Just In: CNN is saying that after all the delegates are divided up

[mobeau69]

Joe will still have about a 40 delegate lead.

[still_one]

1. Not a surprise. He had 5 or 6 states with over 50%

[getagrip_already]

2. and bernie won't be able to keep up

as joe slams the southern states and splits the northern states.

[dumptrump1]

13. Next Tuesday

Michigan, Washington, Idaho, Missouri, North Dakota, Democrats Abroad, and Mississippi. If there's one day ripe for a comeback kid named Bernie Sanders, it will be next Tuesday! There are plenty of friendly states for him there to regain his delegate lead -especially if he happens to being coming out fresh from a Warren endorsement.

[dsc]

15. He lost a primary in Washington in 2016 (it was non binding the caucus is what controlled and Bernie

won that), Mississippi will give Biden all or virtually all of its delegates. Biden is leading in MI, and likely to win MO.

[dumptrump1]

18. I think Bernie will win MI especially if Warren endorses him.

MO goes to Biden along with MS. But Washington and Michigan have always been projected on 538 to go Bernie's direction.

[FreeState]

31. The last WA poll was a week ago

Pre-candidates dropping:

Doesn’t look great for Bernie in my opinion. 45% to 36% with consolidated votes (assumptions I know).


Elway Research
Sanders
21%
Bloomberg
15%
Warren
11%
Klobuchar
11%
Biden
10%
Buttigieg
9%
Gabbard
1%

[dumptrump1]

35. Half of bloomies support will go to Bernie and warren

So he is basically a non issue. Warrrns votes will go to Bernie. It could be close, and nothing is for certain until after the vote.

[FreeState]

43. 1/2 of Bloomberg's will NOT go to Sanders

He was pulling moderates.

Edit to add:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-poised-win-big-if-mike-bloomberg-supporters-vote-their-second-choice-new-poll-shows-1490582%3famp=1

The Morning Consult poll found that 48 percent of Bloomberg voters said Biden would be their second choice. Twenty-five percent of Bloomberg voters chose Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and 15 percent picked Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren as second choice candidates.


Of Warren drops those voters aren’t going to Bernie.

[dumptrump1]

58. Who do you expect Warrens voters to go to?

Biden? With the exception of the few here on DU, the vast majority of warren supporters are not going for an establishment moderate democrat after voting for an anti establishment, progressive one. That is silly.

[FreeState]

59. The five I've talked to today are all voting Joe if she drops out

I know quite a few gay Warren supporters that won’t vote for him either (mostly because of the homophobic comments by Bernie Bros).

So what makes you think a conservative Democrat that has Warren as their second choice in some polls would move to Bernie if she dropped? They didn’t ask third choice - but my guess is good as yours but I don’t see them picking Bernie.

[dumptrump1]

60. Well your anecdotal evidence not withstanding

Conservative democrats don't happen to be the bulk of her support.

[FreeState]

61. We're talking about Bloomberg supporters n/t

[dumptrump1]

63. oh I'm just basing that off a poll I saw recently. 50 Biden, 25 or so bernie and 25 or so warren.

Not everybody who votes for a conservative democrat is necessarily a conservative democrat, but I think the desire to beat trump gave bloomberg a somewhat broader while still small, coalition of voters than other folks.

[MyNameGoesHere]

62. The Independent Senator from Vermont will have another

Choke day. One wonders how the Independent Senator from Vermont, who hates the establishment always ends up in my party. May I suggest the Independent Senator from Vermont look carefully at his title and chose another parry? Seems best for everyone.

[dumptrump1]

64. the party that he has caucused with and supported for more than 30 years?

Does that really make sense to you?

[MyNameGoesHere]

73. We probably have Stockholm syndrome

[ehrnst]

81. Hon, he caucuses with the Democrats because they generously let him do so,

so he would have more of a voice.

