Democratic Primaries

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,719 posts) Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:26 AM Mar 2020

538 probabilities for each state

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If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

6 replies

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538 probabilities for each state (Original Post) DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2020 OP

Who can beat trump? DownriverDem Mar 2020 #1

Amy must still have a chance in MN due to the early vote. squirecam Mar 2020 #2

looks like no one will have sufficient delegates going into the convention still_one Mar 2020 #3

Well... 2naSalit Mar 2020 #4

Klobo baked into MN Dem2 Mar 2020 #5

Well things have certainly flipped there Jarqui Mar 2020 #6

DownriverDem

(6,236 posts)

1. Who can beat trump?

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:29 AM

Mar 2020

Joe Bden

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

squirecam

(2,706 posts)

2. Amy must still have a chance in MN due to the early vote.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:29 AM

Mar 2020

She had a solid lead in a poll I saw when she dropped out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

still_one

(92,510 posts)

3. looks like no one will have sufficient delegates going into the convention

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:30 AM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

2naSalit

(86,943 posts)

4. Well...

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:30 AM

Mar 2020

I'm hoping that Biden sweeps it with Warren holding a string second.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Dem2

(8,168 posts)

5. Klobo baked into MN

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 11:30 AM

Mar 2020

Guessing her delegates will likely go to Biden at the convention?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Jarqui

(10,131 posts)

6. Well things have certainly flipped there

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 12:12 PM

Mar 2020

He now has Biden with 31% chance of winning outright, Sanders with 8% and everyone else less than 0.1%.

Biden's 1,738 projected delegates plus Buttigieg & Klobuchar delegates plus a significant hunk (79%) of the super delegates (which seems less % than what he's been getting in endorsements) would be enough to give him a majority of the delegates.

The tide seems to have turned very quickly and dramatically on this.

Having said that, like Nate's projection for 2016, it's just a projection. We have to count the votes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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