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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:51 PM

 

There will be no brokered convention

The news media pushes this every 4 years but it never happens. The convention won't go beyond a first vote. None have since the 50s.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Arrow 31 replies Author Time Post
Reply There will be no brokered convention (Original post)
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 OP
msongs Feb 2020 #1
PatSeg Feb 2020 #4
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #5
Moderateguy Feb 2020 #14
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #23
Bucky Feb 2020 #16
AGeddy Feb 2020 #2
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #6
AGeddy Feb 2020 #9
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #12
AGeddy Feb 2020 #13
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #21
empedocles Feb 2020 #3
First Speaker Feb 2020 #7
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #8
Laelth Feb 2020 #28
The Velveteen Ocelot Feb 2020 #10
HarlanPepper Feb 2020 #18
The_Counsel Feb 2020 #29
thesquanderer Feb 2020 #11
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #24
totodeinhere Feb 2020 #15
Moderateguy Feb 2020 #19
totodeinhere Feb 2020 #22
Moderateguy Feb 2020 #30
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #25
democrattotheend Feb 2020 #26
Dem4Life1102 Feb 2020 #31
Bucky Feb 2020 #20
honest.abe Feb 2020 #17
Aaron Pereira Feb 2020 #27

Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:52 PM

1. who would want candidate so ineffective they couldnt get the first ballot? nt

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:54 PM

4. True, but everything is different

 

these days than anything we've ever seen before. After Trump, I'm thinking anything is possible.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:54 PM

5. What usually happens in one of the delegate leaders

 

makes a deal with the 3rd and/or 4th place candidates and they direct their delegates to vote for one of the leaders.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Reply #5)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:21 PM

14. Not on the 1st ballot

 

Pledged delegates mean they are pledged to their candidate on the 1st ballot.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Moderateguy (Reply #14)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:52 PM

23. And candidates can release their delegates

 

to vote their conscience or direct them to vote for someone else.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:39 PM

16. Um, not quite how it works

 

First off, getting a majority from the diverse Democratic delegations on the first ballot is not a measurement skill, but of popularity and the popularity of a candidates ideas

Second off, working a convention and winning coalitions is it extremely important political ability. So if anything, getting nominated off the second ballot would reveal a very real and critical skillset that a candidate needs to govern.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:53 PM

2. None of the previous ones had these rules, or this many viable candidates

 

Or a billionaire with unlimited funds throwing himself into the race.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to AGeddy (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:56 PM

6. That's what they said 4 years ago

 

with the GOP convention. Didn't happen.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Reply #6)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:00 PM

9. GOP 4 years ago had winner-take-all states. Dems in 2020 don't.

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to AGeddy (Reply #9)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:20 PM

12. Nor did they Democrats in 16 or 08 or 08

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Reply #12)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:21 PM

13. And in those years, Dems had smaller field and different rules regarding Superdelegates

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to AGeddy (Reply #13)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:50 PM

21. Like that will make a difference

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:54 PM

3. Important concept. The media frenzy, tends to be self-promoting, then fizzles out.

 

Like with the many Dem candidates over the last year or so. So many 'surges', so many 'fizzles'.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:57 PM

7. Nothing ever happens--until it does.

 

...a brokered convention would be unusual and sensational. The media class would reach for the smelling salts, at messy, smelly democracy breaking out. But when you consider how many things the past five years that "couldn't" happen have happened...a convention going past the first ballot wouldn't even make the top ten list.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to First Speaker (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 04:58 PM

8. What things in the last 5 years?

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to First Speaker (Reply #7)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 06:20 PM

28. Hear! Hear!

 

The Titanic was unsinkable ... until it sank.

-Laelth
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:03 PM

10. The guy they nominated in 1968 didn't run in any of the primaries.

 

Weird things can happen in weird years.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:43 PM

18. Agreed.

 

We should all probably get out of the prediction business.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #10)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 06:28 PM

29. That's Also Why They Have the System They Have Now.

 

Until '68 EVERY convention was brokered to some extent. Since then, virtually none of them are. The '76 GOP Convention was the last one that was even in doubt after Day One--and that one involved the sitting President....
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:03 PM

11. "None have since the 50s" has no bearing on what will happen this time.

 

But who do you think will get enough delegates to get the nomination on the first vote?
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #11)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:55 PM

24. I have no idea

 

But Iíve seen the idea of a convention going past a first ballot too many times to take it seriously.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:35 PM

15. I think the most likely scenario is Bernie goes in with a big lead over second

 

place but not quite a majority. If that happens then one or more of the also ran candidates would probably withdraw and endorse the front runner putting him over the top. They would do this in the interest of party unity knowing that only a united party can beat Trump.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #15)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:43 PM

19. You still keep your delegates on the 1st ballot..

 

Even if you withdraw, drop dead and or diagnosed as patient zero for the coronavirus
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Moderateguy (Reply #19)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:50 PM

22. They can release their delegates if they want to.

 

Of course the released delegates would not have to follow the lead of the withdrawing candidate and go for the front runner but many probably would.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #22)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 06:35 PM

30. I stand corrected

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to Moderateguy (Reply #19)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:57 PM

25. Not true

 

at all. All candidates can release their delegates before the first ballot.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Reply #25)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 06:02 PM

26. Are you sure?

 

This is the first convention under the new rules, so I don't know that much about how it works.

Despite what she said last night, I could potentially see Elizabeth Warren releasing her delegates if it comes to that, knowing some of them might go to Bernie if she has no chance. But it depends how well Bernie is doing in polls against Trump at that point. If it looks like he might win, she could be the hero and potentially a big influence in his administration if she does that. If it looks like another 1972, she'll probably want to stay in the favor of the party establishment that is eager to take back over after November.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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Response to democrattotheend (Reply #26)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 06:37 PM

31. Yes

 

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to totodeinhere (Reply #15)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:47 PM

20. The primary system is designed to produce a two way race

 

I think after next Tuesday we'll know who those two are. Almost certainly Joe & Bernie. And Biden is probably the one candidate Sanders can beat one on one.

But you're right, it'll be resolved before the first ballot. I'll be surprised if it's not all resolved by the end of May
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 05:41 PM

17. Normally I would agree with you but this year feels different.

 

Bloomberg is the wildcard. It all depends how much support he pulls from Biden and how hard he hits Sanders with his ads.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

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Response to Dem4Life1102 (Original post)

Thu Feb 27, 2020, 06:06 PM

27. No doubt. Winning votes and primaries today is the importing thing.

 

Bernie and his supporters can control that part so that's where the focus should be.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

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