Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
New CA poll post SC: Biden gets 7 point bump
Bernie Sanders still has a large lead in the California primary, but after the South Carolina primary it has shrunk significantly due to a 7-point bump for Joe Biden since Point Blank Politicals last survey. Sanders 33.9-percent vote-share is largely unchanged since PBPs pre-South Carolina poll, but Bidens support has increased from 14 percent to 21.6 percent after his victory in South Carolina. This is the third California poll Point Blank Political has conducted in the last week; over the last week Joe Biden has seen a 10-point increase following the debates and South Carolina. All other candidates support was largely unchanged, except for Pete Buttigieg whos support dropped 3 percent in the waning hours of his now suspended campaign. The data was collected during the 24-hour period from the evening of February 29th, just as Biden declared victory in South Carolina, to the evening of March 1st, just as Buttigieg was suspending his campaign. The sample size was 1220 and the margin of error is 4.1 percent (95-percent confidence interval).
The results were weighted by gender, race, age, and education using a Random Iterative Model. The models weighting efficiency was 45 percent. The weighting efficiency was primarily driven downward by the raw sample being tilted towards those with a higher education, and slightly tilted towards white voters. RIM models correct for this by appropriately weighting groups that are under or overrepresented in the sample. Population estimates for the demographics were obtained through a combination of third-party provided voter-file data and exit polls.
The results were weighted by gender, race, age, and education using a Random Iterative Model. The models weighting efficiency was 45 percent. The weighting efficiency was primarily driven downward by the raw sample being tilted towards those with a higher education, and slightly tilted towards white voters. RIM models correct for this by appropriately weighting groups that are under or overrepresented in the sample. Population estimates for the demographics were obtained through a combination of third-party provided voter-file data and exit polls.
https://www.pointblankpolitical.com/2020-ca-dem-primary-post-sc/
This is good news for Biden but I suspect the vote tomorrow will be even better for him. If accurate this will be a huge blow to Sanders plan to accumulate a big lead over Biden after Super Tuesday. In fact I think ST is going to be a wash with neither candidate (Biden or Sanders) gaining much on the other.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
9 replies, 1243 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (14)
ReplyReply to this post
9 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
New CA poll post SC: Biden gets 7 point bump (Original Post)
honest.abe
Mar 2020
OP
empedocles
(15,751 posts)1. A small ST edge for Biden would be HUGE!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,678 posts)2. Indeed that would be a huge boost for his campaign and a killer for Sanders.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)3. . . . and more hope for the future
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
LAS14
(13,783 posts)4. And this doesn't take account of Buttigieg's withdrawal. nt
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,678 posts)6. Yep and we still have all day today for news of Biden's resurrection to filter down to more voters.
I also expect Bloomberg's numbers to fall into the low single digits with those voters moving to Biden.
Biden could have very good day in CA tomorrow as well as many other ST states.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,228 posts)5. Could it be
because folks are now realizing that we have to have a candidate that Center/Left voters will vote for in November? I don't understand why folks want someone who is risky.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)7. Well we shall see huh . . . .
Liberal, Progressive am I from California.
Mailed in ballot for VP Biden.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to honest.abe (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
MaryMagdaline
(6,853 posts)9. Great news!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden