RCP: CA poll numbers

[left-of-center2012]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-6879.html

[jmg257]

1. Oops never mind!

[Squinch]

2. Fuuuuck.

[jmg257]

3. Bernie likely to get a big haul. Here is how delegates are awarded..

That’s simple stuff compared with how the delegates must be won. Among all states, California has the Mother Lode of Democratic delegates — 495. The California delegation to the 2020 Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee July 13-16 will be comprised of 416 pledged delegates, 35 alternates and 79 unpledged delegates.

How they will be distributed is pretty much the opposite of winner-take-all.

About 35 percent of the delegates are determined by the statewide vote, on proportional basis. But no statewide delegates will be awarded to candidates who gain less than 15 percent of the vote.

A larger number of delegates will be determined by the vote in each of California’s 53 congressional districts, divided proportionally. Again, candidates who fail to meet the 15 percent threshold within a district get no delegates from that district.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/columnists/story/2020-01-03/delegate-distribution-may-lessen-california-primary

[Moderateguy]

6. So basically it'll take 3 weeks to get the proper delegate counts

[jmg257]

8. Ha good point! LOTS of voters and new ways to register, vote, etc.

Those complexities so far have been overshadowed by changes in the primary voting process that have election officials concerned about logistics and taking extra steps to avoid voter confusion.

For the first time, voters can register or re-register through Election Day at any polling place. To handle the load, some counties will be setting up satellite election offices to make it easier for people to register and vote early. The San Diego County Board of Supervisors have approved four, which, in addition to the main Registrar of Voters office, means each supervisorial district will have a regional voting center open a few days ahead of the election — in addition to the traditional neighborhood polling places that open on Election Day.

Elections officials have also been mailing voters information on what they may need to do to participate in a given presidential primary. For instance, people registered “no party preference” can vote in the Democratic race, but if they vote by mail they will get a nonpartisan ballot unless they indicate in advance they want a Democratic one. Only registered Republicans can vote in the GOP presidential primary.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/columnists/story/2020-01-03/delegate-distribution-may-lessen-california-primary

[Sparkly]

4. Oh FFS...

[jimfields33]

5. Beautiful. It should hold and improve after today.

[jmg257]

7. From 538...

Average as of Feb. 22
ACTIVE CANDIDATES
Sanders
26.5%

Bloomberg
15.2%

Biden
13.1%

Warren
11.2%

Buttigieg
11.2%

Klobuchar
5.7%

Steyer
3.2%

Gabbard
2.4%

[jimfields33]

9. Improved already. Ha!

Getting up to the 40’s would be golden.