Poll: Sanders would sink House Democrats in key battleground districts.

[RandySF]

Bernie Sanders’ nomination could drag down vulnerable House Democrats trying to hold onto their competitive districts, according to a new poll conducted for Mike Bloomberg's campaign that is circulating among members — providing fresh data for moderates warning about a wipeout if Sanders emerges to lead their ticket against President Donald Trump.

The poll of voters in more than 40 battleground House districts currently held by Democrats — conducted by Global Strategy Group for the Bloomberg campaign and obtained by POLITICO from two sources — found that Sanders is less popular than Trump and loses significant support when hit for holding socialist positions. Sanders is a self-described Democratic socialist, a distinction that his opponents are starting to draw more frequently in the days following the Vermont senator’s dominance in Nevada. His agenda of "Medicare for All," the "Green New Deal" and guaranteed tuition and debt-free public colleges has rankled more establishment members of the party.

The poll found Sanders essentially running even with Trump in a head-to-head match-up across the districts, trailing the incumbent by just one point. But Trump opens up 6-point advantage after a list of negative messages about Sanders' ideology and alleged ineffectiveness in the Senate is presented to poll respondents.

But Sanders' potential impact extends beyond the presidential race. A plurality of voters, 39 percent, say they will be less likely to vote for a Democrat for Congress if Sanders is the Democratic nominee and his ideas are folded into the party platform. That's nearly double the 21 percent who say they would be more likely to vote for a Democrat for Congress, while 34 percent say it wouldn’t impact their vote.

A separate memo drafted for Bloomberg’s campaign by the polling firm and also obtained by POLITICO claims “Sanders jeopardizes [the] Democratic majority in House” but doesn’t outright argue Democrats would lose the House if Sanders were the nominee.



https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/25/bloomberg-internal-poll-claims-bernie-would-hurt-downballot-dems-117290

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

1. His supporters could care less

Just get him elected and then a get nothing done administration is all they seem to care about.

[Apollo Zeus]

18. the phrase you are looking for is "could NOT care less"

A Bloomberg candidacy would be devastating not only for 2020 down ticket races but also for 2024 -- "paid influencers" create the illusion of support while financing one's own (doomed) campaign destroys voter engagement.

Bloomberg is helping Trump.

[jimfields33]

2. Stop! This is not even reasonable

Politics is local. Those house representatives will show where they improved the lives of their district.

[RandySF]

3. Split-ticket voting is getting rare these days.

[jimfields33]

6. Good!

That means Bernie will be voted in along the rest of the democratic tickets down the line.

[RandySF]

8. Nope

[Callado119]

14. Nope, it means the rest of the ticket will be dragged down as he gets crushed by trump..

[Progressive dog]

16. Local doesn't help in this because of a few percent

who don't split tickets and even more who stay home.

[democrattotheend]

28. I disagree with that

There is some local aspect, but a lot of people just vote straight ticket, especially in districts where the Congressional race has not gotten national attention. For better or worse, a lot of House elections are heavily affected by either an electoral wave (2006, 2008, 2010, 2018), or by who is at the top of the ticket.

[Moderateguy]

34. Seriously? 95% of the people probably do not know who their congressperson is

[honest.abe]

4. If this is accurate Sanders should never even be considered as our nominee.

We are doomed if this happens and we lose the WH. Its a frightening thought.

[ancianita]

9. Think the rest of the country is frightening itself with these thoughts? W/ some 48 primaries left?

[OliverQ]

5. Bloomberg internal poll? Lol

What a joke.

[evertonfc]

7. So be it. His supporters

insist he will win, we will keep the House.

[dalton99a]

10. It is necessary in order to glorify their leader

[DanTex]

11. LOL. This is a *push poll* by the Bloomberg campaign.

They call people and feed them anti-Bernie smears to try and turn them against Bernie. And then they give the results to the press to try and get a misleading anti-Bernie headline. Please.

[RandySF]

21. I'm sorry you don't like the outcome.

Here is a list of clients.


https://www.globalstrategygroup.com/clients/

[DanTex]

23. The outcome is a predictable joke. I don't mind it one bit. Like other empty anti-Bernie attacks,

nobody's mind is going to be changed by the results of a push-poll.

[Demsrule86]

25. The poll is correct...what will history think of Sanders if he gives Trump four more years I wonder.

I know what I will think...

[DanTex]

27. It's a *push poll*. They read anti-Bernie talking points to the people they poll.

Everyone knows that you can shift polling numbers by the way that questions are asked. This can even happen innocently, which is why pollsters are careful to use neutral wording, and rotate the order names are listed, and so on.

But in this case, it's not even innocent, it's intentional. They read a bunch of anti-Bernie talking points to push his poll numbers down.

[cannabis_flower]

12. A Bloomberg internal poll

You should be embarrassed to even post this entirely dishonest push poll.

[RandySF]

15. This is not a push poll

News agencies do horserace polls, campaigns use polls like this that provide in-depth data that test the positives and negatives of messaging and positions. Here is a list of the polling firm's clients. I'm sorry if you didn't like the outcome. I would be so happy if every candidate was a net positive for the ticket.


https://www.globalstrategygroup.com/clients/

[Mad cow]

20. The methodology is listed in the article...

This poll does not use standard polling practices - they admittedly fed respondents anti-Sanders information.

[RandySF]

22. What is the standard practice?

[democrattotheend]

29. I'm okay with that in this case

I was hoping Bloomberg would do polling like this to test anti-Bernie messages that the Republicans will undoubtedly use.

