ voters turn out in the largest %. But also consider that 55% vote republican, and 45% dem.
And in no way would I suggest that our needs as seniors should be dismissed.
Just watched a video of Biden when his hair was still darkish, so maybe he has since made amends, but he is on the floor, talking about how he is willing, despite his constituency, to repeatedly fight for lowering social security.
I haven't heard Bernie talk like that. If you can find it, please provide a link.

[R B Garr]

133. Since you are so morbid about Clinton voters,

then Bernie would face the same death odds. This will be his last primary and it’s over. He won’t be doing this primary thing at 82/83.

So glad to hear about your friend’s young son!

edit: and who hasn’t heard Bernie’s very repetitive stump speech. I don’t need to link to it.

[StevieM]

77. She kicked Trump's ass. She lost to Comey.

The attempts to normalize that election are amazing. She didn't lose based on policy, or a lack of political skill. She lost because the FBI publicly placed her under investigation for the purpose of affecting the election. Comey completely redefined her career and shattered her previously solid reputation.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

94. THE POINT IS HILLARY LOST TWICE... IT'S TIME TO MOVE ON!!!

Let's unite around the Democrat who wins the primary, which, IMHO, is most likely going to be Bernie.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[StevieM]

99. If people feel the need to keep pointing out that she lost then they are not really moving on.

Instead you are saying "let me write this into the history books exactly the way I want the story told and then we can move on."

She didn't lose the GE in 2008, she lost the primary, and by an extremely slim margin. And she was a winner when it mattered most, when she worked tirelessly to help elect Obama in his race against John McCain.

Hillary didn't exactly lose a traditional election in 2016, she kicked Trump's ass and we should remember that. She lost because the FBI set out to destroy her, just like they would have done to Sanders or O'Malley had they been the nominee.

If Bernie is the nominee this time then the best way for him to unite the party is to not treat his candidacy like an opportunity for the Democratic Party to redeem itself.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

102. Thanks 4 your thoughtful response Stevie. I hear what youre sayin, tho I disagree w/u on some points

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[Demsrule86]

86. I will never get over the 16 general election loss...and I won't support Sanders in a primary...only

in a general. A little help from Sanders in the general instead of the stance that Clinton had to 'earn his voters support herself' might have helped her beat Trump.
'

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

93. YESSSSSSSS!!!!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[DownriverDem]

37. He doesn't have the support

No matter how you try and convince us. Why support someone who attacks the party he is running in?

[RandiFan1290]

47. Get over it

I'm not trying to convince you at all

Vote for Joe

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

96. SERIOUSLY!!!! BUT IM VOTING FOR BERNIE, ALONG WITH MOST OF MY FRIENDS AND FAMILY... CANT WAIT!!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[NurseJackie]

41. Nobody is doing that.

It's really time to stop fighting the last presidential election.

Nobody is doing that. It's perfectly reasonable to fair to point out the reasons that he failed last time are the same reasons he'll fail this time. It's also fair to point out that he's continued to smear and attack the Democratic party and that he's done nothing to win-over Hillary voters and other loyal Democrats.

What people are pointing out is that if a candidate can't learn from their mistakes of the past... and if a candidate continues to make those same mistakes that resulted in failure. Then it's completely logical to deduce that failure will again be the result. That's all.

That's not "fighting the last presidential election". I know that the history of what happened is very uncomfortable and embarrassing for BS and his followers... but facts are facts. The only one around here who still has a chip on his shoulder is BS and his followers. For all the talk of wanting to "move on", the BS campaign certainly does dwell on the past... A LOT!

[brutus smith]

46. Will you support Bernie if he's the nominee?

[NurseJackie]

51. Ask me again if he becomes our party's nominee.

[brutus smith]

71. That's the difference between you and me.

I will support whomever the nominee is, no strings attached!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

97. I WILL!!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[safeinOhio]

16. They are all fine with me.

I haven’t seen if Bernie has released his taxes yet. If he has he has a good chance. Most of my neighbors voted for frump but now say they would rather have been able to vote for Bernie. So you have those plus the young. Suburban women will be the biggest block of voters. I have no idea.

[pnwmom]

17. Suburban women aren't a big group for Bernie, but they were for Hillary. nt

[safeinOhio]

18. Dems that voted but not for President

swung the election in the Midwest.

[pnwmom]

22. Jill Stein voters swung the election. Comey swung the election.

Vote suppression swung the election.

The difference (80K votes in three states) was so small that several things, individually, could have swung the election.

[Freddie]

26. They played the EC like a fiddle

And plan to again. I’m still beyond pissed off at the Bernie or Bust folks who were too stupid to see this possibility. What you do in the voting booth isn’t performance art.

[dansolo]

36. Bernie or Bust folks who ARE too stupid to see this possibility

FTFY - It is still going on

[safeinOhio]

60. That ought to bring them into the fold.

Or do you just feel better dividing and spreading the hate? I’d be willing to bet the farm that I can some Bernie voters with a much higher IQ than you or me. But the Russkies love it.

[safeinOhio]

134. Are you so pissed that you'd

not vote for him if he becomes the nominee?

[Freddie]

136. No, I'll vote blue no matter who

[safeinOhio]

137. That is the most important thing.

Save your hatred for trump.

[Freddie]

138. I don't hate Bernie

Just think his rabid followers don’t get how elections work here. The stakes are too high for voting to “make a statement.”

[floppyboo]

131. indeed. And where are Podesta and Mook now? nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

104. There are more suburban women who support Bernie than you think...

And there is a GINORMOUS number of young people under 35 who support Bernie & as soon as Bernie's primary success forces Mayor Pete out of the race, that number will skyrocket even more!!!


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[Renew Deal]

25. I bet a good number of people are ABB

Anybody but Bernie

[Maggiemayhem]

67. Are you saying that if Sanders is the nominee

then Democrats will stay home or vote for Trump? This is why we lose.

[Renew Deal]

79. I'm talking about the primary

But I can see how some would hold a grudge from 2016

[samnsara]

28. im still waiting for someone to tell me any of his accomplishments..

..its like bringing a blank resume to a job interview..

[brutus smith]

48. Google is your friend

[Gothmog]

55. We have looked and cannot find such accomplishments

Has sanders gotten any-significant legislation passed?

[NurseJackie]

57. That's what happens with a "no compromise" and all-or-nothing attitude.

That's what happens with a "no compromise" and all-or-nothing attitude. One needs to be willing to find common ground, and make compromises, and engage in some give-and-take. One needs to have the interpersonal skills to be able to gain allies and form partnerships. One must be willing to do what's necessary to shepherd their bill through. One needs to be realistic and look at the political climate and landscape when determining and planning for what can actually be accomplished and funded.

The "shoot for the Moon" and "go for the gold" bills may look good on someone's CV... but in the end it's just a vanity effort for "bragging rights".

All I'm trying to say is that getting things done and ACTUALLY making progress requires work and cooperation. This isn't the same as naming a post office or dedicating a bridge. The successful politician is someone who lives in the REAL WORLD and knows how to WORK WITH OTHERS to make progress, and build on the successes of previous accomplishments.

[samnsara]

29. i dont know any HRC voters who will support BS this time around...

[NurseJackie]

56. Including me.

[Demsrule86]

88. Includes me too...only a general...

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

95. I DO!!!!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[Gothmog]

116. Same here

The Hillary supporters i know really dislike sanders. Dislike may be too mild of a term for some of these Hillary supporters. sanders has alienated a significant percentage of the base of the party

[MarianJack]

30. There's only 1 way I would vote for Sanders in the primary

That would be if he and Tulsi Gabbard were the only two remaining candidates. I would also then be preparing for another 4 years of Dolt45...BARF!

