Opinion: Biden's advantage is underestimated

[Gothmog]

Link to tweet

On favorability, the extent of Biden’s advantage among African Americans is just as pronounced. At 69 percent favorable and only 13 percent unfavorable, Biden’s net favorability (plus-56) tops that of Sanders (plus-48), Warren (plus-39) and Buttigieg (plus-8). The good news for Buttigieg is that 34 percent of African American voters haven’t even heard of him and 21 percent have heard of him but have no opinion. He has room to grow, in other words. If Biden were the nominee, he would get 82 percent of African Americans. No other candidate would draw more than Sanders’s 74 percent.

Part of the explanation for their preference for Biden may be that African Americans overwhelmingly prioritize winning (57 percent) over agreement on issues (33 percent). In addition, by a 61 percent-to-21 percent margin, African American voters favor continuing President Barack Obama’s policies over policies that are more progressive than his. Whether this is based on loyalty to Obama, an assessment of what the voters as a whole will accept or their own moderate ideology (or some of each) is debatable. (When Warren talks about “big” and “fundamental change,” she probably is not endearing herself to these voters.)

There has been a long-standing debate in the Democratic Party about the continued status of two overwhelmingly white states in the first and second positions in the primary schedule. When one candidate dominates among African Americans to the extent Biden does, Iowa may prove predictive of nothing at all. If Biden eventually wins the nomination, it might be the perfect time to rethink the entire primary process, by rotating states, giving primacy to states that are the most diverse or moving to a regional primary system with a series of Super Tuesdays.

Finally, the media should take stock of their coverage to date. The overwhelmingly white national press corps has consistently devalued Biden’s strong base of support and harped on things that are entirely irrelevant to supporters or even endear him to them (e.g., gaffes, his hokey language). Mainstream outlets that pay more attention to Twitter than to African American voters, especially older African American voters who are not active on social media, may have underestimated Biden’s chances and overestimated the chances of candidates who, like them, are active on social media. This should be a reminder for the chattering class that their assessments of candidates do not necessarily correspond to reality.

[LakeArenal]

1. Has been from the start.

Also the solidity of his base. We are the base that could and will.

[George II]

3. And with Booker's departure today (I like him and wish he did better), Biden will probably get....

...a good portion of his supporters.

[guillaumeb]

4. Biden is a known quantity, and he would make an excellent President. eom

[Thekaspervote]

8. This! Especially considering current events in the ME

[MontanaFarmer]

11. The 'known quantity" point is extremely important,

given the dysfunction and unpredictability of the current occupant at 1600. Biden represents, to many, a return to normalcy and competence. Can't say as I disagree with that plan. We work from his election to shape the agenda the way we think it should be, but holding that office HAS to come first. Good posting, I agree with you completely.

[guillaumeb]

13. Welcome to DU,

and your addition is excellent and on point.

[emmaverybo]

21. Qualifications for the office should be a primary consideration, not an agenda. In the end, when

ambitious agendas are not able to be met, do we have the most qualified and experienced candidate occupying the White House—that’s the question. I like Amy because she is realistic politically and thus understands she can’t promise the moon and stars without lying to herself and
her supporters.

[Sloumeau]

5. Gothmog, Thanks for posting this!

This is good news for Joe Biden!



That is especially true now that he is leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire!

Iowa:

[link:https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287420724|]

New Hampshire:

[link:https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287420688|]

[Thekaspervote]

9. Yes!! Saw those polls today..thx for reposting!!

[Sloumeau]

12. Thekaspervote, you are very welcome. :)

Fivethirtyeight.com says if Biden wins Iowa, he has an 80% chance of grabbing the nomination. I can live with that.

[Thekaspervote]

17. Wow!! Thx for sharing... that is phenomenal

[AlexSFCA]

6. if Biden wins both IA and NH then he is presumptive nominee

he will easily win south and open primary states such as CA.

[Sloumeau]

10. You are totally correct! :)

Fivethirtyeight.com says if Biden simply wins Iowa, he will have an 80% chance of grabbing the nomination.

[janterry]

7. Hopefully the primaries will move us to a more progressive candidate

We'll see.

[BeyondGeography]

14. THEE Jennifer Rubin

Awesome.

[Gothmog]

15. Biden holds wide lead among black voters in Democratic presidential race, Post-Ipsos poll finds

Link to tweet

Former vice president Joe Biden is far and away the favored candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination among black Americans, boosted by his personal popularity, his service in the Obama administration and perceptions that he is best equipped to defeat President Trump, according to a national Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) occupies second place in the Democratic field among African American voters, easily outdistancing the remaining candidates in the race. Sanders is leading among black voters under age 35, replicating his success with younger white voters in other national polls. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) runs third.

The survey finds meager support for former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is among the leaders in polls in the predominantly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire but stands at 2 percent among Democratic black voters nationally. A lack of familiarity with him and concerns about his experience and sexual orientation appear to be contributing to his current standing. Buttigieg has said that as African Americans get to know him, he will gain more support, but the poll undercuts that assertion. He receives only 3 percent support among black voters who are familiar with him.

[Thekaspervote]

18. These are fantastic numbers for Biden. AA voters- smart, savvy and know who has and will

Continue to work for their community

[melman]

16. Jennifer Rubin

lol

[xyoungblood]

20. I've been voting for 33 years

and I have watched the Dems lose over and over again. I always look at the numbers after elections because I want to know how many of my Democratic brothers and sisters decided to stay home and not vote. This is simple enough research for anyone who can google. Democrats have ALWAYS lost because other Dems stayed home. It's easy to blame, voter purges, or gerrymandering, and those things contribute, but our democratic non-voters are our problem.

With that said, the most important thing Democrats should be focused on in this election is NOT who the candidate is, because they are all better than Trump, instead, we need to be focusing on giving our friends who are democrats an ultimatum to vote. I won't be friends with Dems who sit home on election day. They whine and complain about life, but refuse to be proactive; I don't have time for people like that. Tell your friends that you can't be friends with them if they don't vote, make it that important to you. I've done this and it's interesting to watch guilt flash across faces of non-voting friends, "What? Are you serious?"....."Yep. You do vote, don't you?" That Dem won't sit home on election day.

[Tarheel_Dem]

22. K aNd R!!111!!! n/t

[Cha]

23. Mahalo for this, Goth!

[boomer_wv]

24. Biden has been wildly underestimated.

The first is that so many people who have been against Biden have been sure that something he was going to say was going to torpedo his campaign. However, in this day and age, the things people call gaffes are so inconsequential that nobody who was considering him cared about them at all. The opposite was true, the more people attacked him, the more people wanted to defend him.

Secondly, people presumed that if you didn't support Warren or Sanders that you couldn't be voting with your heart or weren't passionate for the candidate. The Republicans could announce tomorrow that Trump was retiring and they were not running a candidate. The Democratic nominee would just be President automatically, and I'd still vote for Biden. People who are voting for Biden are doing it because they think he's be the best President. That's also why he does best against Trump.

[Gothmog]

25. Jonathon Capehart-Biden leads among black voters for a reason

Link to tweet

Before you @ me, remember the truism: No candidate will win the Democratic presidential nomination without significant support from African Americans. They are the foundation of the party, and black women are its backbone. And the Post-Ipsos poll, like many national polls before it, makes it clear that they want Trump defeated and they think former vice president Joe Biden is the person to do it.

Biden snagged 48 percent of those surveyed when asked which candidate they would vote for or caucus for in their state. The next-closest was Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), with 20 percent. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) came in third with 9 percent.

Biden had the highest net approval rating among registered Democrats (69 percent) and overall (78 percent). Sanders followed with 63 percent and 71 percent, respectively. And Warren came in third with 51 percent and 58 percent, respectively.

Biden led on “best chance to defeat Trump” (53 percent), “handles issues important to blacks” (32 percent), “would unite the country” (43 percent), “strong character” (33 percent) and “closest on issues” (35 percent). Sanders is second to Biden on all these questions. But Warren comes in third on just “would unite country“ (6 percent), “strongest character” (10 percent) and “closest on issues” (9 percent). Interestingly, former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg did better with black voters on “best chance to defeat Trump” (6 percent) than Warren (5 percent). And Booker did better on “handle issues important to blacks” (14 percent) than Warren (7 percent)…..

What this new Post-Ipsos poll of African Americans voters has done is confirm that my Aunt Gloria has her finger on the pulse of black America. At the family barbecue, I asked her why she thought Biden was the person to take on Trump. Her answer left me slack-jawed and remains the best explanation for Biden’s continued strength. “The way the system is set up now, there is so much racism that it’s going to have to be an old white person to go after an old white person,” Aunt Gloria said. “Old-school against old-school.”

[Gothmog]

26. African Americans trust and support Joe Biden -- and Bernie Sanders' dirty tactics won't change that

Link to tweet

Joe has more relationships in our communities than anyone else in this race.

He has more history with our communities than anyone else in this race.

And Joe is more comfortable in our communities than anyone else in this race.

To say that Joe has betrayed black voters is not only dangerous, it is flat-out wrong. We already know his character, his heart and his record; you can’t try to make us believe something that runs counter to our own experiences with Joe Biden.

Not only has Joe spent his entire career fighting for civil rights, voting rights, equal justice and equal opportunity, it is what brought him into public service in the first place. In fact, Joe led the charge as a United States senator to extend and strengthen the Voting Rights Act in 1982.

He has fought for more resources to prosecute hate crimes, including resources for the Justice Department and FBI to reopen painful, unsolved murders from the civil rights era.

And in one of the greatest achievements of his career, Joe forged a path for the protection of women and girls — including women of color — by writing and spearheading the Violence Against Women Act.

Here’s what I don’t understand: If Joe Biden wasn’t a champion for black America, why did Barack Obama, our nation’s first African American president, choose Joe to be his vice president?

In my lifetime Joe’s steadfast support as Obama’s No. 2 was unprecedented; it was one of the first occasions when people who look like me were able to see a white man standing proudly and loyally behind a black man. And I can tell you this: South Carolina voters will never forget that.