Democratic Primaries

mysteryowl

(7,396 posts) Thu Feb 27, 2020, 01:38 PM Feb 2020

FiveThirtyEight - projections on (3) Super Tuesday outcomes in response to South Carolina

This is interesting...

The three projections are based on 4,100 simulations.

-1 If Biden wins big in South Carolina
-2 If Biden wins moderately in South Carolina
-3 If Sanders wins in South Carolina

Go to the link to see the charts:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-race-looks-like-if-biden-wins-or-doesnt-win-south-carolina/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

24 replies

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Highlight:

FiveThirtyEight - projections on (3) Super Tuesday outcomes in response to South Carolina (Original Post) mysteryowl Feb 2020 OP

I'm not getting too excited (no telling what the republicans are going to pull) but he could.... George II Feb 2020 #1

Latest polling does not include Clyburn's endorsement. honest.abe Feb 2020 #4

Look like no matter what sanders comes out of Super Tuesday the big winner jimfields33 Feb 2020 #5

But not big enough. The map gets tougher for Sanders after that. honest.abe Feb 2020 #7

That, and his great debate performance on Tuesday and his even better Town Hall last night. George II Feb 2020 #6

+1 honest.abe Feb 2020 #17

Well Zeus69 Feb 2020 #8

In some polls Steyer is up in the mid-high teens. But in those Sanders is down around 11 or 12.... George II Feb 2020 #11

Exactly what you'd think. squirecam Feb 2020 #2

So a big win for Biden in SC could have huge impact on Super Tuesday. honest.abe Feb 2020 #3

Especially Florida.. I think Biden has the lead in Florida.. Peacetrain Feb 2020 #9

This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #12

yep..210 delegates... its a haul Peacetrain Feb 2020 #13

This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #14

And Bernie didn't help himself with his Castro remarks. ehrnst Feb 2020 #24

Florida will be a huge delegate gain for Biden. honest.abe Feb 2020 #15

Yep... March 17th is the Florida Primary.. and seriously Peacetrain Feb 2020 #16

Wow.. I didnt realize it was that soon. honest.abe Feb 2020 #18

This message was self-deleted by its author BlueTillIDie Feb 2020 #10

the nominee will have 50% plus one or more nt msongs Feb 2020 #20

Who are these 'powers that be?' you seem to think 'want to lose?" ehrnst Feb 2020 #21

Did you ever read Nate's post? squirecam Feb 2020 #23

I wonder what the projections would be if Biden wins by 20+ points. honest.abe Feb 2020 #19

Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2020 #22

George II

(67,782 posts)

1. I'm not getting too excited (no telling what the republicans are going to pull) but he could....

Reply to mysteryowl (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 01:41 PM

Feb 2020

....have a big win on Saturday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,680 posts)

4. Latest polling does not include Clyburn's endorsement.

Reply to George II (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 01:50 PM

Feb 2020

So yes, it might be a huge Biden win on Saturday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

jimfields33

(15,923 posts)

5. Look like no matter what sanders comes out of Super Tuesday the big winner

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #4)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 01:59 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,680 posts)

7. But not big enough. The map gets tougher for Sanders after that.

Reply to jimfields33 (Reply #5)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:03 PM

Feb 2020

If Sanders is planning to take the majority delegates he needs a huge win on ST not just a paltry gain of 100 or so delegates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

6. That, and his great debate performance on Tuesday and his even better Town Hall last night.

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #4)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:00 PM

Feb 2020

Keep your fingers and toes crossed.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,680 posts)

17. +1

Reply to George II (Reply #6)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:15 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Zeus69

(391 posts)

8. Well

Reply to George II (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:03 PM

Feb 2020

Great debate, townhall, some Bloomberg fade and Clyburn...

If it's gonna happen, things are lining up.

(effin Steyer tho)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

11. In some polls Steyer is up in the mid-high teens. But in those Sanders is down around 11 or 12....

Reply to Zeus69 (Reply #8)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:07 PM

Feb 2020

...so it appears that Steyer is taking away from Sanders.

I just can't wait until about midnight on Saturday and looking forward to things getting back to the way they should be.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

squirecam

(2,706 posts)

2. Exactly what you'd think.

Reply to mysteryowl (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 01:45 PM

Feb 2020

Only Biden and Sanders have a chance at a majority, or at least the pledged delegate lead, after Super Tuesday.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,680 posts)

3. So a big win for Biden in SC could have huge impact on Super Tuesday.

Reply to mysteryowl (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 01:46 PM

Feb 2020

Instead of Sanders netting 500+ delegates he might only net around 150. Biden will get all that back and more in the following states such as Florida and Mississippi where he is likely to win big.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Peacetrain

(22,878 posts)

9. Especially Florida.. I think Biden has the lead in Florida..

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:04 PM

Feb 2020

Things are about to get really interesting me thinks..

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/484893-poll-biden-retakes-lead-in-florida

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to Peacetrain (Reply #9)

BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.

Peacetrain

(22,878 posts)

13. yep..210 delegates... its a haul

Reply to BlueTillIDie (Reply #12)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:09 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to Peacetrain (Reply #13)

BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)

24. And Bernie didn't help himself with his Castro remarks.

Reply to BlueTillIDie (Reply #12)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:20 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,680 posts)

15. Florida will be a huge delegate gain for Biden.

Reply to Peacetrain (Reply #9)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:10 PM

Feb 2020

Sanders could be zero'd out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Peacetrain

(22,878 posts)

16. Yep... March 17th is the Florida Primary.. and seriously

Reply to honest.abe (Reply #15)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:15 PM

Feb 2020

Biden could take it all... that is only 2 weeks and 5 days away..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,680 posts)

18. Wow.. I didnt realize it was that soon.

Reply to Peacetrain (Reply #16)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:16 PM

Feb 2020

Cheers!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to mysteryowl (Original post)

BlueTillIDie This message was self-deleted by its author.

msongs

(67,433 posts)

20. the nominee will have 50% plus one or more nt

Reply to BlueTillIDie (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:18 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)

21. Who are these 'powers that be?' you seem to think 'want to lose?"

Reply to BlueTillIDie (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:19 PM

Feb 2020

And you clearly didn't read the OP... scared of what it says?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

squirecam

(2,706 posts)

23. Did you ever read Nate's post?

Reply to BlueTillIDie (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:19 PM

Feb 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

honest.abe

(8,680 posts)

19. I wonder what the projections would be if Biden wins by 20+ points.

Reply to mysteryowl (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 02:18 PM

Feb 2020

They didnt run that scenario.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to mysteryowl (Original post)

Name removed Message auto-removed

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