This is still Sanders' race to lose

[stopbush]

Yes, Biden won big tonight, but his prospects for Tuesday are not great. Sanders has the ground game and the money to win decisively on Tuesday. He has huge leads in the polls.

A Sanders’ landslide will mean Amy and Pete getting out.

If Joe doesn’t hit 15% in CA, well, it may not be over, but it may be over.

[msongs]

1. our revolution candidates have a lousy track record so far nt

[stopbush]

5. Sanders is my second to last choice after Gabbard.

But the handwriting is on the wall.

Let the hand wringing commence.

[Cha]

30. No.. there's no "handwriting".

[AGeddy]

2. Actually, 538 currently has Biden winning 7 of the 14 Super Tuesday states

And picking up 400+ delegates to Bernie's 600 or so.

[TwilightZone]

7. I'm not seeing that.

Has their forecast been updated? This one from the 26th only shows Biden potentially winning Alabama.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-our-forecast-says-about-every-super-tuesday-state/

[Quixote1818]

10. I think Biden has pulled about even in NC in the last couple of days

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/north-carolina/

As Bloomberg and Pete have dropped a bit.

[AGeddy]

11. Their current model shows Biden winning AL, NC, TN, VA, AR, TX, and OK

And Bernie winning CA, CO, ME, MA, UT, and VT


And Amy winning MN.

[Quixote1818]

15. Do you have a link? I am not seeing that either.

Just looked all over their website.

[TwilightZone]

21. Here you go.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[AGeddy]

29. Here

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo


CA:
Bernie 227
Joe 90
Others 98

TX:
Joe 81
Bernie 81
Others 66

NC:
Joe 46
Bernie 33
Others 31

VA:
Joe 35
Bernie 34
Others 30

MA:
Bernie 36
Joe 14
Others 41

MN:
Bernie 27
Joe 7
Others 41

CO:
Bernie 32
Joe 11
Others 24

TN:
Joe 24
Bernie 18
Others 22

AL:
Joe 25
Bernie 11
Others 16

OK:
Joe 12
Bernie 10
Others 15

AR:
Joe 9
Bernie 9
Others 13

UT:
Bernie 15
Joe 1
Others 13

ME:
Bernie 10
Joe 4
Others 10

VT:
Bernie 13
Joe 0
Others 3

AS:
Bernie 2
Joe 2
Others 2



Bernie=558
Joe=361
Others=425

And that "Others" total is going to go way down now and be spread to Joe and Bernie.

[Quixote1818]

36. I wonder what method they are using. Polling in Texas for example all have Sanders ahead

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-6875.html

And betting sites also have Sanders winning in Texas: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5938

[AGeddy]

38. A couple A-rated pollsters have it tied in TX - and 538 assigns a post-SC "bump"

[TwilightZone]

39. 538 has him trending up the past few days, so that might be part of it.

Momentum is a factor in their predictions. The current one is frozen pending SC updates, so it hasn't factored that into the prediction yet, but has him slightly more likely to win it than Sanders.

They've also said that predicted dropouts can influence the projections. If the model predicted that Steyer would drop out in some scenarios (as he has), that helps Biden.

[TwilightZone]

16. Thanks, I hadn't looked at the individual states since that summary.

Amazing what happens in three days, and they don't even reflect tonight yet.

[squirecam]

22. I think it was the 15-20 pt SC polls that made it switch

Nt

[TwilightZone]

24. That would make sense.

Nate's been talking about the influence of momentum, etc., in the model.

Though, he also says national polls play a role, and Sanders is still way up there.

I have no idea. lol

[Quixote1818]

3. 538 Has Sanders ahead in every Super Tuesday state except Alabama, NC and Tenn.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-what-our-forecast-says-about-every-super-tuesday-state/

And we saw how Joe under performed in Iowa, NH and NV. I think SC will help Joe a bit though.

[AGeddy]

14. That's out of date. They currently have Biden ahead in VA, AR, OK, and tied with Bernie in TX.

[TwilightZone]

17. Actually, they don't anymore.

If you look at the updated predictions state-by-state, Biden is now up in 6, Bernie is up in 6, and Amy is ahead in MN and TX is basically a wash.

