If one adds up the totals from the more or less avowed "moderate candidates", that being Buttigieg, Biden, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg, you end up with 40%

If you add up the totals from the more or less avowed "progressive" and "maverick" candidates, that being Sanders, Warren, Yang, Gabbard, and Steyer, you end up with 48%, with the "mavericks" accounting for 11% of that 48%. I am working on the assumption that most (but not all) of the support for the "mavericks" would break toward the "progressives" if those "mavericks" drop out, which would now have our electorate pretty closely divided between our two main camps.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

MH1

(17,600 posts)

5. I think you are wrong about Yang and Steyer supporters.

Reply to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #3)

Sun Feb 9, 2020, 11:50 AM

Feb 2020

But maybe we'll get some data showing what really happened, when it does happen.

Why do I think you are mistaken -

Yang: from people I know who like him, they like his clear competence combined with innovative policy ideas. Which wins when he is no longer in the race? I think by that time people will realize the desperation of the situation enough to go with competence (or if you prefer, "sure thing" ). Every Yang supporter I have met seems to be highly intelligent, thinking, and open for discussion on issues. Sanders supporters I have met tend more to be locked-in to Sanders and whatever tropes they have learned within their associations with other Sanders supporters.

If Warren surges and passes Sanders, I could see some Yang supporters jumping to her.

(yes this is completely observational and potentially non-representative. But I'm going with my gut here.)

Steyer - harder call, but again, by the time he drops (probably right after Super Tuesday when he will clearly be non-viable - and I like the guy!), people will be more face-to-face with the real choice. I predict a more even split with many voters going to whoever is leading, or perceived as more electable, of the moderates.

For both, the assessment obviously changes a bit depending on the strength of any endorsement given by the dropping candidate when they drop out. I don't think that will be a determining factor for most of their supporters - most people already know their #2 - but it would have some influence.