Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIowa - 97% of the vote is in. Top two are 0.1% different
Pete Buttigieg ------ 550 ----- 26.2%Bernie Sanders --------547 ----26.1 %
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html?region=RaceTitle&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
msongs
(67,441 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ChubbyStar
(3,191 posts)You know how to dance, right?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)And everyone keeps telling me the primaries are a dash.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)up for their candidate. Or for a wing of our party.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
musicblind
(4,484 posts)If Sanders pulls ahead, that's a win, and we shouldn't treat that win different than we would for any other candidate. Same with Buttigieg.
This looks like it's going be a nail biter.
For both Buttigieg and Sander's sake, I hate what happened in Iowa with the app, etc. This needs to be the last Iowa caucus. From now on, we should use primaries across the board.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mysteryowl
(7,396 posts)Rank choice would be close to how a caucus functions, minus the peer pressure.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)Super democratic... or at least representative of the choices
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
mysteryowl
(7,396 posts)People select their preference in order, 1 - 2 - 3. It takes more math to figure out the winner, but far more democratic.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasTowelie
(112,422 posts)of time. When Bruce Poliquin ran against Jared Golden for U.S. House in Maine during November 2018 it required nine days to determine the winner using ranked choice voting and the race only involved three candidates. There were only four candidates and 280,000 votes in that election. I imagine that it would require a much longer interval of time if there were a larger number of candidates and ballots since the ballots would have to be recounted each time one candidate was eliminated in the process.
People are already getting impatient with the two day delay we experienced in the caucus and the there were only two counts--the first alignment and the final alignment.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Wabbajack_
(1,300 posts)They get results ok for the Lower House (the Senate is another story).
Maine results so slow because it's rural. And this was the first time after all.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)a matter of getting the correct algorithm. Once given the correct parameters, computers are pretty fast at doing arithmatic and calculations. It's easy enough to start with a predetermined result, then test the input data until it gives the predetermined result, then expand and re-test as needed.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)...he'd be #1 on lots of ballots... but not #2 or #3 on many ballots at all.
He's the second-choice of very few people.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JudyM
(29,277 posts)Heres what Im seeing: Sanders is the top 2nd choice of both Biden and Warren voters.
Scroll/select Second Choice
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)People who didn't have viability saw their votes go to others much more than Bernie.
Bernie is loved or hated, not much in between. Hence, not the 2nd choice of very many people. 1st or last for most people.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JudyM
(29,277 posts)brothers, for example, and the majority of folks who are asked: 57% of people currently think favorably of him. They certainly dont all love him, but they do like him: https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
radius777
(3,635 posts)He has a die-hard base that will always be with him, but has little ability to expand that support - as evidenced by the fact that he's lost much of it from last time. Yes there are more candidates in the race but a truly 'revolutionary' candidate (as he claims to be) would hold and expand their votes.
Obama's rise was truly a revolution in that he drove up turnout and expanded support across the board.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JudyM
(29,277 posts)What Im seeing:
He is the second choice of more Biden and Warren voters than any other candidate. Scroll to second choice: https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
He is viewed favorably by approx. 57% of the public: https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/bernie-sanders-favorable-rating
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
radius777
(3,635 posts)in that if Bernie were truly revolutionary, he would've held and expanded his support from last time - to the point that there would be little of a race at all.
Note that Sanders has never faced any true attack, of the type he would get from the GOP, thus I disregard any current favorability ratings.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JudyM
(29,277 posts)you Know what they say about ASSumptions Id prefer to base decisions on available facts. We dont know what happened in Iowa. In the General, hed only need to win, not to prove anything beyond that. He can absolutely win the G.E., as polls showed in 2016 and are showing again now.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasTowelie
(112,422 posts)then Hillary would be our current president. Those polls were a waste of pixels on the computer screen.
The way that the Electoral College is set up, it will require a four to five point lead in national polls for a Democrat to win. I recently read an article that stated Trump could lose by 5 million votes, but still win the Electoral College in 2020.
