*NEW* Monmouth (A+ Rated) Iowa Poll - Biden 24%, Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 17%, Warren 15%

[Skya Rhen]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_IA_011320/


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

[OnDoutside]

1. But, but, but...

[Thekaspervote]

3. As voting time draws closer voters are going to shift to Biden. Everyone wants the squatter out!!

[evertonfc]

2. these polls

are all over the place but if Biden wins Iowa. The fat lady will sing.

[getagrip_already]

26. disagree....

Iowa just isn't that important. Just 54 delegates out of 5400, and those are proportionally distributed. (I know, broken record, but an earworm anyway).

Same for NH.

Nobody is going to be able to claim anything based on those two states. Well, bragging rights but not much more.

Hey, I'd love to see biden win them, but it really doesn't matter. Once super tuesday comes and goes, a leader will be apparent.

Bernie has the most to lose there imo. But, nothing to gain. He won nh in '16, and it didn't help him one bit.

[boomer_wv]

32. Idk

I think everyone's strategy is to use Iowa and NH to weaken Biden by saying he cant win. If he ends up winning Iowa I think it will snowball from there.

[getagrip_already]

35. that might be the effect....

But clinton won it in 16 when bernie had the lead in the polls if I remember correctly. There was no rush to prop her up.... when she lost nh though, she was being written off as being surged past.

Then super tuesday hit. And that solidified her lead. She never had to look back.

[TexasTowelie]

33. In case it is needed:

[tirebiter]

4. One more but..

Oops! That page can’t be found.
It looks like nothing was found at this location.

can't get there from here

[PatSeg]

5. Ha, ha, ha!

I'm sure someone will find it!

[Skya Rhen]

7. OP just edited to include working link...

[Time2Breathe70]

13. good REM reference!

[Anon-C]

27. Right!

[comradebillyboy]

6. Is this the Biden Surge?

I'll be glad when we start counting actual votes and can put the polling arguments aside.

[Amishman]

16. The Biden butter churn

Biden goes up. Biden goes down. Biden goes up. Always in the same range of travel.

And we get rich creamy butter at the end, to put on our popcorn to watch him trounce the orange idiot.

[Demsrule86]

24. +10000

[pfeiffer]

8. Hooray!

Nothing like a kick-ass poll to lift my Monday morning spirits!

(Gosh I love Joe.)

[Cha]

9. Wow!

[Skya Rhen]

10. Interesting that the polling was conducted from Jan 9-12... after the Iran strike on Jan 8.

[pfeiffer]

12. Aha!

Excellent point.

[MineralMan]

11. BIDEN SURGING IN IOWA!

{Please excuse my hyperbolic post title, but I'm just following normal procedure here...}

This is quite different from the other poll, isn't it? Maybe we'll have to wait for the actual caucuses to take place. You think?

Stop Premature Exultation!

[still_one]

15. I think they have medicine for that?

[still_one]

14. Iowa being a caucus instead of a primary makes things very volatile and uncertain. It is

effectively a four person tie in Iowa

[brooklynite]

17. Now, to be accurate, CNN should report that Sanders has lost his lead, right?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287417110

[Demsrule86]

23. That won't happen.

[judeling]

18. The interesting thing is the two polls

When pushed to 4 the Yang, Klobuchar, Booker and the rest don't go to Warren at all.
Biden gets 4
Buttigieg gets 8
Sanders get 6
Warren gets 1

Bad news for Warren.

[ritapria]

19. Sample skewed towards Joe

Age 18- 34 (just 19%).. It was 27% of the Caucus vote in 2016 - and likely to be a stll larger percentage of the vote in 2020 because Bernie is much better organized in Iowa this time around ...... Age 35 -49 .(. 21%) .. Age 50-64 (31% ) ...Age 65+ ( 28%) ... Monmouth will look very silly when the results come in ..Ignore the Polls .. I said that when the DM Poll , showing Bernie ahead, was released and I say it now ….Look at what is happening on the ground in Iowa ..Bernie drew over 900 people at a Climate Change Rally in Iowa City yesterday - while many of the college kids are still on Winter Break …… Some other unnamed candidates are drawing "attendance" ..In 2016 : "Amongst Sanders voters in the Iowa Caucus, 32% were 17-29 years old and only 16% were 65 or over years old " (Source NBC News Iowa Exit Polls Result ) …… Memo to Monmouth : You are not properly polling young people , thus shorning Bernie of his support base in Iowa, as expressed in your results .. Why do you keep doing this ?

[Demsrule86]

22. No...sounds right.

[Thekaspervote]

30. Hello..A rated polls are NOT skewed!!

[boomer_wv]

34. I know who

A poster supports before looking when they start talking about how the polls are skewed.

[George II]

20. What about the serge?

[Demsrule86]

21. I guess we know why Sanders campaign is freaking out

K&R

[helpisontheway]

25. Come on Joe..if you can win in Iowa you can take this thing..

Bernie will hold on and bash you until the convention doors but it will not matter.

[getagrip_already]

28. what is interesting is that...

None of the campaigns are leaking internal polling data, which is much more accurate since they are canvassing daily.

Most of the better funded campaigns have a lot of boots on the ground. They know who intends to stand in which corner, but nobody is leaking.

Beddie intewestink.

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. MOE +/- 4.9%, so top 4 are statistically tied, just like the DMR poll of a few days ago

The Iowa race is wide open; the odds will likely favour the candidate (*cough*Warren*cough*) with the best ground game in Iowa.

[boomer_wv]

36. It's not really accurate

To say they are tied. Being within an MoE doesn't mean you are tied, it means you are inside of the ci for the poll.

These are random samples, so the distribution of possibilities is explained by the central limit theorem. The distribution is a bell, and the areas where Biden and Warren's, for example, numbers cross is much closer to the tails of both curves than the middle. So, while she could win by a point and still be inside of the ci of this poll, that outcome is far less likely, based on this poll, than results where she loses. There would be about an equal mathematical chance of her losing by 18 as winning by 1.