Amazing conversation with a Rep councilman re: presidential race

[Liberty Belle]

While having a tire repaired today I had an in-depth talk with a Republican city councilman also having repair work done.

He is a Libertarian-leaning Republican who does not like Trump and voted for Weld in the GOP primary.

He told me that in the general election, he would vote for Sanders as someone he respects as honest and who will fight for real change on college affordability; this Rep put 4 kids through college and is angry over the high cost. His take on a Biden or Bloomberg vs. Trump candidacy was "what's the difference?" that neither would fight for meaningful reforms on college costs, or on healthcare, another concern. He also liked Warren though not as much as Sanders. He was not at all worried about the "socialst" or "communist" labels.

He spoke disdainfully about the "corporate Dems" trying to wrest a win away from Sanders. I believe him; I've known this guy for a decade or more and he's always been a straight shooter. He says he'd rather work with someone of differing political views who is honest and can't be bought rather than a "weasel" who can't be trusted.

This man is an attorney, very educated, has held local offices for many years, and has worked as a consultant on dozens of campaigns.

Interestingly, the council he serves on has two former Reps who have since registered as independents. One has endorsed across party lines in some local races. She is not a Sanders supporter, but would vote for Warren or Biden. The third has endorsed a Democrat in a major race locally. These other two are a realtor/lawyer and a teacher.

Times are changing. Assuming that Republicans, Trump voters and independents are all stupid racist rednecks is a mistake. Yes, those are the ones we see at rallies. But there are a lot of others who are just fed up Americans ready for change and some may surprise you in which candidate they prefer.

I personally cast my vote for Warren, but if Sanders wins the nomination I actually do think he could draw more people than the establishment Dems believe, probably more than Biden and certainly more than Bloomberg. I will support anyone who wins the Dem nomination of course, but Trump showed that conventional wisdom is often wrong -- a lot of people thought he had no chance, and he proved the pundits all wrong.

[apcalc]

1. Trump had the Russians cheating for him.

[TwilightZone]

2. "could draw more people than the establishment Dems believe"

We've been hearing that promise from Sanders for five years and it hasn't materialized. There's just no evidence that it's true.

Had it been true, Sanders would have likely much done better in 2016. He did well among young voters, certainly, but they didn't show up in the numbers everyone seemed to be promising.

This cycle, we're hearing similar claims, but his claim about young voter turnout in Iowa turned out to be false.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/sanders-spins-young-voter-turnout-in-iowa/

Meanwhile, turnout of young voters in 2018 was up significantly, and Sanders wasn't even running.

Young voters could be going to the polls more often for reasons other than Sanders. Climate change, health care, gun control, etc. If that's the case, there may be no advantage at all to Sanders over the other candidates. If that's the case and he doesn't do as well as Biden in older voters, a much more reliable voting bloc, that's a problem.

[Liberty Belle]

3. He never made it into a general election so we don't know how many Reps

or decline to state voters would vote for him.

I don't think a lot of people get that many DO want a "revolution" in terms of things like healthcare and education costs that have spiraled out of control. The old voters don't have to contend with that if they're past 65. The rest of us do.

[TwilightZone]

5. Reps aren't more likely to vote for Sanders than Biden.

Disaffected conservatives would be more likely to vote for Biden, because he's relatively moderate. I'm not sure what Sanders offers that would be more likely to draw them.

Apologies for the link to the Examiner, but it's relevant to the conversation since it offers the perspective of some Never-Trumpers.

"The rise of socialist Bernie Sanders is frustrating Never Trump Republicans who are hoping the Democratic Party nominates a consensus, center-left presidential candidate they are comfortable supporting in November. If Sanders is the Democratic nominee, many will sit out the election and be deprived of the opportunity of voting against President Trump, they said."

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/its-asking-a-lot-never-trump-republicans-draw-the-line-at-bernie-sanders

There are also concerns that Sanders would hurt down-ticket races, particularly in purple/red-leaning areas that we need to keep if we want to keep the House.

"Democratic fears that Bernie Sanders would hurt down-ballot candidates influence suburban voters"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2020/03/02/daily-202-democratic-fears-that-bernie-sanders-would-hurt-down-ballot-candidates-influence-suburban-voters/5e5c9403602ff10d49abf965/

[evertonfc]

4. He will get beat badly

in the southeast and cost us House seats. Just ask the candidates that won those seats in 18 and 19

[abqtommy]

6. I'm reminded of the old saying that "One robin doesn't make it spring." even if it is encouraging.