Winning the polls is meaningless when the decision about who is president is based upon who wins the most electors in the Electoral College.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JudyM
(29,277 posts)Not saying the polls are completely accurate predictors, especially general polls because of the EC as you point out, but statewide polls showing a close race dont lead one to believe she had it in the bag.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
OneMoreCupOfCoffee
(314 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapfog_1
(29,223 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tweedy
(628 posts)True, it was not 2008, highest Iowa turnout ever, and Senator Sanders drew less than 30% of the vote.
Yet, lots of Iowans caucused. Initial reports were wrong.
Right now this country will elect a potted plant to send the crooks packing.
There are more of us than there are of them. It is a numbers game.
The only way to a GOP victory is splitting us, the majority, into factions.
Pick the candidate you think has the best chance to fix this GOP mess the fastest.
If we do that the great wisdom of the American people, you know, us, will win November's elections AND
Maybe be able to stave off a vicious midterm loss.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
lapfog_1
(29,223 posts)has less participation than an actual vote (especially one where you can mail the ballot).
A Caucus means you have to travel to some specific location at a specific time and hang out while the process completes (re-alignment, tallies, etc).
Many people cannot dedicate that sort of time.
Hence less participation.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
I know what a caucus is.
You left out the part where neighbors unify behind a candidate (which does happen) and find a larger sense of community.
Perhaps I am the last caucus admirer left. Nevertheless, ranked choice voting is in our future, this one predicts 😉
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
krissey
(1,205 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
But, what does that have to do with my post? Or, were you replying to someone else?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
krissey
(1,205 posts)even if officially a win. He needed more. He didn't get more. This is his SC. That is what it has to do with your post.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
musicblind
(4,484 posts)and I was like, but... lol
I think I get what you're saying now.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)He's already practically certain to win all of the vote counts. If he wins the SDE count as well, it can't be anything but a win.
And no one has ever won both IA and NH and not won their party's nomination.
For all the gloating, it would be quite something if Sanders' Iowa performance put him in position to be the clear frontrunner.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
unc70
(6,120 posts)If Sanders eked out a win in Iowa and wins in NH, that would mean he won both, not lost both like Clinton.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)And no one has ever WON both IA and NH and not won their party's nomination.
Says nothing about losing both.
Since the modern early primary era in 76, you have Carter 76, Ford 76, Carter 80, Gore 00, Kerry 04, Romney* 12 (until well after NH, he was thought to be the winner of Iowa).
It's not a lot, but 6 out of 16 times that both IA and NH were contested is pretty far from none.
And most of the times that IA and NH were split, the winner of SC (or the first early southern state, in pre-early-SC days) was the winner. So there's your 1992, even though Iowa wasn't contested. The only exceptions to this are when a local favorite wins SC (Jackson, Gingrich) but doesn't finish with >10% in IA and NH.
I'll take 16 for 16 over needle nonsense or the Fivethirtyeight freeze. You have to wait a few weeks, but guess what, you have to do that anyway.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)But also... we've never had this many viable candidates in Iowa and NH before. This is uncharted territory.... it is unheard of to have 5 different candidates get at least 13% and at most 26% in a caucus or primary.
When the winner of Iowa only has 26% - whether it is Pete or Bernie - that's a pretty weak win.
Getting 26% in Iowa and 26% in NH is not a resounding win... not like the past wins.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)The Dems have never had 5 make double figures in IA or NH before, but the GOP have...the last 3 times.
There were 4 Dems in double figures in both IA and NH in 04, but Kerry won both and won the nomination easily.
88 had 4 in Iowa, 92 had 4 in NH.
I don't see why 5 is a significant number that 4 isn't.
Iowa and NH only really end up mattering when the same candidate wins them both. Iowa has a better record than NH for the Dems; the opposite for GOP. But put them together, and they do pretty well when they agree. When they don't, getting 10%+ in both, and then winning SC is a high-percentage formula, assuming both IA and NH are contested (so, not 92 when the field conceded Iowa, and Clinton got well over 10% in NH and then won GA as the first southern primary).
