Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIowa caucus: Here's a map of precincts where the data appear to be irregular
FEB 7 2020
A common error, according to CNBCs analysis, is that in many precincts possibly more than 80 the number of votes counted in whats known as the final alignment was greater than the number in the first alignment.
That discrepancy is theoretically impossible under caucus rules, which are determined by the state party.
The IDP said in a statement on Friday that due to delays in reporting and some inconsistencies in data it issued new guidance to presidential campaigns. The party said it will allow them to submit documentary evidence of incorrect data by Saturday at 1 p.m. ET.
It also extended the deadline for campaigns to file a requests for a recanvass or recount from Friday to Monday at 1 p.m. ET.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/iowa-caucus-map-of-precincts-where-the-data-appear-to-be-irregular.html
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
squirecam
(2,706 posts)Atop the primary field.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)That could have implications for allocated SDE's. Considering that Pete got most of the realignment votes, and the difference in SDE's between him and Bernie is so small (currently less than 2), that means we don't really know who won Iowa in terms of SDE's.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,880 posts)He missed his second ballot chances.. something he just insisted on. When it came time to caucus, (that is why we call it a caucus..people talk to each other) his people walked out. We were gobsmacked. Petes and Elizabeths precinct captains came in and talked to us, and they got a lot of 2nd choice votes. For someone who was supposed to do so well with the caucus, I have not a clue what they were thinking ...The next day I read in here that some twitter thing went out that they should just walk out and not interact with other candidates voters.. go figure
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Some twitter thing went around?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,880 posts)and someone else or leave. isn't that nuts.. and my guess is that it went out to his captains, they are the ones that release their people to go home
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JudyM
(29,294 posts)And if it went out to all his precinct captains... if it was widespread it could account for some of the surge to Buttigieg. Why it would not encourage folks to go to Warrens camp, if anything, makes it highly suspect.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,880 posts)Someone posted it up..They could release their people that was fine.. and then the Precinct Captains should have come into our room with everyone else. Because once your candidate is viable you cannot change your vote.. so what they are doing is talking to people whose candidate is not viable.. they only needed their captains in there to try and get the second ballot votes ..So not everyone had to stay once their vote was viable.
Now apparently after the app did not work or our people did not know how to download it.. I have never got a clear view on that one..but they were going to call the numbers in.. and the republicans jammed the lines so the votes could not get called in.. oh joy.. its an old tactic of theirs and it worked
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JudyM
(29,294 posts)that you saw both at the caucus site and on DU? Same tweet?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,880 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)...how there would be a higher final alignment vote total than first alignment. If anything, something like what you described would make the discrepancy even more mysterious.
For example:
1000 people show up for first alignment.
After first alignment, 300 people leave the room for various reasons, leaving 700 people remaining.
Final alignment vote count is 1100...
Bit weird, yeah?
Now let's say those 300 people stayed in the room and realigned with other candidates and the final alignment count was still 1100. Still doesn't make sense.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,880 posts)the best way I can explain it was that is was a primary in the middle of a caucus. It was so different. Before if you were not viable and you wanted your vote to count you could choose another candidate to stand with and that was it. This time they had this totally f*cked up first choice and second choice on on ballot on opposite sides of the same ballot. Someone had to stay up late to think that one up seriously.. I am blaming my party apparatus here.. they should have just put their foot down on this crazy thing.. We are either a caucus or a primary. This was going to be a total screw up .. I came home with such a headache.. and I felt so sorry for all those volunteers at caucus trying to get this thing to work.. they had the patience of JOB.. I give them a lot of credit.. so glad I was not working it this time..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)The caucus always involved a first alignment and final alignment. There's a very good chance counting mistakes have occurred in previous caucuses, but we had no way of knowing about it because there were no paper records.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,880 posts)We have to be registered Democrats and sign in and they have our names and addresses. If there is ever a question at any caucus you can call the participants.. its not a big deal.. they know who what when where and how ..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)We don't know who won the popular vote in 2016, for example, when the margin of victory for Hillary Clinton was less than 1% in terms of SED's. It's possible Bernie won that popular vote but lost SDE's like this year (maybe).
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,880 posts)We have not had first and second choices before. We have never had a signed ballot before. We registered came in voted.. and if our candidate did not make the 15% of our particular caucus, then those people could either go and join with another canididate/.. that is the caucus part..people talk to each other to see if someone else is in their philosophical wheelhouse and they can join them and have their vote count or leave and not count.
Now we have this ballot.. first choice.. (if not viable) then second choice. So unlike how we used to caucus, you have one vote (maybe two tries at it) but only one vote counts.. now you have a first vote and a second vote? did the second vote cancel out the first vote? see what I mean..
You get one vote that counts. You can do it by caucus or primary.. but you only get one vote that counts. now someone somewhere came up with this fruit loopy way of counting that has everyone confused. Even the candidates.
Again Herb, my state party here should have told who ever brought this crazy idea forward ..no thank you.. we are a caucus. or we are a primary.. you can not be both..
