After 8 months of campaigning, here's the change in net favorable ratings of the 2020 field in NH

[redqueen]

Interesting (or at least I think so)

Link to tweet

[guillaumeb]

1. It is interesting, but Yang is polling at 3%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Some of this might be general lack of interest by many voters.

[George II]

3. I like Yang, I'm glad he's been participating, and hope he stays active after this is all over....

As for the +38, if he was around 2% and went up to 3%, with rounding that could be +38% for him.

Again, he's great, I think he's contributed quite a bit to our debate over the last 6 months.

[guillaumeb]

10. We agree.

His thoughts on a UBI should be a part of the dialogue going forward.

[question everything]

2. Interesting but as we all know, what counts is what happens on election/primary/caucus day

[redqueen]

4. Definitely!

I'm just so glad he's getting so many new voters engaged with politics and feeling hopeful

[Sloumeau]

5. I understand Biden's drop because people have been...

taking shots at him for about 9 months. What surprises me is Booker's 18 point drop in favorables. I have no idea how that happened, but I guess it also explains why he did not do better in polling so far.

Does anyone know if there was one or more events or issues that triggered Booker's drop in favorables? I'd like to see his favorables each month to see when his biggest drop occurred.

[Hortensis]

6. I confess I have trouble making sense of statistics and need interpretation.

I went looking for some and didn't find this in particular, but found this from Monmouth 7 days ago. A net rating change chart is at the bottom, with Biden plummeting -32 since last May, down to +33 from +65.

Btw, notice that Monmouth's labels have Sanders voters identified as "liberal" and other Democrats tossed together in "moderate and conservative" description. !!!!! There's also a separate "non-liberals" category, whatever that is beyond inviting people to make double sure they're not mistaken for liberals. "No, I'm not one of those wingnuts who hate family values"?

Sanders and I are not in the same category -- both of us agree bone-deep on that. They don't offer a category for Senator "I am not and have never been a liberal Democrat." He also thinks liberal Democrats should give up our conceit of being very different from Republicans and just most honestly identify as conservative Democrats.

New Hampshire Four-Way Fight in Dem Primary

Among registered New Hampshire Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the February 2020 Democratic primary, 20% currently support Buttigieg, 19% back Biden, 18% back Sanders, and 15% back Warren. Others registering support include Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (6%), ...

Compared to Monmouth’s last New Hampshire poll in September, Buttigieg’s support has grown by 10 points (from 10%) and Sanders’ support has increased by 6 points (from 12%). Warren’s support has dropped by 12 points (from 27%) and Biden’s has decreased by 6 points (from 25%). “The race remains fairly wide-open...

Self-described liberals divide their preference among Sanders (26%), Warren (24%), Buttigieg (16%), and Biden (16%). Self-described moderates and conservatives are split between Buttigieg (25%) and Biden (22%). Sanders gets 10% and Warren gets 7% support among non-liberals, placing them at about the same level as Klobuchar (9%), Gabbard (7%), and Steyer (6%) with this bloc. ...

The Monmouth poll also asked New Hampshire voters who they would back if the nomination race came down to just a few candidates by the time of the state’s February 11th primary. No single candidate emerges as a presumptive front-runner in a scenario involving just the four candidates who lead in the poll right now. Biden’s vote share grows by 5 points to 24%, Buttigieg increases 3 points to 23%, Sanders increases 3 points to 21%, and Warren increases 3 points to 18%. Another 5% – half of whom are Gabbard supporters – say they will not vote for any of these candidates in a four-way race.

“There appears to be no natural heir if the field winnows before New Hampshire. Supporters of lower polling candidates tend to disperse fairly evenly among the top contenders,” said Murray.

2020 DEMOCRATIC FIELD
NEW HAMPSHIRE PARTY VOTER OPINION
Net Rating (favorable – unfavorable)
Jan ’20 Sept ’19 May ’19
Bernie Sanders +46 +35 +54
Pete Buttigieg +45 +50 +47
Elizabeth Warren+37 +55 +39
Andrew Yang +35 +5 –3
Joe Biden +33 +42 +65
Amy Klobuchar +31 +22 +33
Cory Booker +24 +31 +42
Tom Steyer +15 +10 n/a
Deval Patrick –5 n/a n/a

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nh_010920/

[TwilightZone]

7. That's a pretty silly way to look at it.

Yang is a whopping 2 points ahead of Biden in net favorability. The reason Yang is up is that he basically started at zero because no one had any clue who he was.

Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg are still ahead of Yang in net favorability.

Edit to add context:

2020 DEMOCRATIC FIELD
NEW HAMPSHIRE PARTY VOTER OPINION
Net Rating (favorable – unfavorable)
Jan ’20 Sept ’19 May ’19
Bernie Sanders +46 +35 +54
Pete Buttigieg +45 +50 +47
Elizabeth Warren+37 +55 +39
Andrew Yang +35 +5 –3
Joe Biden +33 +42 +65
Amy Klobuchar +31 +22 +33
Cory Booker +24 +31 +42
Tom Steyer +15 +10 n/a
Deval Patrick –5 n/a n/a

[brooklynite]

8. We don't vote based on popularity...

[ritapria]

9. Speaking of Polls , Bernie leads in new CA. Poll

From Capitol Weekly : Bernie 24% ...Warren 21% …..Biden 20% ..Buttigieg 11% ...Yang 7% ….Bloomberg 6%....Klobuchar 5% ...