[honest.abe]

17. Global Strategy Group has a huge client list of mostly Democratic politicians and organizations.

U.S. Senators
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY)
Joe Manchin (WV)
Ed Markey (MA)
Jacky Rosen (NV)

Members of Congress
TJ Cox (CA)
Jason Crow (CO)
Sharice Davids (KS)
Val Demings (FL)
Elliot Engel (NY)
Adriano Espaillat (NY)
Dwight Evans (PA)
Bill Foster (IL)
Josh Gottheimer (NJ)
Denny Heck (WA)
Steven Horsford (NV)
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ)
Ann Kuster (NH)
Nita Lowey (NY)
Sean Patrick Maloney (NY)
Don McEachin (VA)
Jerry McNerney (CA)
Greg Meeks (NY)
Grace Meng (NY)
Joe Morelle (NY)
Jerry Nadler (NY)
Collin Peterson (MN)
Katie Porter (CA)
Kathleen Rice (NY)
Max Rose (NY)
Linda Sanchez (CA)
Mikie Sherrill (NJ)
Abigail Spanberger (VA)
Paul Tonko (NY)
Nydia Velazquez (NY)

State Officeholders
Kate Brown, Governor (OR)
Steve Bullock, Governor (MT)
Andrew Cuomo, Governor (NY)
Dan Malloy, Governor (CT)
John Carney, Governor (DE)
Janet Mills, Governor (ME)
J.B. Pritzker, Governor (IL)
Kathy Hochul, Lt. Governor (NY)
Hector Balderas, Attorney General (NM)
Mark Herring, Attorney General (VA)
Letitia James, Attorney General (NY)
George Jepsen, Attorney General (CT)
Josh Shapiro, Attorney General (PA)
Dan McKee, Lieutenant Governor (RI)
Bethany Hall-Long, Lieutenant Governor (DE)
Susana Mendoza, Comptroller (IL)
Rebecca Dallet, Supreme Court (WI)

Local Officeholders
Val Arkoosh, Montgomery County Commissioner (PA)
Steve Bellone, Suffolk County Executive (NY)
Andy Berke, Chattanooga Mayor (TN)
Bill de Blasio, New York City Mayor (NY)
Luke Bronin, Hartford Mayor (CT)
Byron Brown, Buffalo Mayor (NY)
Laura Curran, Nassau County Executive (NY)
John Cooper, Nashville Mayor (TN)
Wilda Diaz, Perth Amboy Mayor (NJ)
Joe DiVencenzo, Essex County Executive (NJ)
Rahm Emanuel, Chicago Mayor (IL)
Eric Gonzalez, Kings County/Brooklyn District Attorney
Penny Gross, Fairfax County Commissioner (VA)
Joe Hogsett, Indianapolis Mayor (IN)
Melinda Katz, Queens County District Attorney (NY)
Ken Lawrence, Montgomery County District Attorney (PA)
John Olszewski, Baltimore County Executive (MD)
Mike Purzycki, Wilmington Mayor (DE)
Kathy Sheehan, Albany Mayor (NY)
Madeline Singas, Nassau County District Attorney (NY)
Kevin Steele, Montgomery County District Attorney (PA)
Scott Stringer, New York City Comptroller (NY)
Cy Vance, Manhattan District Attorney (NY)
Marty Walsh, Boston Mayor (MA)

Party Committees
Democratic Attorneys General Association
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Democratic Governors Association
Democratic National Committee
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
New York State Democratic Party
New Jersey State Senate and Assembly Caucus

Independent Expenditures
Priorities USA Action
Americans for Responsible Solutions
EMILY’s List
Environmental Defense Action Fund
Everytown for Gun Safety
Sierra Club
FWD.us
General Majority PAC
House Majority PAC
League of Conservation Voters
Planned Parenthood
Senate Majority PAC
Pennsylvanians for Judicial Reform
Chicago Forward
Center for Secure and Modern Elections

https://www.globalstrategygroup.com/clients/

[democrattotheend]

31. I see some good progressives on this list

And from what I recall from when I worked in Washington, this is a pretty decent pollster, though I don't believe I worked with them directly.

[Sloumeau]

13. K&R

[uponit7771]

19. Buh ... buh... buh Sanders would create 20 million new jobs !!!

[Gothmog]

24. The grandson of GHW Bush is rnning this ad in Texas attacking Socialism

TX CD 22 is an open seat with Pete Olson retiring. The DCCC has targeted this seat for flipping. There are 15 candidates in GOP primary including the grandson of GHW Bush. Another candidate, Kathleen Wall, is running in the GOP primary and she spent $6 million in 2018 running in GOP primary for TX CD 2 and did not make GOP primary runoff. I have had Wall block walkers come to my house twice (I live in a very GOP neighborhood) and I have found Wall doorhanger on my door twice now.

Pierce Bush is running against socialism

Link to tweet

Sri Preston Kulkarni is the leading Democrat for this seat (Sri has a GOP type and another person running against him in the Texas Democratic Primary) I texted this ad to Sri and he knew about it already. Sri Preston Kulkarni is a great guy and we need to flip this seat

If sanders is the nominee, we can forget about this seat and we will have Kevin McCarthy as speaker

[dalton99a]

26. A taste of things to come

[beachbumbob]

30. sanders and his supporters really don't care

[honest.abe]

32. Yeah, its seems like its acceptable collateral damage.

The casualties of winning with Bernie.

[lynintenn]

33. They don't care if they Bern the house down.

As long as their idol is elected.

[Sparkly]

35. Many Congresspeople are concerned about this

also reported in the Washington Post.