This morning, my wife took the Mike Bloomberg yard sign

[MineralMan]

out of our living room picture window and put it in the basement. She is switching to Joe Biden for her Super Tuesday vote. I never switched from Biden. I had zero input into her decision, since I don't presume to tell my wife how she should vote.

Based on her decision, I believe that Mike Bloomberg will withdraw from the primary race on March 4 or March 5, and announce his support for Joe Biden. I predict that he will continue to advertise against Donald Trump, even if he doesn't advertise directly for Joe Biden.

My wife, aside from being a wonderful person, is something of a bellwether for elections.

[PatSeg]

1. "Bellwether"?

That was my first reaction when I started to read you post! It feels like a lot of people switched to Joe after last night.

[Bucky]

92. It's a kind of leading goat

it's a Scottish term meaning the "bell wearer"

Mineral Man for certain meant that metaphorically.

[rzemanfl]

2. I started with Joe, switched to Pete, then Bloomberg briefly, then back to Pete,

now back to Joe. Paranoia about winning being everything and Bernie being a disaster caused all my wavering. I will mail my ballot for Joe tomorrow.

[samnsara]

9. i have my ballot to mail in as well but I am going to wait until after SuperTuesday....

..im sticking with joe til the end but IF he himself decides to pull out because of some unforeseen reason i will vote for the one who will will NOT be bs.

[DownriverDem]

20. Michigan

votes on 3/10. I have always supported Biden and will vote for him on 3/10.

[JGug1]

90. Switching

This campaign has been interesting and will be more interesting. I supported Pete early, did not like Biden's chances or who he has been. I considered Harris early, then Elizabeth. I thought a little about Bloomberg. I flirted with jumping on Bernie's train when he seemed to be headed for a lock on the nomination. Now, I'm all in on Joe Biden.

[rzemanfl]

91. Nice that you settled on Joe. Now I have to see if the socks I hung

up dried overnight.

[TwilightZone]

3. I also think BB will probably withdraw and support Biden.

I'm still convinced that his primary goal is defeating Trump, and I think he's convinced that Sanders can't do that. I think he was waiting (as were many) to see if Biden could be a legitimate alternative to Sanders and the SC result combined with what seems to be some upward poll trends in ST states may lead him to go all in on Biden.

Just a guess, but I don't really agree with those who think this is just an ego thing. His dislike of Trump is personal and visceral and I think he'll do whatever it takes to get rid of him. I could certainly be wrong.

[Blue_true]

22. Joe showed some fire in the debate and in campaigning in SC,

people were waiting to see him do that.

[yardwork]

42. Bloomberg is a data guy. He's seriously worried about climate change.

People who make billions of dollars from analyzing data recognize climate change as an existential threat. I don't know if it's all about profit or if they really care about human survival, but either way, they're on the right side of this.

Bloomberg will work to defeat Trump.

[samnsara]

4. my grand dtr pre registered for her first vote in Nov shes all bernie bernie bernie..

....typical political novice..gets her info from soc media..i dont dare dispute her choice cuz its her choice!!! but shes gotta realize she cant write in bernie if he doesnt win. As little as that family pays attn to world, national or local news im sure her decision wasnt based on research.

[xmas74]

18. My 19 year old can't stand him.

She likes Warren but is voting for who she feels will beat Trump. She thinks Sanders will lose in a landslide.

[leftieNanner]

31. My 28 yo daughter can't stand Bernie either

She's very up on things. She even went to DC during grad school to lobby Congress.

[xmas74]

57. Mine is studying public relations

With an emphasis in political media and wants to work on campaigns with people who are underrepresented in our current system.

[Peacetrain]

5. Alrighty now!!!!!

WTG Mrs. MM

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. I haven't seen many lawn signs for anybody.

There's a Warren lawn sign in front of a house around the corner, and a couple of blocks from here there's one that says "Any Functioning Adult - 2020" which I like a lot. That's about it.

[MineralMan]

10. Ground's still frozen.

I tried, but I couldn't get the sign's wires to go into the lawn.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

12. Until last week there was more than enough snow to stick them in.

Now they'd be falling over.

[Blue_true]

25. There is such a thing as an ice pick, they are not as common as they

were, but they are still around.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

41. I have one. I don't pick a lot of ice with it, but it's useful

for poking holes in other things if necessary.

[efhmc]

43. You do know that at least half of the US has never even seen frozen ground, right.

[Progressive dog]

75. Two Trump flags flying form poles

within a mile of me. One has been flying since sometime in 2016, the other started when new owners purchased a house near me. The previous owner flew a confederate flag for years on that pole.
Not one yard sign for a Democrat to be seen. I'm sure that our representative will have a very tough time winning again in an R+2 district if Bernie is the Democratic nominee.

[redstateblues]

78. I've seen "Any Functioning Adult - 2020"

[11 Bravo]

96. If you make it to my neighborhood, you'll see it in my front yard!

[MineralMan]

7. So, I told my wife about this thread.

She said, "Where did the word "bellwether" come from?" I explained. After I did, she laughed and said, "I'm not sure, but maybe that's insulting."

Did You Know?
We usually think of sheep more as followers than leaders, but in a flock one sheep must lead the way. Long ago, it was common practice for shepherds to hang a bell around the neck of one sheep in their flock, thereby designating it the lead sheep. This animal was called the bellwether, a word formed by a combination of the Middle English words belle (meaning "bell&quot and wether (a noun that refers to a male sheep that has been castrated). It eventually followed that bellwether would come to refer to someone who takes initiative or who actively establishes a trend that is taken up by others. This usage first appeared in English in the 13th century.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bellwether

[iluvtennis]

26. MineralMan, thanks for the further elavboration on 'bellwether' My learning for today.

[MineralMan]

27. I'm a word lover.

Always have been.

[LiberalFighter]

61. So the other sheep follow the lead and also got castrated?

[MineralMan]

71. No, probably they just got shorn.

[emmaverybo]

76. Thanks MM and thank your wife for being one.

[onetexan]

8. Your lips to God's ears

Please thanks the missus for us Biden supporters. Go Joe!

[bucolic_frolic]

11. Bloomberg will do whatever it takes to defeat Trump

He wants a strong Democratic candidate. We may not all agree with his record and foibles, but I do think him a true patriot.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

14. I'm guessing there's something personal about Bloomberg vs. Trump.

Even though he's richer than God and can easily spare the money, nobody drops that kind of coin on anything unless they really want results. Maybe Bloomberg is doing it for his country but I bet he's got his own reasons, too.

[bucolic_frolic]

16. Yup. Lots of skeletons in NYC

Bloomberg made his wealth by servicing Wall Street, the honest legal SEC regulated side.

Trump has several BFFs from Wall Street - Mnuchin, Icahn, Wilbur Ross, Kudlow. These are the laissez-faire unregulated side, cutthroat capitalists who will plunder anything for profit.

We may never know if there is a line of demarcation there.

[brush]

40. Agreed. He knows all the NYC dirt on dispicable donald and, IMO, feels...

our country deserves better.

[FailureToCommunicate]

13. I imagine the scene where you slip YOUR Biden sign over her's each day and

she slips her's back in front each night.

Glad your very own Bellweather has caught the fresh winds blowing from the Biden camp.

[MineralMan]

15. Yeah, but I don't have a Biden sign.

There aren't any available at the non-existent Biden headquarters here in the Twin Cities.

[FailureToCommunicate]

17. Okay. Well, how about dragging the Bloomie sign out of the basement and

painting "Biden" on it ?

[Sloumeau]

21. MineralMan, thanks for posting this! :)

This is good news for Joe Biden!

[Dios Mio]

23. Bloomberg.

With the money he wasted he could have fed a lot of hungry people.

[Wounded Bear]

24. Bloomberg is probably helping Bernie more than himself...nt

[McCamy Taylor]

28. Biden now officially has Teflon. You have to have Teflon to survive in presidential politics.

That's is why I can now support him. What on Earth are Trump , Putin and Guiliani going to do to him that would be worse than the Ukraine Treason? It is like Biden has survived his own personal Watergate.

[Sogo]

35. I agree about Ukraine.

If they pull anything out of (left to your imagination), at this point, everyone will know it for what it is and just laugh.

[oldsoftie]

37. Oh, they're still gathering ALL that information! Its been "just you wait" for months!

Which means they've got jack shit

[oasis]

29. Bravo!

[randr]

30. First we vote with our heart

And then we vote with our head.

[JenniferJuniper]

32. I'm not a Biden fan,

however, I will be voting for him on Tuesday.

[MineralMan]

33. Thanks. Choosing a President often involves pragmatism.

Maybe always. That's especially true when Trump is the competition, I think.

Now, is it true that you live upon the hill?

[McKim]

34. So We Are Kissing Universal Health Care and Accessible University Goodbye?

So with this momentum and the enthusiastic support of big money and big media, we have to kiss universal health care and accessible university education goodbye? So I just have to be patient and wait another 50 years for the changes I want for America? Is it time to immigrate or is Joe Biden going to get my issues into his platform? No more wars in the Middle East? What’s it gonna be, Joe?

[MineralMan]

36. Not at all.

You wouldn't get either from Bernie Sanders. What you will get from Biden is progress in both directions. With Bernie, you would get nothing at all, since his plans could not get through Congress. And, since Bernie could not unseat Donald Trump, you'd get even less than you have now with Trump remaining in office.

[oldsoftie]

39. What we're all trying to kiss goodbye is TRUMP. As nasty as that sounds......

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

46. No. We weren't going to get Medicare for All from Sanders or Warren either

because it wouldn't ever get through Congress, at least as Congress currently exists. Anyhow, universal health care isn't synonymous with M4A. It simply means a system in which everyone is covered and has access to affordable health care. All Democratic candidates are on record as in favor of universal coverage. The only question is how best to do it.

[grantcart]

50. MFA is not the same as Universal Health Coverage

Universal 2 years of CC is doable

Sanders proposals exceed $ 55 Trillion and, in Sanders own words, a middle class tax increase.

Mondale and McGovern both advocated for middle class tax increases and each one won exactly one state.

The populism you appear to embrace over promises, under delivers and where it has won left governments with staggering debt.

If you want to increase health coverage and make college more accessible then you should be supporting Obama style candidates who have practical plans for big changes and not utopian plans that will never get elected, never get passed.

[McKim]

68. I have to ask

I have to ask, why is there always money for war, but public goods, not so much!

[hangaleft]

86. Get ready to tread water for four years

Kiss progress goodbye.

But at least our democracy will survive.

That’s a lot. But, it’s not enough. I’m greedy. I want to see real improvement in our country for all of us.

Liz represents the best of both worlds. Beating Trump like a drum and moving the country forward.

Too bad the lemmings started lining up after one win by a rather soft candidate. I’ll vote for him him if he’s our candidate, but it will more a vote against Trump than a vote for Biden.

[yardwork]

38. That's good to hear.

[peggysue2]

44. Your OP made me smile

Amazing what a blowout win can do, a win that happens at the exact right moment. Like you, I never withdrew my support for Biden. I was a very happy camper last night. Celebrated with pizza and wine.

That being said, even I'm startled at the enormous shift in support towards Biden.

This primary is moving at lightening speed. Enough to make my head spin. But in a good way.

[MineralMan]

45. I'm very glad it did!

[totodeinhere]

54. I don't know where you are seeing an "enormous shift" to Biden.

Have there been any polls released that reflect any reaction to last night's result? I think it's too soon for that. That latest RCP average has Bernie up double digits over Joe nationally. And Bernie leads Joe by 17 points in California and 9 points in Texas. And remember that with early voting many voters have already voted and won't have been influenced by last night's results.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Doitnow]

84. And, it was a record haul Of $25,000 in Jan. Bernie received. And, for Feb., it was

$46,000.—-haven’t heard much of that news on MM. You can bet all those many small donors will also be voting for Bernie.

Just keep watching, y’all. It’s just amazing what you learn on NON-MM these days. All the really good talking heads were kicked off the MM for telling the truth about what goes on, is where they are. They are listened to by the youth and that is why they follow Bernie.