I have yet to hear a word of gratitude from him to party leaders. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Sanders: I don't consider myself a Democrat

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Tuesday night that he still does not consider himself a Democrat despite taking part in a Democratic National Committee (DNC) unity tour with the party's new chairman, Tom Perez.

"No, I'm an Independent," Sanders said when asked by MSNBC's Chris Hayes whether he now identifies as a Democrat.

Link to tweet

[ehrnst]

79. So why didn't they support Bernie to start with?

[William769]

67. In what reality does that happen?

[dumptrump1]

68. this one?

50 Biden 40 bernie/warren

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-poised-win-big-if-mike-bloomberg-supporters-vote-their-second-choice-new-poll-shows-1490582

[William769]

70. Page not found

Now I see your reality world.

[dumptrump1]

71. it works just fine

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-poised-win-big-if-mike-bloomberg-supporters-vote-their-second-choice-new-poll-shows-1490582


Same link

[Proud Veteran]

53. Poll: Biden Leads Sanders in Michigan following Dominant Super Tuesday Performance

Local poll Detroit News/WDIV show Biden with 6 1/2 point lead and that was before Super Tuesday.
Also MI universities will be on spring break on March 10th and that won't bode well for Bernie.
Also many of us retired auto workers are perfectly happy with our Medicare Advantage plans(not MFA).

[bluedye33139]

26. Seattle PI had Bernie with 21% support in Washington.

[bobbieinok]

42. Hard to believe EW would endorse a man who works vs the democrats

Who actively hates the dems

And 'doesn't work well with others'

[dumptrump1]

69. harder to believe she would work for a man who fired her because she wouldn't protect corporate

Interests over people

[ehrnst]

80. That's just silly.

You know that's not true.

[Woodycall]

47. You know...

the premature ball spiking, the end zone dancing, and the general gloating is starting to piss a few people of good will off here. Myself included. That's no way to "unify the party"...

[hangaleft]

72. I had the same reaction, Woody

There were two threads in particular by a certain poster that were downright gloating. And, if there’s one thing I can’t stand, it’s gloating.

I was on the fence. That poster pushed me over the edge. If Warren bows out, I’m all in for Sanders. I will NOT support Biden and his obnoxious supporters. (There are not many, but those who are obnoxious are repugnant and I will NOT support their candidate.)

[tavernier]

74. That's exactly how I felt when Sanders was surging in the beginning.

I didn’t think he was the right candidate, worried about his health, thought the republicans would destroy him, and found a lot of his supporters to be bullies.
But I would have voted for him if he was the one running in the GE. And still will if that’s the case.

[totodeinhere]

48. Maybe not but theoretically yes he could.

This race has had so many twists and turns so far that I for one am not ready to jump to any final conclusions just yet. It wasn't too long ago that some pundits were ready to write Joe off but then Joe came roaring back. So is this it or could there be more surprises ahead? I'm willing to wait and see.

[TwilightZone]

3. Sounds about right, pending the rest of CA.

Biden is up by 65.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/799979293/how-many-delegates-do-the-2020-presidential-democratic-candidates-have

There are 144 delegates left to award in CA and last-minute mail-in voting will probably favor Biden, so might even be a little higher than that.

[totodeinhere]

50. Mail-in voting might favor Bernie since so many mail-in ballets were submitted

prior to South Carolina when Bernie was riding high in the polls. But we shall see.

[TwilightZone]

51. A lot of those might have been already counted.

Mail-in ballots could be sent in as late as yesterday. They're counted as long as they're received by Friday. Ones sent Monday or Tuesday would probably favor Biden.

[totodeinhere]

54. I know. We'll see.

The Bernie camp expects their California margin to increase over time but whether or not that is just wishful thinking we shall see.

[democrattotheend]

4. So Bernie wasn't wrong

In saying it was neck and neck. IMO the media set expectations for him too high, although he didn't really do anything to manage expectations the way he probably should have.

Despite all the handwringing by some of his supporters, if he manages to win going forward he'll have a much stronger claim to the nomination than if he won by default with 30-35% of the vote in a 6-person race. It's a lot harder politically for the superdelegates to override the pledged delegates if he goes in with a plurality at the end of a 2-person race with 45-49% of the total delegates.

[Codeine]

6. He won't end up with a plurality.

Joe is about to run the table in several states.

[lapfog_1]

8. if joe has the plurality going to the convention but not enough for the nomination

outright.

What will Bernie Sanders do then? Force a floor fight? Try to get the Super delegates to vote for him on the second ballot?

After the primaries are over, if Joe has a delegate lead, what is the path forward?

[Codeine]

11. If Bernie can get the votes to swing his way

in a second ballot then it’s game on. That’s politics.

The fact, however, is that Bernie lacks any such acumen.

[deurbano]

21. Or any such allies.

[sweetloukillbot]

23. Bernie will say that Joe has won the nomination

He's already stated that the person with the plurality should win. It's obvious what he'll do. /s

[Wounded Bear]

44. LOL!!!

Yeah, he'll stick with that if he's not leading.

[democrattotheend]

9. You're probably right, but let's see

This primary season has been incredibly unpredictable. I'm not taking it as a given that a candidate who was left for dead less than a week ago has it all wrapped up. IMO the media made Bernie the frontrunner too soon and treated Biden as the underdog despite the fact that he's a former VP who started out with more endorsements and institutional support from Democratic groups than anyone else. His comeback was impressive, but I'm not ready to write Bernie's obituary yet.

FWIW, I don't have any skin in the game. I'm leaning toward Warren but accept that she probably won't be an option by the time I get to vote. I don't know who I'll vote for if it's between Bernie and Biden.

[LizBeth]

5. Biden, for the win.

[Renew Deal]

7. This is better than Bidens best case scenario

[BlueJac]

10. Get The Go Joe Going!

All in!

[VMA131Marine]

12. The primaries are effectively over ...

Biden won! He’s going to be the nominee.

[CentralMass]

29. There are more than three months to the convention and Biden has a (reportedly) 40 delegate lead and

it's over ?

[Blue_true]

52. Biden has a lot more big states left.

Sanders only has Oregon, Washington State, Wisconsin and maybe Michigan (though Biden leads there now).

Biden has Florida, Georgia (330 pledged delegates between the two), Illinois, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Conneticutt, likely New Jersey and New York State, Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC.

There are just far more pro-Biden big states left on the table. Things can change, but unless Biden makes a big mistake, he most likely come to the convention with the most pledged delegates and the most votes.

Biden needed to stay within 150 pledged delegates of Sanders after Super Tuesday, he is going to do far better than that.

[CentralMass]

57. Well we will have to see what Senator Warren is going to do.

[Lucid Dreamer]

14. Fortunately for Joe nothing can upset political predictions at this stage of the race.

[Don't have time to hunt for the sarcasm flag.]

[CentralMass]

16. At this point in time or after the primary is over ?

40 delegate at this moment with 3 + months to the convention is not unsurmountable

[mvd]

24. Agreed. I am more worried about getting Sanders momentum..

for important states ahead, some of which could be rough for him. But t does show that it was not a disaster last night.

[CentralMass]

28. Yes. I agree. The conventional wisdom is that Biden will have Joementum. Personally, I'm about to

donate another $27 to Bernie.

[dware]

65. And I'm about to donate another $500.00 to Biden's campaign.

Joe Biden has pretty much neutralized Bernie with the win in SC and his shellacking of Bernie last night.

[honest.abe]

17. That is a significant lead that will be difficult for Sanders to make up in upcoming states..

which are mostly favorable to Biden. In fact Biden is likely to gain many delegates in the next states and could end up with a majority if things go his way.

[warmfeet]

19. May the winners win,

the losers come in second, or a bit less than that, and all Democrats vote for the nominee in the general election.

I'm going with that. The alternative gives me some really bad, shitty feeling. I don't like the bad shitty feeling.

[George II]

20. Going into yesterday they were saying if he kept within 100 delegates yesterday....

....he'd be in good shape. He's about 140 delegates ahead of that.

[dumptrump1]

32. Anything more than 140 would have been a routing

For a map as favorable as last nights.

[LiberalFighter]

22. Green Papers shows Biden currently with a 72 delegate lead.

628 - Biden
556 - Sanders

In California, 401 of the 415 delegates have been allocated. This could still change. But there are currently only 14 delegates not assigned yet.

4 - Alabama *
9 - Arkansas *
14 - California *
23 - Colorado
5 - Maine (Split 8 - 8 between Biden & Sanders)
14 - Massachusetts *
1 - Minnesota *
13 - North Carolina *
0 - Oklahoma *
8 - Tennessee *
58 - Texas *
11 - Utah
0 - Vermont
0 - Virginia *

* States Biden has the most delegates

[dumptrump1]

30. We should probably wait for the votes to be counted

Before allocating delegates for ca. It might be closer or wider than we expect, still.

[TBoard_in_SK]

49. Green Papers - state by state 'unofficial' results ...

Have the following:

686 - Biden
617 - Sanders

(Based on current % voting totals - used LiberalFighter's totals & went into each state's - unofficial results - to arrive at the above totals.)

Obviously Colorado & Utah uncounted votes, California mail-in and late counts will likely impact these numbers slightly based on CD-splits for each - but it looks like about a 69-70 delegate lead for Biden after all the dust settles on Super Tuesday.

Long way to go ... it would be good to see some new polling in remaining Primary states to see the likelihood of one candidate being able to reach 1991 on the first ballot - without Bloomberg in the mix. Might be worthwhile polling with head-to-head match-up & Biden/Sanders/Warren match-up ...

It was a very exciting night - regardless of your preferred candidate!

Curious to see the final post-Super-Tuesday delegate tally ... to see how close Green Papers gets (using their interim numbers).

Thanks ...
(Longtime enjoyer of DU - first time poster)

[gldstwmn]

25. Not exactly a rout is it?

Yet everybody else should just drop out. The DNC hath spoken.

[tirebiter]

45. When and where didth DNC spake?

So far all I've seen is Bernie bros calling on Warren to drop out>?

[gldstwmn]

56. Look around. You'll see it if you want to.

[LanternWaste]

75. Banal bumper stickers are not evidence-based.

They simply advertise our biases.

Look around... if you want to, you'll see anything you want to. Even imaginary stuff.

[gldstwmn]

77. Wasn't talking about bumper stickers.

Do people still utilize those?

[dumptrump1]

27. Isn't that like a 1% lead?

In other words: quite insignificant.

[pnwmom]

34. Super Tuesday was supposed to be Bernie's best day. Not quite. nt

[dumptrump1]

36. Hence why 2 candidates dropped out and e

Biden got a ton of endorsements the day before, because evrbpdy knew if that were the case, Bidens path would be all but non existent. Even with the developments and Warren splitting the progressive vote, Biden still could not put it away.

[pnwmom]

38. And the rest was supposed to be easier for Biden and harder for Sanders than yesterday.

I don't see how Sanders recovers from this.

Most people just want someone normal in the White House, not someone who waves his arms around and scowls at people, and promises things that will never happen.

And thinking Democrats don't want a nominee who will drag down our numbers in the House and Senate.

[dumptrump1]

39. That was the narrative before

But it has changed substantially since

[pnwmom]

40. No, it's been proven. Hence, Biden's substantial win. n/t

[LanternWaste]

76. You make so very many unsupported allegations.

We get it...

[pnwmom]

33. Including California? n/t

[mobeau69]

41. Yes

[pandr32]

37. Joe got his MoJo working!

[Cha]

55. Aloha, pandr!

[pandr32]

82. Aloha, Cha!

I am so glad we will be losing Tulsi

[Cha]

83. I know right! And, getting Kai!

[William769]

66. Kick & recommended.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

78. That's all? Wow