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)That makes the winner ... by definition... not a strong winner.
None of those previous winners of both IA and NH got less than 30% of the vote in both.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)28% in Iowa, 29% in NH.
"Uncommitted" won Iowa, but that doesn't exactly exude confidence for Carter either. If getting 30%+ people to stand in your line is what matters, Carter didn't do it.
It didn't matter. He won both and won the nomination.
If the same candidate doesn't win both, McCain in 08 won something like 12% in Iowa in 4th, then won NH and SC (helped that no one took Fred Thompson seriously, and Huckabee wasn't seen as a likely nominee even after winning IA). And there have been a few 3rd place Iowa finishers go on to win nomination.
But you pretty much have to win NH, and certainly finishing outside the top 2 is a likely ticket to campaign suspensionville.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
former9thward
(32,080 posts)No one "lost" the 1992 Iowa caucus because it was not contested. Their Senator, Tom Harkin, was running and no one seriously contested the state. Harkin got 77 % and uncommitted 12%.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)Because if you win IA and NH, historically, you've never failed to be a nominee.
Pretty sure Sanders got more AA votes in Iowa than Biden (he leads either 8 or 9 of the 13 most non-white counties (12% or more minority population). So we'll see how things look when the race gets to South Carolina.
If Biden continues to struggle, there's no guarantee that those votes will be there for him. They weren't there for him in Iowa.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Sound the alarm... Bernie's WAY too popular with working class voters looking for a Champion who will fight for THEM!! This cannot continue... Bernie must be stopped AT ALL COST!!
Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BootinUp
(47,187 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Makes no sense I agree... but little does when it comes to the way Bernie is being treated. Bernie is bringing Democratic coalitions together under the Progressive banner... I know that scares some people.who are in denial. But, when reality sets in, more and more will warm up to the idea... and, consequently, they'll warm up to Bernie!!
Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasTowelie
(112,422 posts)If anything, what I see is that Bernie is unifying the opposition against him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
krissey
(1,205 posts)couple days and I have never considered him as viable. I have always been for Klobuchar and Warren. I even considered that if Biden stumbles, Bloomberg would be there to jump in and would easily take trump. So, I agree.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)It's a sure sign that Bernie will continue surging and winning with the people that COUNT... the working class and poor folks in this country who've been waiting for their Champion who will fight for THEM against tRumpy The Clown's Corporate Socialism and push an aggressive progressive agenda that puts the honest interests of MAIN STREET over the greedy interests of WALL STREET. That is what will GUARAN-DAMN-TEE the tRumpster Fire's ultimate defeat!!
FEEL THE BERN BABY!!!
Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
quakerboy
(13,921 posts)As I read the current data, Bernie got more voters and Pete got more State delegates. And they are tied for National convention delegates. I admit I'm not understanding how over 40 percent can remain undetermined with 97% reporting.
But is more voters a win, or is more state delegates? Or is it a tie if they have the same number of national delegates?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
krissey
(1,205 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ChubbyStar
(3,191 posts)I don't understand.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)A virtual tie is below expectations.
Going into the caucus, he was 4-5 points ahead in most polls.
Buttigieg overperformed by 8-10 points, based on pre-caucus polls.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hassin Bin Sober
(26,339 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gravitycollapse
(8,155 posts)Bidens lack of viability contributed to secondary support for Buttigieg. Viability will not be an issue in primaries.
Buttigiegs support represents a system that just happened to favor his circumstance. But caucuses are not a common system.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Polybius
(15,476 posts)What he didn't expect was Mayor Pete to get those same numbers. It's like this: Let's say you make $20 an hour and your co-worker makes $18. You ask for a raise to $25. You get it, but surprisingly your co-worker get's the same raise.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)I don't think that was the expectation for Iowa. Not all of the polls even had him ahead.
For New Hampshire, I agree though. Given his resounding victory there in 2016 and the fact that he is leading all of the polls there now, if Bernie doesn't win New Hampshire or even if he only barely wins it, he will have underperformed expectations and he may not recover, since the map right after that is not all that friendly to him.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
radius777
(3,635 posts)that all of these new people are clamoring for the revolution - yet turnout was flat and basically the same as 2016... nothing like 2008 when Obama did bring out alot of new people.
