Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum**Brand Spaking New Nevada Poll ** BS 25% JB 18% EW 13% TS 11% MP 10% AK 10% TG 0%
Sanders led the pack with 25 percent of respondents expressing support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden (18 percent) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (13 percent).
Businessman Tom Steyer (11 percent), former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (10 percent) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (10 percent) were clustered close behind.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/sanders-holds-lead-heading-into-nevadas-democratic-caucuses-poll-finds-1957583/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ilsa
(61,697 posts)Sanders led the pack with 25 percent of respondents expressing support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden (18 percent) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (13 percent).
Businessman Tom Steyer (11 percent), former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (10 percent) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (10 percent) were clustered close behind.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,025 posts)Want to add that the polling started Tuesday, the day of the NH primary, and went through yesterday.
Favorability of the caniddates:
Sanders (71 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable) and Warren (71 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) had the highest favorability among the candidates. They were followed by Biden (68 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable), Steyer (64 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable), Klobuchar (62 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable) and Buttigieg (59 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable).
Favorability is particularly important during a caucus, as some voters may have to support their second or third choice if their ideal candidate does not get the support of 15 percent of caucusgoers at a particular site.
Voters' priorities:
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)Even though its from the RJ. What is interesting is the favorables and unfavorables.
Sanders (71 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable) and Warren (71 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable) had the highest favorability among the candidates. They were followed by Biden (68 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable), Steyer (64 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable), Klobuchar (62 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable) and Buttigieg (59 percent favorable, 25 percent unfavorable).
Amy seems to be the least despised candidate.
If this poll is accurate, its going to be an interesting caucus.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,025 posts)the others.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)Its bad new for Biden. He has the highest unfavorables. Which means he is less likely to gain support in the second round.
Biden needs to show up in NV pretty quick.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,025 posts)Sanders campaign and out-organized by Warren, who's devoted a lot of resources to Nevada.
And Biden's unfavorable rating isn't much higher than those for Sanders and Warren, and his favorable rating is nearly as high.
The reason Klobuchar's unfavorable rating is so low is that she apparently has 21% of respondents saying they don't know anything about her, or enough about her to have an opinion.
For Sanders and Warren and Biden, the group with no opinion was between 4% and 6%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)If Amy wasnt viable, Id caucus for Joe.
But I wonder how many other fellow Nevadans will have that opinion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,025 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)But there is a long stretch and a debate between now and then.
Its not like debates have any impact.....
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cuthbert Allgood
(4,961 posts)since him not winning has always been a good sign. Unique strategy.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)needs to deploy enough resources to maximize his chance to win. Steyer is making inroads with AA voters there and Bloomberg might also undercut Bidens support throwing that race to Sanders
possibly. But a win in Nevada is not a green light for Sanders in the south, where he must prevail, and yet it does not remove a gateway to the south from Biden as long as he comes in second. Coming in first could certainly help him gain in S.C.
Glad you pointed out the MOE, hpd, showing Biden at this point competitive with Sanders. Interestingly, Sanders is stepping a bit back from M4All, his campaigns key promise, in time to make an adjustment for the Culinary Unions stance on healthcare.
They are playing hard to get, as I read their decision not to endorse.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,643 posts)go really...She, Warren (sad-my second choice) and Buttigieg are out by Carolina...latest would be super Tuesday. I would also add that other candidates have not face the attacks Biden has...so we shall see...but with such little AA vote the three candidates mentioned about have nowhere to go.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
tgards79
(1,415 posts)No one is going to get near 68% on any round. He'll be fine in the second round if these numbers are anything close to correct, because he is the #2 choice overall. He's above the 15% threshold, most of the others are not.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,698 posts)Surge!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)If this poll is accurate, everyone is bunched at the range where they might not be viable. Their second choices really matter.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PufPuf23
(8,813 posts)because 2016 essentially had two candidates, HRC and BS, versus the broad stable of Democratic candidates that have competed in campaigning and the debates in 2020.
But you know this.
At this point I expect Bloomberg to be the Democratic candidate for POTUS in the GE.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cuthbert Allgood
(4,961 posts)Odd that he wouldn't get the same percentage when there are, what, 7 people?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
brooklynite
(94,698 posts)Not admirers of his policies? Well, I won't argue with you there...
BTW, wasn't Bernie supposed to attract NEW voters?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cuthbert Allgood
(4,961 posts)You do realize that Bernie vs everyone else is doing better than anyone else vs everyone else, right?
But, yeah, we now apparently live in a world on DU where winning is losing and losing is winning. 'Cause that makes sense.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Dem2
(8,168 posts)Is it spanking or spackling?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,698 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)Will be split though.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brooklynite
(94,698 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,025 posts)Thread starts here, full text below:
Link to tweet
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/sanders-holds-lead-heading-into-nevadas-democratic-caucuses-poll-finds-1957583/
Caveats:
1. GOP pollster (who said Laxalt would be gov) polling Dem electorate.
2. Small sample (413)
3. Caucuses notoriously hard to poll and with Iowa Effect, early voting and Bernie/Pete/Warren with best orgs, hard to tell.
4. Full impact (if any) of Culinary not in here.
Not saying poll is not correct for the time it was taken, but turnout model used by pollster is key to accuracy of any survey. And in all my years covering Nevada, this turnout is hardest to predict because of Iowa/early voting and tremendous turnout machines by some candidates.
I have repeatedly said Bernie is the favorite because he did well here in '16 and this time he has adults running the show. It's the real deal. But if Culinary revs up the machine and turns people out (with no guidance), what is that impact? Nobody knows.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)That is all.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LeftTurn3623
(628 posts)will Amy Klobuchar have the decency to drop out after Nevada? This would be another 4th or 5th place finish
If Joe gets a 2nd place finish here and wins SC he would be right back in the thick of things
This looks like the beginning of the end for Pete : (
Warren will finish a distance 3rd but somehow she will get the nomination finishing 3rd & 4th place and she should not drop out of the race
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
judeling
(1,086 posts)This is great news for Amy. I mean great.
I am almost willing to project Amy as the second place finisher to Bernie right now. With a real shot at winning.
With this money has ceased to be a problem for her. I cannot tell you how jazzed I am right now.
Klobal Warming is real.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LeftTurn3623
(628 posts)I actually hope you are right - I would not mind Amy becoming the top person against Bloomberg & Sanders. I just do not see it happen but keep up the faith!
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
judeling
(1,086 posts)First if you consider her exits they are heavily weighted to late deciders. That is the classic Head before Heart profile. Those late deciders are not just undecided by any means.
She is even with Pete right now in that poll. Coming from around 4% to his 8%. That indicates real movement but more in her favor.
She is the Daughter of a union family, it a state that has shown a great willingness to vote for female candidates. She was a Harry Reid protégé.
She really does extremely well with those who go to church once a week or more. That will play very well even in the Mormon north.
No I really feel good about her chances there. I will say right now that if she does manage to finish a strong Second to Bernie or eek out a win the "Moderate" lane will collapse around her very fast.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
squirecam
(2,706 posts)And everyone ties for third with 10-12% of the vote, then no, there is no reason to drop out.
Amy just got a ton of money.
No one is going to just quit because people want them to. As long as they have money and equal support in the vote, there is no incentive to leave before Super Tuesday.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BusyBeingBest
(8,059 posts)Also, Tom Steyer is an annoying distraction at this point.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
squirecam
(2,706 posts)At the LULAC forum. As for his aspirational goals, he doesnt have the legislarptive experience to implement them.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
wisteria
(19,581 posts)Go Joe!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
It starts next week.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden