Democratic Primaries

Renew Deal

(81,858 posts) Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:19 PM Mar 2020

Biden leading TX exit poll

Feel free to check my math, but it looks like Biden is beating Sanders in TX 36.4-31.6

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/entrance-and-exit-polls/texas/democratic

I could be wrong and I don't know if this includes early vote estimates

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

14 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Biden leading TX exit poll (Original Post) Renew Deal Mar 2020 OP

It probably doesn't. But the early vote margin was very close to these numbers. Drunken Irishman Mar 2020 #1

So far it doesn't look good for Joe in Texas still_one Mar 2020 #2

72% of Austin was in with 24% of the state in Renew Deal Mar 2020 #5

This, it is actually looking very promising for joe in texas Amishman Mar 2020 #11

Not true. TexasTowelie Mar 2020 #9

Thanks still_one Mar 2020 #10

The big Biden vote is in Houston and Dallas. That is lagging on the report. Blue_true Mar 2020 #13

Appreciate the perspective still_one Mar 2020 #14

Even a close win is bad for Bernie. Codeine Mar 2020 #3

Sanders should drop out if he loses TX Renew Deal Mar 2020 #6

Thats a bad joke. He ain't gonna do that just to be BootinUp Mar 2020 #12

He looks to be winning Minnesota as well. frazzled Mar 2020 #4

exit polls only check same day votes, not any early vote/mail in ballots cast beachbumbob Mar 2020 #7

I have it about even. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #8

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

1. It probably doesn't. But the early vote margin was very close to these numbers.

Reply to Renew Deal (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:22 PM

Mar 2020

So, that means the race could essentially a toss-up.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

still_one

(92,190 posts)

2. So far it doesn't look good for Joe in Texas

Reply to Renew Deal (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:22 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Renew Deal

(81,858 posts)

5. 72% of Austin was in with 24% of the state in

Reply to still_one (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:23 PM

Mar 2020

There is a lot of non-Sanders support out there. But we'll see

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Amishman

(5,557 posts)

11. This, it is actually looking very promising for joe in texas

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:31 PM

Mar 2020

look at the NYT tracker of where votes are outstanding.

Betting markets are seeing this too, shifting heavily towards Biden on the predictit market

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TexasTowelie

(112,168 posts)

9. Not true.

Reply to still_one (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:28 PM

Mar 2020

I looked at the Texas SOS site and while 29% of counties have reported, only 3% of the precincts are counted. It's way too early to reach any conclusions.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

still_one

(92,190 posts)

10. Thanks

Reply to TexasTowelie (Reply #9)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:30 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)

13. The big Biden vote is in Houston and Dallas. That is lagging on the report.

Reply to still_one (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:47 PM

Mar 2020

Biden actually is in good shape in Texas.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

still_one

(92,190 posts)

14. Appreciate the perspective

Reply to Blue_true (Reply #13)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:49 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Codeine

(25,586 posts)

3. Even a close win is bad for Bernie.

Reply to Renew Deal (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:22 PM

Mar 2020

The upcoming races look bad for him; he needs clear delegate gains, not handfuls here and there.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Renew Deal

(81,858 posts)

6. Sanders should drop out if he loses TX

Reply to Codeine (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:23 PM

Mar 2020

He doesn't need to win it, but he can't lose it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BootinUp

(47,144 posts)

12. Thats a bad joke. He ain't gonna do that just to be

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #6)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:34 PM

Mar 2020

sensible.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

frazzled

(18,402 posts)

4. He looks to be winning Minnesota as well.

Reply to Renew Deal (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:22 PM

Mar 2020

Surprising!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)

7. exit polls only check same day votes, not any early vote/mail in ballots cast

Reply to Renew Deal (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:25 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,471 posts)

8. I have it about even.

Reply to Renew Deal (Original post)

Tue Mar 3, 2020, 10:28 PM

Mar 2020

Using the gender numbers, I get 34.12 Biden, 33.96 Sanders.

Math:

Biden
F: 35% * .56 = 19.6
M: 33% * .44 = 14.52
Total: 34.12

Sander
F: 30% * .56 = 16.8
M: 39% * .44 = 17.16
Total: 33.96

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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