Sanders is also the much better known and better funded candidate than Pete, having run last time.
Tie goes to the runner - Mayor Pete is the winner of expectations.
I'd say that Biden is clearly the loser.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)So, it can only add to his already popular vote victory. We'll see how it works out delegate wise soon enough.
Also - ranked choice: Yes!
I voted ranked choice for the leader of my party a few years ago. Didn't get my #1 choice, but happy that my second won - well, satisfied. More that most can wish for these days it seems!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
radius777
(3,635 posts)Pete Buttigieg is on track to win the Iowa caucuses, according to our estimates, which give him a better than 95 percent probability.
It's going to be close regardless, basically a tie, which helps a rising star like Pete more than Sanders who is already well known.
In the 2016 Iowa Caucuses - Sanders (who was fairly unknown then) was aided by a virtual tie with Hillary (who narrowly won).
edit: I see he retracted his prediction based on the satellite returns. Anyway, it's still going to be close between 1 and 2, basically a tie, which benefits the newcomer.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
floppyboo
(2,461 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
melman
(7,681 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
radius777
(3,635 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Congrats to him and his supporters!!
Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Instead of just congratulating the guy on a job well done... no, we can't have THAT!! So, allow me to do the honors... CONGRATS BERNIE!! JOB WELL DONE!!
Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ChubbyStar
(3,191 posts)I just wanted the poster to explain to me why he didn't get what he needed. He got what he needed, he won.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
ChubbyStar
(3,191 posts)It is like a poorly written and badly acted play. I am laughing my ass off, come on people, get your shit together and wake up your brain. People are fed up and they see the truth more clearly than the fucking talking heads, being paid way above their grade. They are lying for good reason, they were hired to do just that. Fuck them.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Bernie/Elizabeth or Elizabeth/Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together & can't be bought!!
Jump on the Bernie Bandwagon & join The Revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)Bernie was projected to walk away from IA with a commanding victory. He didn't. He dropped the ball.
Unless your standards of victory are below basement level, it was not in fact, a job well done. His anemic campaign snapped defeat from the jaws of victory.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to krissey (Reply #7)
Name removed Message auto-removed
melman
(7,681 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BootinUp
(47,187 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JudyM
(29,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JudyM
(29,277 posts)their model?
This is almost unbelievable mismanagement.
Although if trumpers were jamming the phone lines we need to give them a bit of a break on the delay.
If there were no delay they wouldve reported without the satellites though? I mean WTH?!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)Addressable to Nate Cohn of the New York Times, if he still works there tomorrow.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JudyM
(29,277 posts)Betting his oversight was inextricably caused by the chaotically poor process management within Iowas party leadership, though. Pity if he wasnt made aware of the new sat locations/demographics.
On a brighter note, welcome to DU, HowardZ!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HowardZinnfandel
(23 posts)But nothing surprises me anymore, except the time I got laid off haha.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JudyM
(29,277 posts)Not getting the reporting system in place until the week of? This app contract was done at the last minute or else there was no oversight of its progress...? Thats gross mismanagement, IMO.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
tirebiter
(2,539 posts)One person three votes not so much
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)Thats the truth of it all. The very nature of a caucus excludes a ton of voters. Its utter shit. But it is what it is and Bernie and Pete are going to likely take the same amount of delegates or at least nearly the same... not that Iowa has many to offer. Its time to stop giving a shit about Iowa.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
mysteryowl
(7,396 posts)They also need to have rank choice primaries.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)nt
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Mayor Pete.
I'm quite happy that Mayor Pete will come out of this a winner! Quite happy with VP Biden as well.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laelth
(32,017 posts)We learned very little from Iowa this year, and that's O.K. 49 states have yet to chime in.
-Laelth
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
democrattotheend
(11,607 posts)That the results are this insanely close. Never say your vote doesn't matter!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided