Why Biden's chance of beating Sanders is even bigger than it seems

[Dennis Donovan]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/why-biden-s-chance-beating-sanders-even-bigger-it-seems-n1150026

Three reasons why the former VP is amassing what could be an insurmountable delegate lead.

<snip>

1. Many of the delegates Sanders won yesterday are attributable to early votes cast before South Carolina voted and moderate candidates exited. The only states Sanders won on Tuesday besides his home state of Vermont were California, Colorado and Utah — all states where a huge share of ballots were mailed in before Biden turned the race on its head in South Carolina and Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg exited and endorsed him.

Yet, despite those millions of ballots, Sanders is on track to finish well behind Biden in the Super Tuesday delegate count. And, Sanders won't have the advantage of huge pre-South Carolina early vote troves in any future primary contests. Even in Texas, where Sanders carried the early vote by a substantial margin, Biden was so dominant among Election Day voters that he carried the Lone Star state by four points.

2. The remainder of the March calendar favors Biden, not Sanders. Sanders's strongest groups to date have been young voters and Latinos, two groups that are overrepresented in the Southwest. But California and Texas have already voted, and Biden is poised to stretch his lead in older and more African-American states such as Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi (March 10), Florida and Illinois (March 17) and Georgia (March 24).

3. Democratic voters could decide not to prolong the contest. In 2004, the last time Democrats were vying to beat an incumbent GOP president, John Kerry won a string of impressive February victories and primary voters decided to rally around the frontrunner, effectively ending the race on Super Tuesday. This year, Democrats might be so desperate to close ranks to beat Trump that they increasingly coalesce around Biden.

Next week's key contest is Michigan. Biden should have large advantages in Missouri and Mississippi, two states Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 primaries. But if Sanders can't retain Michigan, a contest he won in 2016, it would be tough to imagine any path back.

</snip>

Valid points.

[George II]

1. A few minutes ago Ari Melber pointed out that in the 13 states last night that were....

....Super Tuesday states last time (California is a new one this year), Sanders was DOWN double digits in each and every one of them.

The bloom is off the rose.

[Thekaspervote]

3. Here's a few numbers on that

Link to tweet

?s=21

[Thekaspervote]

2. New MI poll out today giving Biden a 6 pt lead..

No, I don’t have a link right now

[Dennis Donovan]

5. This one? "Biden ahead of Sanders in MI primary, but there are reasons to distrust recent poll"

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2020/03/04/biden-ahead-of-sanders-in-michigan-primary-but-there-are-reasons-to-distrust-recent-poll

Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders in the most recent poll of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan.

The Detroit News / WDIV-TV survey shows Biden edging out Sanders, 29% to 22.5%.

But there are a few significant reasons to be skeptical of the poll. First, former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who dropped out of the race Wednesday and endorsed Biden, garnered 10.5% in the poll. Given Bloomberg’s centrism and endorsement, it would seem like Biden has the most to gain from the billionaire’s exit. But there’s no data to back that up.

Second, Elizabeth Warren received 7% in the poll. It’s entirely possible she, too, will drop out of the race, leaving another chunk of the electorate to choose between Sanders and Biden. Warren’s progressive platform is closer to Sanders’ than Biden’s.

Perhaps most significantly, Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary in 2016, even though polls showed her leading the race by 21 percentage points. At the time, Nate Silver, a popular political statistician and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, said it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history” if Sanders won in Michigan. The polls underestimated how many young voters would support Sanders.

</snip>

[democrattotheend]

6. Good point about 2016

I forgot that the polls all showed Hillary leading!

[NCProgressive]

4. Sanders has no path to victory

He should gracefully bow out and preserve his legacy. He is getting very bad advice to attack Joe Biden from (no doubt) Sirota, Nina Turner and Johanna Grey, none of whom is known for strategic brilliance.

Sanders is as belligerent as before, claiming they won big last night. A little humility would be far more attractive than deceitful ads starring Obama (and his voice dubbed from several different events) and chest thumping.

[democrattotheend]

7. No, he shouldn't

Not yet. Less than half the party has gotten to vote yet. I think a lot of voters will be pissed if they don't get any say, and some of his most fervent supporters will convince themselves that he was coerced or threatened to get out, no matter what he says.