Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBernie Sanders is climbing everywhere
With only 10 days until Iowans caucus, Sanders is seeing his poll numbers climb nationally and in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Nationally, Sanders is at his highest point since his post-announcement bump. Our CNN poll has him at 27% earlier this week. Most other polls don't have him nearly as high, though he seems to have crossed the 20% barrier. That's big news because it puts a hole in the theory that Sanders couldn't grow his support from the mid-teens he's generally had.
Sanders is now the clear alternative to former Vice President Joe Biden in the national polls. Biden, who is still holding in the upper 20s, has seen his margin over Sanders shrink. Other Democrats such as Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg are stuck at 15% or below.
--
Sanders' rise seems to be occurring in a way that is unusual for a Biden alternative. Look at the recent polls, and you see Sanders is doing as well if not better among nonwhite compared to white voters. That means that if he is able to do well in the very white states of Iowa and New Hampshire, he has a better chance of capitalizing on that momentum as the contest heads to the more diverse states of Nevada and South Carolina.
--
Across all the pollsters who took a poll in Iowa in December or January and at least one previous poll, Sanders is up an average of five points from said previous poll. This includes our CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll which placed Sanders at 20% with no one in front of him. An average of CNN approved polls in January have Biden and Sanders tied at 21% and on top of the field.
---
Sanders also seems to be doing better in New Hampshire. A new MassInc Polling Group poll conducted for WBUR found Sanders at 29% among likely primary voters. That's up from 15% in December and gives him a 12 point advantage over his nearest competitor (Buttigieg). An examination of all the polling in the Granite State this month has Sanders ahead and the only candidate clearing 20%.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/24/politics/bernie-sanders-campaign-surging/index.html
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)See linked article.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to George II (Reply #1)
RandiFan1290 This message was self-deleted by its author.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cary
(11,746 posts)I guess, like Sanders himself, most of his supporters aren't Democrats?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)It's disgusting. Leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cary
(11,746 posts)Disgusting.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Cary (Reply #42)
Name removed Message auto-removed
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)The National Emerson College Poll of 1,128 registered voters between January 21 and January 23 found that 53 percent of Sanders supporters said "yes" when asked if they would support the Democratic nominee even if it is not their candidate.
Another 31 percent of Sanders supporters said it depends on who the nominee is and 16 percent flat-out said no. The poll, conducted via landline calls and an online panel, has a 2.8 percentage point margin of error.
https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-poll-warren-biden-2020-nominee-emerson-college-1483831
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/national-2020-biden-and-sanders-battle-in-two-way-race-for-democratic-nomination
You're welcome.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bucolic_frolic
(43,173 posts)results viewed through rose-colored glasses. Nothing boosts ratings like a horse race, and nothing is better for network profitability than capturing a generation of 25-39 year old eyeballs.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
A-Schwarzenegger
(15,596 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)Biden has gaines more than 7% in the last two weeks in Iowa, going from second place to a clear lead.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287443276
....according to RCP (538 isn't much different):
Jan 10 (2 weeks ago)
Biden 17.7, -3.7 behind the leader
Sanders 21.3
Warren 17
Buttigieg 21
Jan 17 (1 week ago)
Biden 20.7 +3.0 from a week ago, +0.3 lead
Sanders 20.3 -1.0 from a week ago
Warren 16.0 -1.0 from a week ago
Buttigieg 18.7 -2.3 from a week ago
Today
Biden 21.0 +3.3 from 2 weeks ago, +3.7 lead
Sanders 17.3 -4.0 from 2 weeks ago
Warren 16.7 -0.7 from 2 weeks ago
Buttigieg 16.3 -4.7 from 2 weeks ago
Makes one wonder just WHO is "surging", doesn't it?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)One might also wonder why there is no link provided.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
at least you get an answer that's relevant to your question. I don't even get that!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)....knows how to find RCP.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)that when there's no link provided there is probably a reason.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kurt V.
(5,624 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MRDAWG
(501 posts)I consider myself a Socialist. I am also a realist. I know for a Democrat to win they need ENTHUSIASTIC Afro-American support. Only Joe Biden has that. A poll I saw on MSNBC showed Biden far ahead with Black voters. When President Obama endorses him that support will be enthusiastic. Remember Obama endorsed Biden twice in 2008 and 2012.
Our Democratic nominee needs a majority of Independent support. Independents are not going to vote for someone on the far left. Sanders and Warren are far left. Trump supporters will not be able to label Biden a Socialist.
Yes, when only Democrats vote a far leftist can win the nomination. It will all be for nothing if we don't beat Trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NJCher
(35,675 posts)read this article, if you can get past the paywall at the NY Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/us/politics/democratic-party-unity-primary.html
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
melman
(7,681 posts)Polls say different.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html
and before anyone starts in about the one there that says he doesn't...
...note that the same poll has Trump beating Biden
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,771 posts)Emerson Ntl
Biden 26%
Sanders 20
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
RCP
Ntl avg as of today
Biden 28.9
Sanders 22.7
IA
Biden 21.7
Sanders 17.3
538 poll avg Ntl avg as today
Biden 27.5
Sanders 17.7
IA as of today
Biden 21.4
Sanders 18.0
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/
Another bit from Nate Silver 538 twitter
Biden is currently projected by FiveThirtyEight to win every single primary and caucus except for NH (Sanders), Massachusetts (Warren's home state), and Vermont (Sanders' home state).
And this from the hill.com
Sanders got 40% of the dem primary votes in 2016, he is polling half that now. Even if were to gain all of Warrens support it would not give him the 2016 total.
And while were at it a current EC map
Biden 320
Sanders 230
Warren 210
Link to tweet
?s=21
Gee I feel sooo much better seeing all the actual numbers.. the truth of whos in the lead!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NCProgressive
(1,315 posts)With its innate xenophobia, trans-phobia, homophobia, white supremacy and misogyny.
Keep climbin Bernie - you're going up the wrong peak.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,771 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
never vote for Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
I didn't expect to see that kind of flat statement on this website.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,009 posts)Last edited Fri Jan 24, 2020, 10:30 PM - Edit history (1)
He's nearly 80 years old. He's going to hurt himself.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
revmclaren
(2,524 posts)He catches his naps when he can.
ONLY!!! 2020 and beyond.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)out for him. But Bernie will be alright. The few hundred regular posters at DU may think they are important but they are less than a drop in the bucket in the total scheme of things. Go Bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TwilightZone
(25,471 posts)DU seems to be the only place, outside of his supporters' rhetoric, where he's climbing. As you noted, DU is not representative of the real world.
In the real world:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287444526#post17
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
A-Schwarzenegger
(15,596 posts)since the last time i looked
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join the revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
UniteFightBack
(8,231 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
EveHammond13
(2,855 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to EveHammond13 (Reply #27)
RandiFan1290 This message was self-deleted by its author.
Autumn
(45,096 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JoeOtterbein
(7,702 posts)...vote!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
CentralMass
(15,265 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MineralMan
(146,317 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)Illuminating as always.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ahoysrcsm
(787 posts)Hi, can you post a link to the polls cited in the article?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
melman
(7,681 posts)All the links are embedded.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ahoysrcsm
(787 posts)Can't provide links to backup your assertions. Typical hypocrite.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
myohmy2
(3,163 posts)...love Bernie and trust him to begin building the America we all want to see...
...an America in which everyone is welcome, treated fairly and allowed to prosper...
...look no further, Bernie is the anti-trump we've all been looking for...
...for everything dark, dangerous and sinister about trump, Bernie is the light...
...Bernie will bring us to a new place in America, a place we've all been longing for...
...Bernie can do it...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden