Poll: Buttigieg, Sanders surge sets up 4-way tie in New Hampshire

[brooklynite]

The Hill

Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have seen a spike in support in New Hampshire and are now knotted with former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) at the top, according to a new poll.

The latest Monmouth University survey of New Hampshire finds Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., with a narrow lead at 20 percent support, followed by Biden at 19 percent, Sanders at 18 percent and Warren at 15 percent.

The previous survey from September found Warren and Biden alone at the top, at 27 percent and 25 percent support, respectively. Warren has since lost 12 points and Biden has fallen by 6 points, while Buttigieg has gained 10 points and Sanders has gained 6 points.

Sanders boasts the best favorability rating in the field and is the only top-tier candidate to see his favorability rating improve since September. He sits at 69 favorable and 23 unfavorable, up from a 63-28 split in September.

[ritapria]

1. Look at the age composition of their weighted sample

Last edited Thu Jan 9, 2020, 01:34 PM - Edit history (2)

18-34 (14%) …..35-49 (17%) …...50 -64 ( 33 %) ….65 + ( 35%) …. What happened in 2016 in NH Dem Primary ? : 18 - 34 (24%) ...35-49 ( 29%) …. 50 - 64 ( 29%) …...65+ ( 18 %) …………….. Monmouth oversampled older voters by a country mile …Bernie is leading in NH ... I quote the NBC News Report from the 2016 NH Primary : "From Sanders voters in the New Hampshire Primary , 37% were 45-64 years old , and 13% were 65 years old or over " ……

[brooklynite]

2. And your issue is?

[bluewater]

3. Almost 70% of the responders are over 50 years old?

That seems a bit stilted towards the older voter.

[brooklynite]

4. Because they show up and vote...

[bluewater]

8. To THAT extent? Actually voting says otherwise.

Could you back up those percentages? I think not.



Upthread a poster showed results from the last New Hampshire primary that says not.

18-34 (14%) …..35-49 (17%) …...50 -64 ( 33 %) ….65 + ( 35%) [weightings in this poll]

What happened in 2016 in NH Dem Primary ? : 18 - 34 (24%) ...35-49 ( 29%) …. 50 - 64 ( 29%) …...65+ ( 18 %)

Seems this poll is more than just stilted a bit towards older voters, eh?

[Uncle Joe]

12. Excellent catch ritapria.

[brooklynite]

5. Repeat after me...

Ground game, ground game, ground game.

[SidDithers]

6. Shouldn't Sanders be running away with NH?...

It’s practically his home state.

Sid

[left-of-center2012]

7. "Shouldn't Sanders be running away with NH?"

Warren is from Mass and Boston TV stations are seen in much of NH.

[SidDithers]

9. He had 60% of the vote in 2016...nt

Sid

[left-of-center2012]

11. And ...

He wasn't running against Warren.

[judeling]

10. A really Good Pre-Debate Poll for Bernie.

First it didn't help Yang and so limits the choices. But more important the recovery of his favorable since September while his major competitors all dropped is nothing but a good for him. Additionally a poll that lowers expectations there is a help.