538: What Biden's Big South Carolina Win Might Mean

[honest.abe]

Interesting analysis by Nate Silver.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-bidens-big-south-carolina-win-might-mean-for-sanders/

I think its a combination of hypothesis 4 and 5... which would be very good for Biden and bad for Sanders.

[Yavin4]

1. I have a different hypothesis

The past week was Sanders' first week as the clear front runner, and he failed to solidify his lead. In fact, he was rejected soundly in SC.

[genxlib]

3. Didn't see your post

But I had a similar take below

[honest.abe]

4. I think Sanders has a ceiling in many states such a SC.

If the anti-Sanders voters can pick one candidate, Sanders is toast.

[genxlib]

2. Interesting

Although I think the analysis is a little off.

The strength of Bidens come back is yet to be determined. I think the bigger question is the severity of Sanders fall back.

The last 2 weeks had several incidents of what a Sanders campaign in the primary might look like. For one, casting himself as a lone figure fighting both parties really gives a lot of people pause. Second, the Cuba thing was a snapshot into the kind of scrutiny he gets when he is a front runner. And his answer is a reminder that he can be prideful, tone deaf and stubborn when it comes to responding to those old issues.

Just maybe the Democratic electorate is tapping the brakes and asking themselves if they really want to go through that.

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Joe Biden is telling us he can revive the America that Trump stole

Biden has some of the best political tacticians in the business. They have held their message until the money is on the table, and they're making it count by demonstrating their policy and resolve without telling you explicitly because successful messaging is messaging and not strategy.

The Biden campaign is driving right down the political middle. Everyone is on the fringe but angry, fearful, and unhappy. The middle is now a fresh new thing! He's not angry, he's motivated. He has political capital only gathered by experience at his level, and he is leveraging that mother lode. Do you want an angry old socialist, or someone who's been there and can get things done? That's what voters want in politics. A good mind, hard work on the country's problems, resolve to uplift all in the boat.

This is liftoff. This is exactly what Trump fears. By trying to sandbag Joe Biden, Trump has given the Biden campaign plausible immunity. Trump's attacks will appear very very transparent.

The Democratic Party has lit the torch. Joe Biden is telling us he can revive the America that Trump stole

[unc70]

6. I too think it's a combo of hypotheses 4 and 5

I have never seen so many of my friends and acquaintances openly discussing their decision making processes. Almost everyone of them is making a tactical decision at the last minute, waiting for some kind of signal. This is mostly people over 60 but with a good sample down to about 30. Mostly NC, SC, and TN. All levels of political involvement from former holders of high office to total novices. Almost all are white.

Not one of this cohort is supporting Sanders, even those who voted for him 2016. A Mayor Pete, a Mayor Mike or two, most of the rest likely breaking for Joe at the last possible moment.