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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:36 PM

 

Biden may have run a fairly strong second tonight.

He needs to strongly make the point in the next debate that he still has the time and the ability to unite the moderate lane and beat Bernie. Not much room left for Amy, Pete or Elizabeth now. Super Tuesday may be too late.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Reply Biden may have run a fairly strong second tonight. (Original post)
MontanaFarmer Feb 2020 OP
MontanaFarmer Feb 2020 #1
squirecam Feb 2020 #3
W_HAMILTON Feb 2020 #5
bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #7
MontanaFarmer Feb 2020 #10
Celerity Feb 2020 #15
bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #2
squirecam Feb 2020 #4
bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #6
squirecam Feb 2020 #8
bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #13
Celerity Feb 2020 #17
Moderateguy Feb 2020 #9
bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #12
Moderateguy Feb 2020 #14
bucolic_frolic Feb 2020 #16
squirecam Feb 2020 #19
Kaleva Feb 2020 #11
TexasTowelie Feb 2020 #18
FBaggins Feb 2020 #20
pinkstarburst Feb 2020 #21
MontanaFarmer Feb 2020 #22

Response to MontanaFarmer (Original post)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:39 PM

1. Biden may, ironically,

 

benefit from Amy winning her home state on ST.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MontanaFarmer (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:41 PM

3. Biden's only chance is to win SC big

 

And deny Bernie as many delegates as he can on Super Tuesday. He needs Amy to win MN.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MontanaFarmer (Reply #1)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:44 PM

5. Klobuchar will have cost the other moderates far more delegates by staying in the race...

 

...than she will have prevented Sanders from winning delegates at that point.

For someone that doesn't want a democratic socialist at the top of the ticket, she has been a net benefit to that happening.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to W_HAMILTON (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:47 PM

7. I agree with that, she's only VP material though a strong one

 

It is time for the field to consolidate, but I think they'll stay around long enough to see what Bloomberg is up to
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to W_HAMILTON (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:49 PM

10. I think that's probably only true WRT new Hampshire.

 

Biden ran crappy in Iowa and a strong second in Nevada so far, with little effect from Amy. Maybe if Biden had not slumbered through the first 6 months of the race he could have already consolidated the not-berners?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to W_HAMILTON (Reply #5)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:52 PM

15. the big effet she had was her blocking Pete from beating Bernie clearly in NH

 

allowing Sanders to say he 'won' the first two states, which gave him a lot of momentum going forward, including NV.

I am NOT saying Pete would have went on to win the nomination at all, I am simply looking at the combined moderates block Sanders from outright wins whenever possible and trying to keep Bernie from hitting 1600 (roughly 40%, the level where it becomes impossible to stop him at a multi-ballot convention) and also, given hom far less momentum that he gained from 'winning' in NH.

Now, she does need to stay in to block Sanders in Minnesota.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MontanaFarmer (Original post)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:41 PM

2. Never write off Lizzie

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #2)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:42 PM

4. What Super Tuesday state is she winning?

 

She’s currently losing even Massachusetts to Bernie.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to squirecam (Reply #4)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:45 PM

6. Ask Mike Bloomberg

 

if the bruises are fading
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:48 PM

8. She hurt him. Great.

 

What Super Tuesday state is she winning? She has ZERO chance at gaining a majority.

The only two that can are Biden or Sanders. Otherwise Sanders gets a plurality and it goes to the convention.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to squirecam (Reply #8)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:51 PM

13. It's early to call this race over

 

Projections are extrapolation for now.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to squirecam (Reply #8)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:56 PM

17. even Biden is so not a sure thing at this point. He amy become this, but it is going to be a titanic

 

struggle, and IF he loses SC, he is probably done as well. Losing all the primaries (first 4) will so hurt him on Super Tuesday. He maybe end up 2nd today, but Sanders still crushed him, and beat him with non-white voters.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:48 PM

9. What good did it do her?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Moderateguy (Reply #9)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:50 PM

12. She got a bump in the polls this week

 

not reflected in NV because of early voting. See what happens ahead.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #12)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:52 PM

14. I do not see any NV early voting results do you?

 

The numbers right now are based on people who showed up today— and she’s 4th
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Moderateguy (Reply #14)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:53 PM

16. Oh yes, they're showing up in tonight's results

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #16)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 10:02 PM

19. She didn't get a bump.

 

The Bellagio caucus had six voters for Warren. Biden had 40+ and Bernie had 70+.

Warren hurt Bloomberg. But that isn’t taking away and Bernie voters and the moderate lane is too clogged. It’s simple at this point.

ONLY sanders or Biden can get an actual majority. Not Warren. Not Pete. Not Amy. Not Bloomberg.

The only other option is a sanders plurality. Which goes to the convention.

If Biden bombs, and loses SC, then it’s either a Sanders majority or Plurality.

The math is clear at this point. And anyone not willing to face it simply gives Sanders the nomination.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #6)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:50 PM

11. Mike would probably say that Liz isn't winning any Super Tuesday state.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MontanaFarmer (Original post)

Sat Feb 22, 2020, 09:56 PM

18. Buttigieg is getting close to the 15% mark in Nevada.

 

If he is viable, then that will cost Bernie about 4 delegates and Biden about 2 delegates.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to MontanaFarmer (Original post)

Sun Feb 23, 2020, 07:19 AM

20. In later news... he didn't

 

He’s probably second... but by no means a “strong” second.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to MontanaFarmer (Original post)

Sun Feb 23, 2020, 09:02 AM

21. Biden needs to shake things up

 

If he wants to stay in this, he's got to change up the game.

There is zero motivation for Liz, Amy or Pete to drop out. They have pledged delegates. If they drop out, their delegates will be released and they lose that bargaining power at the convention. They're getting to be in debates and are still getting donations. And anything could happen between now and July. Scandals. Medical events. Anything.

Biden's troubles are about to get a lot worse with Bloomberg entering the picture on Super Tuesday. He already has Pete and Elizabeth (and Amy, to a lesser extent) dividing up the non-Sanders vote. Now he'll have Bloomberg as well.

The only reason Amy, Pete or Elizabeth should drop out is if one of the front-runners makes them a VP offer now. I wonder if Biden will go ahead and do this--most likely to Warren, but maybe to Pete. It would potentially consolidate some of those voters as well as help with crowding in the moderate field. Otherwise, I don't see how he slows Sanders.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to pinkstarburst (Reply #21)

Sun Feb 23, 2020, 09:09 AM

22. I still think he's going to get some bump here in the next week.

 

Warren too. Most of this vote was made prior to the debate. Bloomberg should lose some vote share. There's no path for Amy or Pete through the south IMO, their path to the nomination is a contested convention. That's Warren's path too if we're being honest; she may make the best case from within the current field as the unity candidate.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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