Polls show Biden and Sanders are probably going to split Warren's voters

[turbinetree]

That’s arguably a win for Biden after his strong Super Tuesday performance.

By Dylan [e-mail]@vox.com Mar 5, 2020, 12:50pm EST

Sen. Elizabeth Warren might be closer to Sen. Bernie Sanders ideologically, but it looks like her voters are actually split between Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden, the remaining two presidential candidates.

Now that Warren has dropped out of the presidential race, the question is what happens to her supporters. Second-choice polling from Morning Consult doesn’t show either Sanders or Biden with a decisive advantage: Earlier this week, before she dropped out, 43 percent of Warren supporters said they’d move to Sanders, and 36 percent said they would go with Biden if she dropped out. Add it all up with those candidates’ current vote shares nationally, and Biden is at 40 percent (potentially) and Sanders moves to 31 percent, according to Morning Consult’s polling.

One wild card: Does Warren affirmatively urge her candidates to support Sanders? She could also support Biden, in theory, or simply decline to endorse at all. So far, we have few clues about a possible endorsement.

Warren had a disappointing Super Tuesday, in which she finished fourth in the popular vote and finished third in her home state of Massachusetts. Doing well this week was crucial to her campaign’s ability to carry on, and when it didn’t happen, she dropped out.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/5/21166321/democratic-primary-polls-2020-warren-voters-biden-sanders

[honest.abe]

1. So basically a wash.

Biden wins in that case.

[LaurenOlimina]

28. I'm afraid you are correct.

[LisaM]

2. This one's going to Biden.

It's with a little bit of a heavy heart, but I have been bracing myself since Saturday.

Sanders has done irreparable harm to the Democratic party and I'm tired of it.

[NurseJackie]

6. "Sanders has done irreparable harm to the Democratic party and I'm tired of it." -- Agreed!

Sanders has done irreparable harm to the Democratic party and I'm tired of it.

Agreed! His smears and attacks and the nonstop denigration of our great party has accomplished NOTHING good. Instead, he has only served to divide and weaken us. The lies and smears have only created suspicion and resentment that runs in both directions. He's created a rift that will last for a generation or more... long after he's dead and gone. His snub of Obama and threatening to primary him was an attempt to weaken him.

Bernie's toxic rhetoric only served to create negativity. Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

[NCProgressive]

23. I agree completely

[FreeState]

35. I know that feeling

stilll drinking out of my BOOT EDGE EDGE coffee mug and realizing I have to vote for the best option left. (I did on Tuesday).

[dumptrump1]

3. bernie has a very narrow shot if she doesn't endorse anybody

A better shot if she endorses him, and is out effectively doneso if she endorses Biden.

[NurseJackie]

8. Yeah... he called her a liar on national TV. She's not going to endorse him.

[dumptrump1]

9. I imagine she could get over the perceived slight.

Being fired -or driven out of the obama admin by biden because she wouldn't put corporate interests over people, cuts a bit deeper I imagine.

[ehrnst]

12. Care to cite your source on that? At least she never profited from legislation that she pushed

that others (Paul Wellstone, for example) called "environmental racism."

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/16/1516075/-Sanders-are-still-profiting-from-Sierra-Blanca-nuclear-waste-dump-per-their-2014-tax-return

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/8/1481494/-Sierra-Blanca-Bernie-Sanders-Paul-Wellstone-a-Poor-Minority-Community-and-a-Nuclear-Waste-Dump

So there's that.

Thanks in advance for those sources.

[Magoo48]

14. It is immensely disappointing no candidate Is left to go after corporate corruption on Wall Street.

In the next 8 years, Wall Street and its counterparts globally must be reigned in and convinced to adapt; or Climate Crisis will unravel civilization as we now know it. This is according to the best science available. Playing patty cakes and making hollow long-term deals with corporate polluters and the 1% will lead to chaos. Who now will be open to what must be accomplished?

