If Biden can't win Super Tuesday, He won't win the 2020 Nomination

[bluewater]

The reason?

Super Tuesday is heavy in states with a very large percentage of African American voters, Biden's core of support:

Alabama 28% of state residents are African Americans
North Carolina 24%
Virginia 21%
Tennessee 18%
Arkansas 17%
Texas 14%

Oklahoma, California and Minnesota also have significant African American populations:

Oklahoma 9%
California 8%
Minnesota 8%

https://blackdemographics.com/population/black-state-population/

That is 9 of the 15 jurisdictions holding primaries on Super Tuesday:

Fifteen jurisdictions are holding a primary event on Super Tuesday in 2020.

Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia

If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination.

It's that straight forward.

But I expect there will be spin from the Biden Campaign when he is behind in delegates on Super Tuesday. It's won't matter though in the long run.

[HeartlandProgressive]

1. Great analysis.

Thank you for posting this and pointing out the demographics.

[LexVegas]

2. Don't lose mad. nt

[zaj]

5. Don't be a jerk.

It divides the people which divides the party.

[zaj]

3. Momentum matters...

... your assessment leaves it out. You might turn out to be right, bit your thought process is incomplete.

And I'm hoping Warren wins the nomination.

[bluewater]

9. Time will Tell... and that time is Today!

I hope Warren does well and comes close to Bloomberg's totals today.

Good luck to you and your candidate.

[squirecam]

67. Today was very telling indeed

Nt

[NCjack]

48. Elizabeth Warren wins!

Spike Jones calls the race for Elizabeth "Beedlebaum" Warren:

[link:

|]

[beachbumbob]

4. "win"? Nope. Do very well? YES. consider the media did all they could to end his campaign BEFORE SC

we will see in 24 hours won't me how a campaign that was "done for" will end up doing for sure.

[2naSalit]

32. And they are still not

getting that he has far more appeal than they would like.

[beachbumbob]

42. never underestimate the comeback kid. Nor the democratic voter. Being insulted has its limits

We maybe the "establishment" but we vote , we have money and we do not vilify success. We have built on success and we want people to have opportunity for success themselves. We need to rid ourselves of trump and the ugliness the GOP has morphed into.

[MineralMan]

7. I don't think it is anything like that simple, actually.

The field changed yesterday. That might not be fully reflected in the Super Tuesday results. It is likely to change again tomorrow and Thursday.

After Super Tuesday, only 1/3 of the delegates will have been chosen, although we won't see accurate total for a while. That means that 2/3 of the delegates remain to be selected.

I think your prediction is premature, actually.

[Poeraria]

8. Nonsense.

Before SC, Biden was out of money, and not able to organize and put operations on the ground in these states. Since SC, he is gaining cash, endorsements, and the party is gathering around him. He will do OK today, but in future races, he will dominate with new money and momentum.

[bearsfootball516]

16. I'll be interested to see what his March cash haul ends up being.

I wouldn't be surprised if he's raked in tens of millions just since Saturday night.

[onetexan]

51. +1 K&R

[Eyeball_Kid]

10. Neither major candidate will have the 1909 to take the nomination on the first vote.

We'll have a brokered convention, which isn't bad. It's what the convention is really for.

If Sanders comes up short, he can't legitimately claim the nomination because he has a plurality. That's not how it works. And he WON'T try to bulldoze his way. That would be a divisive tactic that the Dems don't need, and everyone already knows it.

[still_one]

25. Exactly

[Demsrule86]

41. Keep in mind that Obama didn't have the magic number either...he was pushed over the top by

supers.

[karynnj]

58. The number needed was defined differently in 2008 - you needed 50% plus one of the TOTAL delegates

Now on the first ballot, you need 50% plus one of the pledged delegates.

In 2008, it was because Obama got more than 50% of the pledged delegates that a huge number of super delegates, led by Pelosi went to him - They had pledged to go to the candidate with the majority of pledged delegates. In 2008, only 2 candidates got any delegates - so someone had to get 50% plus one.

I suspect that there will be a first ballot winner. I think it entirely likely if as expected Bernie Sanders and one of the moderates end up as one and two, the other moderate candidates will release their delegates to vote for their choice. This will probably end up with Bernie or the moderate winning on the first ballot. No superdelegate involvement.

[SidDithers]

44. 1990..

Not 1909.



Sid

[beachbumbob]

46. its not unusual for some to take their ball home and not play.

bernie could have done much more to help Hillary out in 2016 knowing the threat of trump whitehouse. We saw what many sanders supporters did to make that happen

[brush]

49. It takes 1991.

[honest.abe]

11. No worries. He will.

[rzemanfl]

12. It's about delegates, not the number of states. Joe may be behind tomorrow

but not insurmountably. I always read profiles.

[Mike 03]

52. "I always read profiles."

rzemanfl, don't you wish there was a smiley that conveyed: "I'm not the fool you think I am"?

[rzemanfl]

56. Yes, I do and I wish there was a sockwashing emoticon too. Or Lambchop for that matter.

[brooklynite]

13. On this basis, why is Warren staying in?

[bluewater]

19. To be a counter weight to Bloomberg in the debates, and as an insurance policy for progressives

She is the youngest major candidate left in the field, any of the older men could have health issues which could totally change the race.

[jimfields33]

28. Holy cow

After reading your post, it hit me that every candidate is over 70. That’s amazing. Not good or bad. Kinda stunning.

[Demsrule86]

38. She doesn't have enough people who will vote for her...I doubt she will be viable in many states...

and may well lose her home state. I like Warren but she isn't going to win nor will she be the unity candidate...not enough support.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. Exactly. Why would someone who supports someone

who dissed Biden yesterday and has virtually no chance say someone super close to taking lead can't ultimately win unless they decisively win everywhere today?

[squirecam]

57. The answer to that question is obvious.

Nt

[Under The Radar]

14. Assuming he gets none of the white vote?

[evertonfc]

15. as long as Bernie dosent get 1991

Bernie will be the nominee. Bernie and his supporters will get over it.

[jimfields33]

30. Interesting post.

Glad your so confident in bernie getting the nomination. That’s awesome. Thank you for your day of hope.

[Codeine]

43. Proofread that. nt

[nolabear]

17. You underestimate us old white folks.

We do vote, you know. In droves. We also count. We know Liz, fine a woman as she is, is gone. Those over 40 are not going to Bernie or Bloomberg, also doomed even if rich and loud.

Together with our African American and, I hope, some other minority voters we can beat Bernie, who seems to have forgotten we exist. We might not cheer at his rallies but we vote in DROVES.

[Demsrule86]

34. +1000000

[Walleye]

45. Boomers. Still tens of millions of us. And we do vote.

[nolabear]

47. Boom!

[TwilightZone]

18. You know he's forecast to win most of those, right?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Winning Super Tuesday and winning the states with high AA percentages are two different things. Why you would conflate them is a little odd, though not surprising.

[AGeddy]

20. All Biden has to do is be within 100 delegates of Bernie after today, and Biden will win the nom.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

21. Sorry, but that is not true

Even if Biden closes the gap from prior polling, it will helps him play catch up in key large states favoring Biden over Sanders.

Biden does need to win some states, and he is very likely to do so.

[Sloumeau]

22. The main reason that Bernie Sanders got a plurality of votes was...

that the Moderates were fragmented. The race is now two progressives against two Moderates. In addition, Bloomberg will be getting votes in addition to Biden, and Bloomberg is a heck of a lot more likely to advocate that his delegates go to Biden than to high taxes on the rich loving Sanders or Warren.

Amy's backing Biden. Pete's Backing Biden. You now have Pete's strength with White voters combined with Biden's strength with Black Voters. It is not just Team Biden going forward. It is the entire Moderate wing of the Democratic Party going forward--the wing that has won every Democratic Primary since 1972. Finally, if you get what you apparently wish for, and the Left Wing wins for the first time since 1972, it will be 1972 all over again.

[frazzled]

23. What do you mean by "win"?

The primary is a delegate race, not a "who wins a state" race. If he continues to gain delegates, and then continues to do so in the 30 state races that follow, he can end up with the highest plurality of voters, if not a full majority.

And who was it who said that the superdelegates should break for the candidate with the highest plurality?

Super Tuesday is important; he has to do well. But it is not dispositive.

[Celerity]

26. a huge chunk of the states after ST are Biden friendly, your analysis is faulty I am afraid

March 10: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington primaries; North Dakota firehouse caucus
March 14: Northern Mariana Islands caucuses
March 15: The eleventh Democratic debate will take place in Phoenix, Arizona.
March 17: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio primaries
March 24: Georgia primary
March 29: Puerto Rico primary
April 2020
April 4: Alaska and Hawaii party-run primaries; Louisiana primary; Wyoming caucus
April 7: Wisconsin primary
April 28: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island primaries
April 29: Voting in the Oregon primary begins.
May 2020
May 2: Guam caucus; Kansas party-run primary
May 5: Indiana primary
May 12: Nebraska and West Virginia primaries
May 19: Kentucky and Oregon primaries
June 2020
June 2: District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primaries
June 6: Virgin Islands caucuses


Warren has no chance, but she does play a role in blocking Bernie

[relayerbob]

27. Thanks, but please, could you let the other 2/3 of the country vote??

We'd like to get our chance too.

And we may not all agree with the people on "Super" Tuesday.

And, you may well be surprised.

[pampango]

60. There seems to be a mad rush to crown a nominee after 4 primaries/caucuses.

Whoever has that best of all assets - MOMENTUM, all of their supporters want everyone else to withdraw and anoint their candidate as the winner. I have heard supporters of both Bernie and Joe say the same thing. Even after today there will still be 2/3 left to go.

[ehrnst]

61. That's one way to try to pre-emptively dismiss the poor performance of one's candidate

on Super Tuesday.

[relayerbob]

62. Yep

Exactly, This is a marathon. The early "rabbits" have mostly dropped out, and we are nearing the 8 mile mark *after* tonight.

