Cook Political: Why Biden's chance of beating Sanders is even bigger than it seems

[brooklynite]

NBC News

At first glance, Biden's delegate lead doesn't look that imposing. But there are three reasons Super Tuesday may have just given him a lead that could be extremely difficult for Sanders to erase by the July convention:

1. Many of the delegates Sanders won Tuesday are attributable to early votes cast before South Carolina voted and moderate candidates exited. The only states Sanders won Tuesday besides his home state, Vermont, were California, Colorado and Utah — all states where a huge share of ballots were mailed in before Biden turned the race on its head in South Carolina and Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg exited and endorsed him. (While California remained too early for NBC News to call, Sanders was leading there late Wednesday.)

Yet, despite those millions of ballots, Sanders is on track to finish well behind Biden in the Super Tuesday delegate count. And Sanders won't have the advantage of huge pre-South Carolina early vote troves in any future contests. Even in Texas, where Sanders carried the early vote by a substantial margin, Biden was so dominant among Election Day voters that he carried the Lone Star state by 4 points.

2. The rest of the March calendar favors Biden, not Sanders. Sanders' strongest groups to date have been young voters and Latinos, two groups that are overrepresented in the Southwest. But California and Texas have already voted, and Biden is poised to stretch his lead in older and more African American states such as Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi (March 10), Florida and Illinois (March 17) and Georgia (March 24).

[onetexan]

1. Point #2 tells us the nomination is essentially decided: JOE BIDEN

Time for Sanders to close shop and get behind Biden.

[dawg day]

5. How long did it take in 2016?

I was impressed with how fully Buttigieg and Klobuchar came in the other day.

[onetexan]

8. Sanders went all the way to the convention in 2016 and did Hillary's campaign unnecessary headache

& damage. His campaign is destructive and divisive. He should be doing what Pete, Amy, Beto & Michael Bloomberg did - get behind Biden to help us defeat the Idiot in the GE. I'm pretty sure Beto & Amy helped deliver MN & TX for us. Texas!! I had to stay up past 1am waiting for my home state to be called. Biden's momentum was undeniable, and he spent $89K in the state.

[OKNancy]

2. No mention of Bloomberg's money and effort

Is Bloomberg going to insert himself in the primary or wait until the general?

[True Blue American]

4. I think Bloomberg will

Now pour his money into Congress, especially the Senate.

[honest.abe]

7. Bloomberg is still running negative Trump ads.

His campaign manager on MSNBC yesterday said that would continue under a Super Pac org. When asked if they were going to run ads on Bernie.. he only answered "we are running an entirely negative campaign now".. with a smile.

[beachbumbob]

3. Its all but over for sanders, he and his followers still don't get where the bulk of

America falls on the political scale. WE ARE NOT NOR EVER BEEN OR WILL BE A LEFTEST country. No amount of foot stomping and sulking and threatening to boycott supporting democrats will ever change it.

If you WANT CHANGE, it must happen from inside NOT from threats and temper tantrums

[NurseJackie]

6. "If you WANT CHANGE, it must happen from inside NOT from threats and temper tantrums"

If you WANT CHANGE, it must happen from inside NOT from threats and temper tantrums

Yes. This. Thank you!

[highplainsdem]

9. K&R