[George II]

17. You should find out what really happened before drawing conclusions.

[Cha]

18. Can you prove that?

[NCProgressive]

24. What about the snake emojis?

That was disgusting and not a word from Bernie to scold his supporters.

[NurseJackie]

34. I'm afraid that poster will not be responding to you...

... ever.

[NCProgressive]

39. May God bless his soul

[wishstar]

4. I and spouse supported Warren before switching to Joe

Just told spouse I hope she gets to stay in the Senate for rest of our lifetimes helping Americans.

[LaurenOlimina]

29. We switched to Bernie in this house.

Joe's negatives are too easily exploited, he has been a weak campaigner, and his solutions are not up to the scale of the problem.

[squirecam]

5. Biden should win anyway

The latest Michigan poll results were:

Biden 29, Sanders 23, Bloomberg 11, Warren 7, Buttigieg 6, Klobuchar 3

Even if Sanders got all of the Warren vote, Biden likely gets most of the other vote.

If Sanders can’t win Michigan, he certainly can’t win Mississippi. The delegate math for him gets worse, as Florida and Georgia vote after that.

[Jarqui]

11. "Florida and Georgia vote after that."

Those states could finish Sanders off.
The recent Florida poll was appallingly bad for Sanders

[NurseJackie]

13. Bernie's Florida numbers are HUMILIATING! He's not even VIABLE!

If those numbers hold, he'll get ZERO delegates from Florida.

I think it was his praise of Castro and the Cuban Revolution that really did him in.

[Jarqui]

15. They're bad

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-6847.html

In all those polls, Sanders only met the 15% threshold once with 16%.

With the others out, that will change but he's going to get clobbered in the second biggest state left ..

Where is he going to make up those delegates?

[NurseJackie]

16. "Where is he going to make up those delegates?" --- He can't. The numbers aren't there. It's OVER!

"Where is he going to make up those delegates?"

He can't. The numbers aren't there. It's OVER!

It's a lost cause. Going forward, it's just a swan song... a final farewell. This was his last chance and he knows it.

I'm not sure how he'll exit, but I can tell you that my expectations are low. With so much name-calling... all the lies and smears and attacks on Democrats and the Democratic party... it's hard to imagine any endorsement being taken seriously by the public or anyone who was listening and paying attention to his anti-Democratic party screeds.

[Jarqui]

19. It was a rhetorical question. He can't make a delegate loss like that up

It was a call to a political revolution that never materialized.

His claim to Maddow when asked why the record numbers of young people didn't show up in the primaries was to promise they would in the general ... so hollow.

Bernie has fought for many of these things his whole life.
That is a part of him that appeals to me - he is sincere with many of his beliefs.
He will never let go of them. He'll keep fighting for them in the Senate.

It will be a brutal disappointment for him.
His lifetime of work & aspirations given a thumbs down by Democrats.
All politicians go through it but not very many who have been fighting for these causes since he was a student in school.

I'll always respect him for his tenacity and for being more genuine than most in politics.

I hope he can find a way to gracefully exit without being too divisive.

[NurseJackie]

20. I understand.

It was a call to a political revolution that never materialized.

It was doomed from the beginning. He couldah been a contendah, but he went about it all wrong. He just couldn't stop attacking the party that he wanted to lead and that he needed support from.

His claim to Maddow when asked why the record numbers of young people didn't show up in the primaries was to promise they would in the general ... so hollow.

I saw that clip today. I chuckled. (And rolled by eyes.)

He will never let go of them. He'll keep fighting for them in the Senate.

That's where he should be. And even then, he's not very effective. Hillary recently pointed that out in a HULU documentary special. Also Barney Frank had some rather critical words about him along the same lines.

I'll always respect him for his tenacity and for more genuine than most in politics.

Yet, it never seems to get him anywhere. Headlines and dead-ends... nothing much changes, if at all.

I hope he can find a way to gracefully exit without being too divisive.

Oh, lord... so do I. So do I.