I've been going by the same link you have, but the state polls have been updated separately since then.

[TomSlick]

20. The chart at that site is confusing. The text seems to contradict the chart.

Based on nothing more than having been raised here and spending most of my life here, I'll bet you a solid quarter Sanders doesn't win Arkansas. I'm expecting the first two to be Biden and Bloomberg.

[TwilightZone]

23. Looks like they've updated the states individually, but not that chart.

Here's a link with that latest:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

[TomSlick]

35. Seems they agree with me.

They are showing Bloomberg slightly ahead of Biden.

That being said. Polling in Arkansas has been problematic since Jim Ranchino died.

[TwilightZone]

4. Lots of early voting in CA.

Any momentum swing is going to be blunted a bit by that, because a lot of people have already voted in CA.

If there hadn't been early voting in CA, it might have been a very different conversation.

[stopbush]

6. Three-million votes already cast in CA.

[StevieM]

12. Where are we getting that 3 million figure from?

Is that an estimate, or an approximate?

[stopbush]

43. Kornacki.

[frazzled]

8. MSNBC just announced that Biden has surpassed Sanders

in popular votes in the primaries. Yes, more people have thus far voted for Biden than Sanders.

Too bad so many in California have voted early, because it could have looked very different after tonight.

[ucrdem]

9. on the other hand

to vote early in CA requires that you've voted at least once and thus received an early voter guide with early voting instructions. Possibly it's changed but that's how it was for years meaning early voting favors established (older) voters and excludes first time voters.

So I'm not sure early voters here will break for Sanders.

[tarheelsunc]

13. I really doubt his ability to crack 50% of pledged delegates.

If, as expected, some of the candidates drop out after Super Tuesday, I expect Biden to draw the vast majority of their support. I really don't see Sanders gaining much except for some of Warren's supporters. A Biden win on the second convention vote is looking like the most likely outcome.

[blm]

40. Which is why Biden needs Pete and Amy out and

Warren in past Tuesday.

She is the only one who keeps Sanders numbers from rising.

[tandem5]

18. With Steyer out Sanders might lose 15% viability in the southern states.

The point is -- things are changing.

[jimfields33]

32. You seem to forget Bloomberg

[tandem5]

34. nope

[blm]

41. Warren pushed Joe to Bloomberg voters back to Joe.

That was a mission accomplished in less than 2 weeks.

[TwilightZone]

42. Bloomberg is still at 16.4% average.

Nationally, he hasn't dropped much. The momentum was halted, more than anything. He could drop more, of course, as more polls measure the impact.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

[StevieM]

19. 4.7 million people voted in the 2008 California primary. 5.1 million people voted in 2016.

Let's say that the figure is 5 million voters in 2020. And let's say that 2.5 million have voted as of tonight.

That means that 50 percent of the vote is still to come.

If Biden has 14 percent in the first half of the vote, and 24 percent in the second half, which comes after tonight's bump, then that gives him 19 percent. In other words, he crosses the 15 percent threshold to accumulate delegates.

I don't expect Biden to get shut out in California.

[squirecam]

25. Biden needs 15% in CA.

That’s a difference of 100 delegates.

[TwilightZone]

28. He's at 18% average on 538.

One would think that he wouldn't drop after tonight, especially if a lot of the vote is already in.

Going to be an interesting week.

[squirecam]

31. Hmmm

Biden is at 11% at RCP.

[TwilightZone]

37. RCP is only averaging three polls, the three latest.

538 says it's frozen pending SC results, so it's not factoring in momentum from tonight yet. A couple of the polls show Biden gaining in CA, so maybe they're figuring a trend.

Monmouth is high-rated on 538 and has him at 17%, but that's left out of the RCP average because it was a week prior.

[Moderateguy]

26. No candidate is going to get shut out of CA

There are two tiers of delegates awarded:

Congressional District level (271): Candidate needs to be viable (15%) in only that district to get delegates

Statewide (144): Candidate needs to be viable statewide (15%)

It is highly unlikely that only Sanders and Warren are the only viable candidates in all 53 Congressional Districts

[squirecam]

33. Right

But the statewide % is just as important.

[uponit7771]

27. We'll see if the other polls were off