[Demsrule86]

29. I expect better from you...Biden has had but three days and not much money for super Tuesday either.

If he keeps it close, Bernie is toast. Biden doesn't have to win...the states coming up are good for him.

[honest.abe]

31. OK, CA, MN are not high percent black states. They rank 24th, 27th and 35th respectively.

24. Oklahoma 7.49%
27. California 6.55%
35. Minnesota 3.41%

http://www.censusscope.org/us/rank_race_blackafricanamerican.html

Your spin is showing.

BTW, Biden will win those 6 in your first list. Guaranteed.

[Amishman]

33. your logic is flawed, only 6 states today have an above average AA population

African Americans make up 12.7% of the population

CA, OK, and MN are well below the national average.

Even if you do a ranked order by AA % using the very link you provided; OK is 28th, CA is 29th, MN is 30th.

[HarlanPepper]

39. It's always flawed

What’s great about today is that it’s going to be a bad day for smug.

[squirecam]

64. Lol

Nt

[HarlanPepper]

35. Bahahaha!

Love the creative framing. Love the goalpost moving. Sorry Bernie is having such a rough time.

[greenjar_01]

36. Flop

Sweat.

[bearsfootball516]

37. Yikes...this is a horrendously uneducated take.

[HarlanPepper]

40. As always

[Peacetrain]

50. He's winning super tuesday??? says who???

He just has to keep it close... the man has not had the money to throw at all these states like Bernie and Mike. Even Elizabeth... if he is viable in a state like California.. that is a win.. if he is 20 plus that is a blowout.. because the states after this will be more in Joes wheelhouse..

Super Tuesday is definitely the day of winnowing.. and he has to be viable in those bigger states..but outright win.. jeez you have no faith in Bernies or Mikes efforts at all ..

[samnsara]

53. ummmm we will see....

[Jose Garcia]

54. If Warren can't win anywhere other than Massachusetts, she won't win the nomination

[napi21]

55. Many seem to forget, bernie won every caucus Staate in 2015. We've had all of THREE States voting

so far, and 2 of them were caucuses. All this talk of any candidate having won the nomination is way, way too premature! Take a deep breath everyone, and wait for more results.

[onenote]

59. Not the most astute analysis

Using the OP's analytical framework, let's consider Super Tuesday 2008: Six of the nine states that the OP says are must wins for Biden because of racial demographics were in play on Super Tuesday 2008 (Virginia, Texas, and North Carolina were not). In addition one other state with a substantial AA population was voting on ST 2008. The results: Clinton won four (Arkansas, California, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Obama took Alabama, Georgia and MN. And who got the nomination? (Yes, Obama won Super Tuesday narrowly when the other states are factored in --- but that's the point -- focusing on a handful of states as being determinative at this stage is premature.

[squirecam]

63. You were saying?

Nt

[Kaleva]

65. looks like Biden is doing pretty good tonight.

[squirecam]

66. Really good.

Nt

[HarlanPepper]

68. Hello!

The results are what the results are.

[Tarheel_Dem]

69. I find it amusing that you haven't come back to admit how awfully, awfully wrong you were.

"If Biden cannot win on Super Tuesday where 9 of the 15 jurisdictions have large percentages of African American voters, well, he simply can't win the nomination."

tHe reSULts aRE WHaT tHe reSULts aRE!

And Biden wiped the floor with no money, no field offices, and absolutely no respect from you.

[NurseJackie]

70. You're correct. iT iS aMuSiNg, IsN't iT?

[Tarheel_Dem]

71. I keep waiting, with interest, for the mea culpa. I suspect I'll be waiting for quite a while.

[TexasTowelie]

72. I hope that you are relieved that your concerns were alleviated.

Biden won 8 of the 9 states with large AA populations and he also won two more states that don't have as many African Americans.

[jmg257]

73. And when he does? Then what?

No spin necessary!

[brooklynite]

74. Would you care to revise and extend your remarks?

[bluewater]

75. Has a Super Tuesday winner been declared yet?

It seems I called all those states with large African American voter numbers correctly.

I pointed out that Bide has no excuse not to win the most delegates on Super Tuesday because so many of the primaries had large black electorates.

And, as the race collapsed to a two person matchup, what did we see? Um, A close race for delegates?



So, like everyone else, I am waiting for the final California numbers to see who actually won Super tuesday.

[William769]

78. Must be tough always being disappointed.

Sorry the Democratic party has disappointed you so much.

Cheer up buddy.

[Dem4Life1102]

79. Here is the current popular vote totals

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html

[HarlanPepper]

81. The numbers are what the numbers are.

[Tarheel_Dem]

84. WoW! Is it too soon to call it a "shellacking"?

[bluewater]

85. So no final delegate totals? I thought not LOL

[HarlanPepper]

80. Bernie won

?w=242

[samnsara]

76. what a difference 24 hours makes...

[beachbumbob]

83. yep, never seen this before, but real democrats came out enmass for Biden yesterday

enough of the media narrative of shoving sanders down our party's throat to make Nov easier for trump

[spooky3]

77. 8/9% is well below the national % of African-Americans in the US. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

82. What Difference A Day Makes