[Jarqui]

21. On this "it never seems to get him anywhere", I disagree

When this primary wraps up, he may have 20 million plus votes for 2016 & 2020

That might not be Mount Rushmore but when you look at where he came from and the path he took, that may not be a big effin' deal, but it is a notable achievement.

The bigger achievement is that he has planted progressive seeds. He may not live to see it all come to pass but it is very much in the conversation of this party and a bunch of folks are not going to forget it. The conversation about many of these policies has been changed since 2016 forever. He fought for it his whole life. And he'll still be fighting for it after he concedes. He deserves credit for that. He's been sincere in his beliefs for the good of all of us - which a heck of a lot of Washington can't say.

[NurseJackie]

22. He's done far more damage to his Socialist cause/s than good.

that may not be a big effin' deal, but it is a notable achievement.

Those are vanity numbers. Something for his ego only. In the real world, he's done far more damage to his Socialist cause/s than good. He's created distrust and resentment. He's alienated those who would be in the best position to partner with or help him. We already know what Hillary said to Hulu... "nobody likes him" (or words to that effect) and that he can't work well with others. He has weakened and divided the Democratic party and that puts us again in the position of being vulnerable when facing a cheating GOP that's being helped by Russia.

That might not be Mount Rushmore

I do not see him as being any sort of hero, Rushmore or otherwise.

All I'm trying to say here is that I'm not as sentimental as you. I'm not as forgiving as you. I know what I've seen. My eyes did not deceive me. I don't easily forget when I feel betrayed and when I see others around me being betrayed and smeared. And I know that I'm not the only one who feels this way. I'm not exactly sure why anyone thinks he "deserves" anything from me... other than the same amount of contempt that he's heaped on the Democratic party and other loyal and stalwart Democrats such as myself.

He's been sincere in his beliefs for the good of all of us

That's hardly a compliment. You do realize, don't you, that many many people are sincere in a lot of things they believe in. That's not always a good thing.

[showblue22]

40. This is perfect. This is how I feel.

Bernie has absolutely harmed the progressive cause. The US vs Them, the aggressive bullying of people who do not agree with him has made a lot of progressives and naturally allies say, " OK, I'm one of them then. If you want US vs THEM, I'm them.

[NCProgressive]

25. Fidel Castro is not as popular in Florida as compared to Vermont.

[NurseJackie]

27. Ouch.

[showblue22]

41. Exactly!

[rickford66]

7. So, she "did" have her own lane.

Right between the right and left wings of the party. Although most Dems I know lean towards Bernie's policies. Over the past few years I've given to Obama/Biden, Warren and Sanders, so I believe they're all on the correct side of history.

[loyalsister]

43. The smartest candidate in the race

too smart for a country that celebrates reality TV to the point of electing a participant president and allowed serious news to be turned into a cash cow for someone like Bloomberg.

[LizBeth]

10. Many of us are HRC supporters and would never walk to Sanders camp.

[NCProgressive]

26. This

[Kacy]

32. Amen

…unless the only other camp was Trump’s.

[beachbumbob]

30. people always have choice but if you want to actually WIN then you best consider the choice

carefully. Pie in the sky idealist have little if ny chance to win nationally.

1972 1972 1972

[ancianita]

31. Not this one. I've already donated big to Biden.

[empedocles]

33. Elizabeth has not spoken, to, or endorsed, anyone yet.

BS did try ank 'kill' her in Mass. primary.

[Laserio]

36. why no polls about Bloomberg followers?

The media seems only interested in where Warren voters will migrate, and not interested at all in the fact that a lot of Bloomberg voters will go to Biden.

[TwilightZone]

37. Most are probably assuming most BB voters will go to Biden.

They're more than likely correct.

[Hortensis]

38. We have some clues. Warren refused to endorse Sanders in 2016

and endorsed Hillary.

And: Exactly one Democratic senator out of 45 has endorsed Sanders this time, and that's his fellow VT senator, Pat Leahy. (And only one in 2016 -- Mike Gravel, who co-endorsed him with Gabbard. Leahy endorsed Hillary in 2016 and refused Sanders.) Sanders hasn't changed a bit, so presumably the political situation changed for Leahy. But Warren doesn't share his need to fall in line for Vermonters, who went overwhelmingly for Sanders.

But the biggest is that Warren is radical only in the scope of her big plans to advance the traditional values exemplified in the New Deal to meet today's realities, not in ideology. Notably, FDR's New Dealers had to fight and defeat those who insisted passionately that not socializing as other nations (all now failed) were doing was a massive, corrupt betrayal of the people. In this era, their descendant Sanders is carrying their battle forward, not the capitalist New Dealers.

And another thought to toss in: In 2015 if Biden ran, he wanted Warren, and reportedly only Warren, to be his VP. They even met to discuss and she reportedly departed with the door left open. At that time.

And that's without even getting into her writings, and his. Although a few goals seem to intersect, their differences are huge. And a couple days ago, Warren, a great achiever, did say something to the effect that Sanders never accomplished anything in all his years in congress, which is very true, and why on earth would she endorse someone for president who can't perform or admit that huge deficiency in ability if she was going to?

[NurseJackie]

42. His colleagues know him best, I suppose.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/hillary-clinton-debuts-hulu-doc-at-sundance-addresses-bernie-sanders-comments-1272839

Shortly after THR's in-depth interview with Clinton was published on Tuesday, her comments about Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders — "Nobody likes him, nobody wants to work with him, he got nothing done," she says in the documentary — prompted the hashtag #nobodylikeshim to quickly became a top trend on Twitter.

[Hortensis]

44. Yes. Lol strange, but it's reminding me of that video of him

incredibly boorishly coming up from behind and knocking as he passed into 80+-year-old (!) Dianne Feinstein in the senate chamber -- even though he had plenty of room to go around. And just as indicative, Senator Feinstein's irritated but clearly unsurprised smack at his back as he passed in front of her.

[democrattotheend]

45. That's not entirely true

She didn't endorse Hillary until after the primaries were over. She was the only woman in the senate who refused to endorse Hillary until the voting was over.

Do you have a source for the part about Warren and Biden in 2015? That is pretty surprising, considering how long they had been on opposite sides of certain issues.

[Hortensis]

46. Endorsing after the primary makes reminding

that Warren endorsed Hillary "not entirely true"? It's entirely true.

And yes there are sources, statements from or attributed to Biden insiders, and I believe others. I'd heard a rumor when it happened and was thrilled to have it confirmed by staffers in interviews and whatever. Go find them if you want to check. The event was 2015, I'm not sure when the interviews etc. were. This doesn't fit the pack-media themes, so cable, etc., didn't run with it.

And Warren and Biden are on the same side of the issues. The Republicans and those they serve are on the other side. Their differences are in the details, usually the timetables and scope of action and the methods for achieving their common goals. All liberal Democrats, for instance, want universal healthcare and a healthy Social Security system that serves its recipients properly.

Btw, a common mistake is to be mislead by candidates' critical need to differentiate themselves from their fellow Democrats, and to make themselves sound much better, into thinking they're on "opposite" sides. Venal media push fake controversy to sell papers. It's easily avoided pretty permanently by informing ourselves about who the pols are, what they believe in, and their actual records of action. Once you know Biden has been a strong protector of SocSec and its recipients for 50 years, you can't be fooled by lies that he is not or on "opposite sides" with Warren.

[democrattotheend]

47. Everyone endorsed Hillary after the primary - including Bernie himself (eventually)

Endorsing after the voting is over doesn't count as taking sides. Your post made it seem like she endorsed Hillary over Bernie, which I don't see as being entirely accurate because all the voting was over by then.

With respect to Biden and Warren, I wasn't talking about differences they had during this primary. I'm talking about testy exchanges they had years ago when he was chair of the Senate Banking Committee, long before she was a senator, and the fact that she was a thorn in the Obama Administration's side during the financial crisis.