Sanders' platform is good. HE is a disaster waiting to happen. He has George McGovern, Barry Goldwater and Fritz Mondale written all over him. I don't care what polls today show. In the summer of 1972 George McGovern was within 6 points of Tricky Dickie in a few polls. In the mid Summer of 1988 Michael Dukskis had a 17 point lead over Bush the first and some talking heads were speculating that he had the election sewn up. I remember a few 2012 Summer polls showing Romney with a few points lead over President Obama. Early polls mean NOTHING.

We need a nominee who has the mental toughness, stamina, self discipline and brains to prevail in the intensively negative campaigh that will be inevitable from the other side.

RESIST!

[RestoreAmerica2020]

38. Warren will win Clinton voters; a Warren/Harris ticket will energize the democratic base; a woman

..candidate can beat the odious know-nothing racist, bigot, mysogynist, self admitted sexual predator we have now in WH. It's time we put a woman, women in charge..not because they are women but bc both are exceptionally qualfied to be our next president/vp.

[Gothmog]

117. Warren's missteps with her MFA plan has hurt her

Warren would kill down ballot candidates in Texas. Texas will be a battleground state if Biden is the nominee. If Warren or sanders is the nominee, we can forget about Texas being a battleground state and give up on the down ballot races in Texas

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

64. You can't compare Hillary to Obama, who was one of the greatest Presidents of all time!!

Or to Bernie, who WILL win on his second try.


Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[lapucelle]

68. Wait...what? "You can't compare HRC to President Obama or BS"? Why not? N/T

[Hav]

110. Some just cannot refrain from making needless attacks against Hillary

The post you responded to made no sense at all in the context of this thread (making a second run and expanding the base of the previous run). It was just taking a dig against Hillary.

[ritapria]

72. The people who say Bernie can't win the nomination

have nothing to worry about , right ?... Perhaps some of them are a little bit more worried than they let on …...If the party wants to nominate another "electable moderate" who can't fill a high school gymnasium , I say go for it …. We will apparently have to go down this road at least one or two more cycles for some folks to get the message ..I am resigned to it ...What a marketing strategy .. Vote for us , we're incrementally better than our competition …..

[Hassin Bin Sober]

82. Yeah, they're not worried at all.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

92. It is laughable...

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

91. Of course they're worried, why else would they spend SO much time & effort attackin Bernie?!?!

Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!

[Gothmog]

118. I am still hoping that sanders fails to get the 300 delegates needed to put his name into play

One key item is that under the rules, a candidate cannot be put into nomination without 300 delegates. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf

Nomination of the Democratic Candidate for President: The Permanent Chair shall receive nominations from the floor for the Democratic candidate for the Office of President of the United
States in the following manner:

a. Requests to nominate a presidential candidate shall be in writing and shall have affixed thereto the written approval of the proposed nominee and the name of the individuals who shall be recognized to make the nominating and seconding speeches on behalf of a presidential candidate and shall be delivered to the Convention Secretary at a location as specified by the Secretary no later than 6:00 p.m. of the day preceding the day designated for the commencement of presidential nominations.

b. Each such request must be accompanied by a petition indicating support for the proposed nominee signed by delegates representing not less than 300 or more than 600 delegate votes, not more than 50 of which may come from one (1) delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one (1) nominating petition for president and for vice president. Pledged and automatic delegates may sign the petition.

If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold.

If sanders keeps on pissing off Obama and Clinton supporters and attacking established Democrats, my wish may come true

[MineralMan]

80. Pretty much right on target! K&R

[SidDithers]

103. Bernie won't win the nomination because he's got support from only 6% of black voters...

Bloomberg does better with Black voters than Bernie does.

Sid

[brooklynite]

107. Polling Comparison:

Clinton:
12/2007 -- 33%
12/2015 -- 54%

Sanders:
12/2015 -- 37%
12/2019 -- 17%

[R B Garr]

112. Wow, that's quite a nosedive for Bernie.

Not surprising at all.

[Gothmog]

132. This makes me smile

Link to tweet