Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(48,976 posts) Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:47 PM Mar 2020

New 538 forecast, post Morning Consult poll, has Sanders only 150 delegates ahead of

Biden.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Sanders is down to a 20% chance of having a majority of delegates at the convention.

Biden is up to 15%.

Delegate forecast is now Sanders 1599, Biden 1455.

This is per their 12:34 pm ET update.

And this is showing the results of only one (1) post-South Carolina poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

6 replies

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New 538 forecast, post Morning Consult poll, has Sanders only 150 delegates ahead of (Original Post) highplainsdem Mar 2020 OP

What would be really ironic is if Biden went to the convention with the most delegates OKNancy Mar 2020 #1

Oh, I think we know what they'd say. And they'd probably be demanding recounts everywhere. highplainsdem Mar 2020 #2

He boxed himself into a corner. drray23 Mar 2020 #5

Sanders with a 40% chance of not even getting a plurality. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #3

Better & Better Me. Mar 2020 #4

I actually think Joe has MontanaFarmer Mar 2020 #6

OKNancy

(41,832 posts)

1. What would be really ironic is if Biden went to the convention with the most delegates

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:49 PM

Mar 2020

but not a majority. What would Sanders say then... and his more vocal supporters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(48,976 posts)

2. Oh, I think we know what they'd say. And they'd probably be demanding recounts everywhere.

Reply to OKNancy (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:50 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

drray23

(7,627 posts)

5. He boxed himself into a corner.

Reply to OKNancy (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:56 PM

Mar 2020

Still. If Biden ends up with the plurality, I'm pretty sure Bernie will turn around and again ask for the superdelegates to put him first like he did in 2016.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)

3. Sanders with a 40% chance of not even getting a plurality.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:50 PM

Mar 2020

And rising.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Me.

(35,454 posts)

4. Better & Better

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 02:51 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

MontanaFarmer

(630 posts)

6. I actually think Joe has

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Mar 2, 2020, 03:05 PM

Mar 2020

a chance to overperform the polls in CA tomorrow and get a decent number of delegates out of it. I wouldn't be shocked if he enters the convention with the most pledged or even an outright majority.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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