As luck would have it, I started learning the internet 15 years ago and encouraged my peers to do the same. Not many did. March 3 will be my 85th birthday and I consider it a good omen. I have a Bernie sign in my yard and so does my neighbor.

Go, Bernie!

[Lucid Dreamer]

85. Doitnow, let me be the first to wish you Happy Birthday! nt

[Doitnow]

93. Thank you ever so much. I just had to put my 2 cents in. There are more than a few of us

Out here In the older generation supporting Bernie Sanders. Believe it.-

[JustAnotherGen]

88. If Biden is successful on Tuesday

It will be a step in the right direction towards getting money out of politics.

If the platform works for people - the platform wins, not the candidates election account.

[totodeinhere]

89. I am also an older Bernie supporter.

Age 73. His support spans generations, but I am especially glad to see younger people supporting him since they are our future. Happy birthday!

[musicman65]

47. We started

with Joe before He even started and will continue till He sits in the Big Chair

[totodeinhere]

48. Well Mike said that he will be in it to the bitter end but that might just be campaign talk.

I'm not sure. But I think he will be under quite a lot of pressure to drop out and endorse Joe. And Joe could certainly use his financial help.

[MineralMan]

51. Well, he wasn't necessarily talking about being a candidate until then.

He has pledged to fight Trump, and I'm sure he will. I cannot see him endorsing Sanders, however, so that leaves just one candidate for him to get behind when he stops campaigning for himself.

I've been watching his ads here in the Twin Cities for a couple of months now. All could be easily converted to pure, anti-Trump ads or to support Biden. They're designed with those options in mind.

It's interesting.

[wishstar]

49. Here in NC, many of us waited to early vote until Bloomberg's first debate

Moderates I know have been split between Biden and Bloomberg and influenced with the onslaught of Bloomberg ads but waiting to see if it looked like Biden was strong in SC and to find out about Bloomberg's weaknesses such as supporting Bush and Lindsay Graham and Scott Brown for Senate. Early voting picked up greatly beginning Thursday through yesterday but with probably half of NC voters who waited to see how Biden did in SC before voting Tuesday.

[MineralMan]

52. Interesting.

[cwydro]

53. A good friend of mine who gave up on Joe a few weeks ago is now back on board with him.

I voted early yesterday, for neither Biden nor Sanders.

Shocked to see Booker, Yang, and some others were still on the ballot.

[Sancho]

55. We had the opposite reaction...

the TV market is so big in Florida, that only Bloomberg can win here. Otherwise it will be another "close" win for the repubs...nothing to do with policy or personality. It's simply who can pay to reach the unaware voters.

[HarlanPepper]

56. Florida's problem isn't media cost

It’s the rising number of wingnuts. Bloomberg’s money, which will be there anyway if Biden wants it, isn’t going to change that. Your rationale seems a little overthought to be honest.

[Sancho]

63. We've seen almost 3 decades of politics in Florida...

...and right now, the majority of eligible voters are "no party" or don't vote, so I don't think a rising number of conservatives is an issue.

Only a lot of dollars can penetrate the Florida market. There are more Democratic registrations than republicans, but the independents and unregistered are the largest group.

The repubs here swamp the markets for most elections - including local ones. Lots of republican money. TV, mailings, yard signs, phone calls. No one except Bloomberg has even come close in recent years.

We have not seen a single Biden ad. If Bloomberg wants to give Biden a few hundred million that would be ok, but Bloomberg could have done that instead of running, so he appears to have already decided.

[hbhall]

58. Me too

The Bloomberg choice was purely strategic... I want the Gibbon out and he has the money . My Bloomberg sign comes out of the Yard today and its Biden all the way.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

59. Think my husband is sticking with Bloomberg. He's

a socially liberal fiscally conservative person. But think he could live with Biden. Just not BS or EW.

[ooky]

60. My hope is

that most moderate primary voters were like myself, perhaps your wife - waiting for South Carolina results - before doing anything (early voting), and that some of those polling numbers for Bloomberg and other moderate candidates will swing back to Biden on Tuesday.

Also, there is a segment of voters that might have Bernie as their first choice and Biden as their second choice that will now swing to Biden on Tuesday. (Had Biden flopped in SC I was going to vote for Bernie on Tuesday.)

Normally I vote early, this time I waited to see South Carolina. How many more did that? I think those moderate voters could very well be Biden votes now, like your wife. Voters who perhaps knew Joe had the best chance of beating Trump but needed more confidence that Joe would stay through the convention.

It is so important that we get this right I didn't want to rush things by early voting with Super Tuesday so close.

[Kaleva]

62. Sticking with Bloomberg unless he withdraws, then I'll go to Biden.

[Moderateguy]

74. Same here..

But I think it’s more of a case of when than if- unless Biden seriously falters on ST

[Kaleva]

79. Bloomberg is the backup to Biden for many.

[customerserviceguy]

81. Six of the Super Tuesday states

have demographics in the Democratic base that are very much like South Carolina. Biden should win all of them handily. Joe might just pick up some Buttigieg support from California, Maine, and Massachusetts.

[Pachamama]

64. I agree with Mineralwoman's insight

I sense the same and two friends who like me a few weeks ago were even on the fence about whether Joe could do this and were waiting for the results of SC, all now are 100% Biden and our previously all the way-in for Bloomberg friends got lukewarm after his debate performances. One Bloomberg supporter, a black woman physician friend, previously Biden but still sticking with Bloomberg, thinks he is going to change minds with his 60 Minutes interview tonight.

We shall see...but I’m with your wife on this one. I also think in the next 36 hours there will be some major announcements of support for Biden that will increase his numbers.

[disndat]

65. A very good sign

Maybe a flood of people will do the same thing in the next 24 hours.

[gordianot]

66. I took the Biden plunge.

This living nightmare has to end in the executive branch and the Senate.

[vlyons]

67. I'm switching to Biden also

for my Tuesday vote in Texas

[robbedvoter]

69. I can relate. Until SC, I considered the possibility of voting Bloomberg

which would be weird, as 3 times I proudly didn't as Mayor. Now I can see Biden always had a path. Pretty sure he'll have my vote in April.I feel we are being manipulated by the media with bad polls and lots of propaganda for the Putin candidate.

[DarthDem]

87. There is unquestionably media manipulation

Favoring Sen. Sanders. It may rapidly erode now, as it was never very solid.

[PatrickforO]

70. Fascinating. I've never cared much for Bloomberg.

Bernie takes a lot of flack for not being a Dem, but Bloomberg seems to have blatantly changed from the Republican party just for access to the ballot. But then, if you give Bernie a 'pass' for that, then you have to give Bloomberg one.

Honestly, though as I've said, I will vote blue no matter who, I never really felt comfortable with Bloomberg. The idea of a 'good' billionaire taking on an 'evil' one, you know. It just seems wrong on so many levels.

I do hope, though, that Bloomberg does this nation a service and continues his anti-Trump ads. It will be a great thing if he does.

[wryter2000]

72. From your lips

to God's ears.

[Chemisse]

73. I hope you are right about Bloomberg.

That would really propell Biden toward a win.

[LaurenOlimina]

77. Thank god!

[customerserviceguy]

80. Bloomie's not going to spend good money after bad

If he leaves the race, he'll spend a few million here and there on his causes and those who suck up to him in connection with those causes (including Republicons), but he's not going to shovel a billion or two to help Joe Biden.

I see him using a third place position to stay in the race, and offer himself as a compromise candidate should neither Biden nor Sanders has enough for a first ballot victory. He'll bribe the superdelegates with offers to help their campaigns with a multi-billion dollar super-PAC.

[MineralMan]

82. I don't know the man personally, so I can't make a statement like that.

Perhaps you do know him.

[customerserviceguy]

83. Only what I've seen

from living in the NYC media market from 2007 to just a couple of years ago. He used his money to get whatever he wanted during his terms as mayor.

And wealthy people didn't get that way without thrift (among other things). They know when to cut their losses. Tom Steyer did just that.

[corbettkroehler]

94. Bloomberg Is Counting On A Brokered Convention (His Own Words)

Link to tweet

[ehrnst]

95. Maybe you need to find other sources for your predictions...