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)That is exactly what the paper ballots were keeping track of. Nothing about the process changed. I have also caucused before, and it's not hard. It would not be hard to write down the candidate I support on the first alignment, then write down the candidate I support on the second alignment.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Peacetrain
(22,880 posts)We have Pete claiming victory because he got the delegates.. We have Bernie claiming victory because he has the first ballot votes.
Since we are a caucus that actually selects delegates Pete has the winning hand.
But since we did a ballot, Bernie is claiming victory because he has more actual votes.
See what I mean. Its like Hillary won the actual voters and if we voted directly she is the President. But because we use the electoral college Trump is President.
We are a caucus state, and I think Pete smartly used a caucus strategy to get the most delegates. It is not about the actual votes of any one caucus but the percentages.
Using a first and second choice ballot is trying to put a primary in the middle of the caucus. Only one person can win. And we choose delegates by percentages.
Now quite frankly I would rather be a primary state with a direct vote. But it is what it is and I live in a caucus state. We can only use one model.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Uncle Joe
(58,459 posts)Thanks for the thread Donkees.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Progressive2020
(713 posts)Last I heard, the Associated Press would still not call the race, it is too close to call. The rest of the media rushed to anoint Buttigieg early on. The problem with that is that many precincts leaning towards Sanders- urban precincts and college towns- were not yet counted near the start. That is why Bernie got closer and closer the more that those later precincts were counted.
Anyway, whoever won, the victory is razor thin. No decisive victory, for either Sanders or Mayor Pete. In terms of Media coverage and a boost to his campaign, it is clear that Buttigieg is the winner. He has gone from dark horse to front runner. And Sanders is the loser, in that the bar was raised high for him in Iowa. Anything less than a decisive victory in Iowa is not a win for him.
I do think that Bernie can come back in New Hampshire, but Mayor Pete is surging. It is an interesting process. I am not much of a Mayor Pete supporter. If I was to go for a moderate, it would be Amy Klobuchar for me. I do not think that Pete is experienced enough. Mayor of a small city in the Midwest is not enough for me. That said, he is still kind of a wunderkind, and if he wins the nomination, I will certainly vote for him and fight for him to win. We will see what develops.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JudyM
(29,294 posts)and Pete, AFAIK, hasnt managed large complex operations.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
krissey
(1,205 posts)like NO Democrat.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
W_HAMILTON
(7,876 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)It could just be as simple as a counting or math error.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
stopdiggin
(11,387 posts)and, yes .. mistakes are a given (any time people are involved).
Cheating? Extremely unlikely.
-snip-
Mandy McClure, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Democratic Party (I.D.P.), said the party reported the data as provided to it by the precinct caucuses.
The caucus math work sheet is the official report on caucus night to the I.D.P., and the I.D.P. reports the results as delivered by the precinct chair, she said. This form must be signed by the caucus chair, the caucus secretary and representatives from each campaign in the room who attest to its accuracy. Under the rules of the delegate selection process, delegates are awarded based off the record of results as provided by each precinct caucus chair.
-snip-
so everyone .. including the campaign representatives .. approves the numbers at the end of the evening.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)Especially given the suspect results from the satellite caucuses which appear to have been run by Sanders supporters.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
krissey
(1,205 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
bobbieinok
(12,858 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SharonClark
(10,014 posts)Sanders campaign organized several satellite locations for Spanish-speakers that would discourage them from attending their regular (neighborhood) caucus and, some suggest, keep them in line. The formula for awarding SDEs at satellite caucuses is what should be investigated.
From the NY Times article, "A Sanders campaign adviser said that of the 483 people who attended Spanish satellite caucuses, 430 went for Mr. Sanders.
The partys published results show how Mr. Sanders was able to dominate at many of the satellite locations. At one caucus held at the Better Day Cafe in Storm Lake, Mr. Sanders was supported by 93 of the 103 participants and picked up 2.98 S.D.E.s the largest delegate haul for any candidate from any precinct in the state.
But Mr. Sanders may also be benefiting from the way the state party is allocating S.D.E.s to the satellite caucuses. Close watchers of the results have raised questions about which formula the party is using; under other interpretations of the rules, the satellite caucuses would not be quite as valuable to Mr. Sanders in the S.D.E. count."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
stopdiggin
(11,387 posts)on "discrepancies and problems" (and what may have led to them) in yesterdays' edition. Worth looking at if someone is interested in what actually transpired.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html
the most likely cause for the "overvote" on final tally was
1) people arriving late were allowed to caucus (which would violate the rules)
2) "undecideds" were not properly counted in the initial tally (assuming they would be "tallied" as they joined a candidate further on)
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to Donkees (Original post)
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bobbieinok
(12,858 posts)When there were many there several people worked to count the number
Often parents brought teen children (which visually confused counting numbers)
I enjoyed every time. It made voting more real, talking with and trying to persuade neighbors
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Donkees
(31,481 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided