538:Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Nomination?

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate. The chart shows how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome. Right now, many candidates, even the front-runners, wind up with tall bars close to zero — generally, those are simulations where the candidate dropped out before having a chance to accumulate many delegates.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[usaf-vet]

1. Biden. It's starting to feel that way to me.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

8. I think we'll have the best idea after 2/22

That's when Nevada votes.

Iowa is still up in the air, and the number of candidates < 15% may play out well for Biden. If I were a wagering person, I'd bet Biden won't win Iowa or New Hampshire. He'll certainly win South Carolina. Nevada is an interesting cross section of voters, and might be a bellwether for 3/3.

Millennials are, theoretically, now the biggest voting block. This will also be the first GE this century in which 18-22 year old first time Presidential voters have no living memory of actually witnessing 9-11 as it happened. The median US age is a shade under 38, meaning that a solid chunk of the electorate doesn't remember Ronald Reagan, and probably has somewhat hazy memories (if any) of HW Bush and Bill Clinton. They don't remember the hostage crisis, the cold war, Iran-Contra -- much less the political milestones of the Boomers, like the JFK assassination and Watergate. They don't have a lot of memory of a space program. WW2 is as distant in history to many of them as WWI was for me. So it is an open question as to how enthusiastically they will come to the polls to choose among a slate of very old people. Remember that many members of this new generation of voters have very mixed feelings about the Obama years, depending on what was happening with their family economically during the Great Recession.

[usaf-vet]

11. I can't say I have much faith in old polling methods. If you consider the following.

I think we have been pushed to this since Bush v Gore in 2000.
To get where we are today we needed electronic voting.
To get to electronic voting we needed an enemy "the hanging chad" and old voting machines.
To manipulate election results we needed a fast "hidden" vote tallying system without auditable results.
To manipulate election results we needed a fast "hidden" vote tallying system so elections get QUICKLY called.
To manipulate election results we needed a fast "hidden" vote tallying system so that suppressed votes analysis only comes after the elections have been called.

The rush to judgment.

Here is why we are where we are now 2020 is likely to suffer from the same influences with the same results.

All the run-up to voting day means little or nothing to the outcome when the entire system is being manipulated in the dark of cyberspace and data manipulation. It happened in 2016 it will happen in 2020.

Do you want proof? Take Trumps win in 2016. It was a surprise to ALL right to the point where the polls were closed and returns were coming in. True clandestine manipulation of voters.

For more check this earlier post.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12856300

[brooklynite]

13. And then we won Trump districts in 2018...

The voting manipulation software seems notoriously unreliable.

[usaf-vet]

14. No they only use the weapon (technology) when they need it . You keep believing it's unreliable.

We can say it's unreliable about every bullet that misses or every missile that is off-target.

I'll wait until 2020 results to be right or wrong.

I would be very happy to be wrong.

Watch Netflix "The Great Hack".

If you haven't seen the evidence from either the Netflix video or the DemocracyNow program let me know if your position changes after watching it.

Otherwise, we will have to agree to disagree.

After 25 years as a computer consultant, now retired, I completely believe the plausibility of the ability to alter results with pinpoint accuracy by manipulating the persuadeable.

[brooklynite]

15. They had control of the House and Senate and "didn't need it"?

[usaf-vet]

16. 2020 Right or wrong!

[Algernon Moncrieff]

2. Not that different than numbers previously seen

A little better for Joe - up from 1 in 3 to 2 in 5. Sill less than a 50/50 shot, but he is first among equals. I thought it was interesting that the ranking is 1) Biden, 2) Sanders, 3) Brokered Convention (no majority) 4) Warren and then 5) Mayor Pete. I'd be interested to see how the numbers play out for various scenarios of if/when they drop out and who would stand to gain.

[judeling]

6. The Drop outs are sort of included

already. They have a weighting for distribution and a likelihood. For example Senators and Governors are projected to drop out sooner then others.

As the simulations run they are included.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

9. Fair. Thanks

[totodeinhere]

3. Well it sure looks like this thing is still wide open with the odds being against any one

candidate winning it at this point. That is of course if this projection is accurate, and I don't know if it is or not. And with every top tier candidate being well funded it looks like this could very well drag out for quite a while. But one thing is clear. Whoever winds up on top we all need to get behind her or him.

[judeling]

4. An interesting Model

But maybe a bit to complex. We will see. They re trying lots of interesting stuff.
It will be interesting to track it over time.
Friday's Register CNN poll be the of Iowa will probably first really interesting day.

[Amishman]

5. Interesting, the biggest surprise to me is the likelihood of no one having clinched by convention

We really could go with to the convention not knowing

[Algernon Moncrieff]

10. The funny thing is that in my parent's day, open conventions were the norm

Very few nominations were sewn up on the first ballot of the convention.

[Demsrule86]

17. Not happening...we will know by super Tuesday in all likelihood...wishful thinking.

[left-of-center2012]

7. ...

[Gothmog]

12. I love Nate Silver and will be reading his anaysis

[NurseJackie]

18. Not sure who it will be, but I definitely know who it won't be.