Bernie Sanders Might Have a Michigan Problem - An analysis of how states have voted so far, particul

[NurseJackie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/upshot/bernie-sanders-michigan-problem.html

Bernie Sanders Might Have a Michigan Problem

An analysis of how states have voted so far, particularly white voters, shows he’s vulnerable to a reversal of his striking victory there in 2016.


Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally in Detroit in October. The primary in Michigan is Tuesday.Credit...Scott Heins/Getty Images

It seems clear that Bernie Sanders needs to change the fundamental trajectory of the Democratic primary over the coming 12 days. And at first glance, the next contests — the states voting Tuesday — would seem to offer a promising set of opportunities. Among them is Michigan, where he posted the signature victory of his 2016 bid.

But an analysis of the primary results so far suggests that Michigan might not be as favorable to him as it was four years ago. Instead of giving him a chance to reclaim his momentum, Michigan could wind up dealing him a stinging and symbolic defeat.

[Read: As Bernie Sanders pushed for closer ties, the Soviet Union spotted opportunity.]

Of course, Super Tuesday demonstrates that a lot can change in just a few days. Perhaps Elizabeth Warren’s departure will provide a needed boost. Maybe Mr. Sanders will succeed in blunting Joe Biden’s support in Michigan by attacking his record on trade, or perhaps Mr. Biden will come under scrutiny and lose momentum, just as Mr. Sanders did after his big victory in Nevada.

Michigan will also be the first state in the industrial Midwest to vote; it is possible that the trends evident elsewhere won’t materialize there.

But Mr. Sanders has so far failed to match his 2016 strength across the white, working-class North this year, and that suggests it will be hard for him to win Michigan.

This pattern has held without exception this primary season. It was true in Iowa and New Hampshire against Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. It was true in Maine, Minnesota, Massachusetts and even Vermont on Super Tuesday against Mr. Biden.

[NurseJackie]

1. Detroit Demographics

Detroit Demographics

Black or African American: 78.64%
White: 14.55%
Other race: 2.92%
Two or more races: 1.95%
Asian: 1.57%
Native American: 0.34%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.03%

[Meadowoak]

10. Most of Michigan's vote comes from the Detroit suburbs. Those demographics differ wildly

From those of the city of Detroit that you posted.

[NurseJackie]

11. People be like... where all the black-folk at?

METRO DETROIT DEMOGRAPHICS: The census reported 70.1% White, 22.8% African American, 0.3% Native American, 3.3% Asian, 0.02% Pacific Islander, 1.2% from other races, and 2.2% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 6.2% of the population.

So it's still a very fair question... where all the black-folk at? He ain't even at 22% if those are the stats you want to use. Hmmm. Bernie's definitely got a problem. That explains why he's abandoned Mississippi. That also explains why his rally in North Charleston, SC (the one in an historically black church venue, in black neighborhood, in a majority black city) had demographics what were whiter than Vermont.

[LongtimeAZDem]

2. Geeze; it's like playing "Where's Waldo?"

[NurseJackie]

3. Michigan will be a BUST for Bernie

There are few obvious opportunities for Mr. Sanders to make up ground in Michigan. It has an above-average black population, and Mr. Biden will most likely win black voters by a comfortable margin, even if a more modest one than in the South. The suburbs around Detroit are not likely to be particularly favorable for Mr. Sanders, either. He lost suburban Oakland and Macomb Counties in 2016, and he has consistently struggled in affluent suburbs this cycle.

[greatauntoftriplets]

13. I found one!

But it took a while.

[NurseJackie]

14. ...

[Demsrule86]

4. He should have a problem with Michigan. It was not pushed hard in 16 that he voted against

saving the autos. Sanders voted against the Emergency stabilization act which contained 700 billion dollars for autos.(TARP) I remember it well as my husband's job depended on it. His excuse was he would not vote for Wall Street bailouts...and he voted more than once against autos too. And that is why he should never be our nominee. He was willing to allow all those jobs to evaporate because of his ideology...he is far too rigid and uncompromising to govern effectively even if he won a general which is unlikely in my view.... If Bush hadn't taken money out from Tarp funds, the autos would have been lost and we most likely would still be mired in depression. I would add that Sanders voted against releasing the Tarp funds in January after Obama was sworn in; thus further endangering the autos...Obama used the autos to pull us back from the brink, and it was a close thing. Obama orchestrated the most successful bankruptcy in history for the autos...if you don't think this is correct...take a look at Delphi...formerly Packard and their history of bankruptcy.



https://www.latimes.com/opinion/la-ol-sanders-auto-bailout-20160307-story.html

[NurseJackie]

5. Sanders voted against the Emergency stabilization act which contained 700 billion dollars for autos.

Sanders voted against the Emergency stabilization act which contained 700 billion dollars for autos.

Well, that shouldn't play very well in Detroit. He really has received "kid-glove treatment" throughout his career, hasn't he?

[Demsrule86]

7. He really has indeed...and I was fixing my post...he also voted after Obama took office with the GOP

to withhold Tarp funds which included the auto bailout money and money that was ultimately lent to GM after the bankruptcy. He has a terrible history with autos and I hope Biden nails him on this.

[NurseJackie]

9. [Bernie] also voted ... with the GOP to withhold Tarp funds ... [including] the auto bailout money

He also voted after Obama took office with the GOP to withhold Tarp funds which included the auto bailout money and money that was ultimately lent to GM after the bankruptcy. He has a terrible history with autos and I hope Biden nails him on this.

I agree. Biden needs to NAIL HIM TO THE WALL on his unforgivable votes.

Bernie has been treated with kid gloves in the past, and that was a mistake. I get the feeling that Joe Biden is going to hit him hard on this. Biden wants this to be a knockout blow to Bernie's campaign... hopefully Bernie will get the message and realize he has ZERO chance of winning the nomination. Hopefully he'll concede and withdraw gracefully.




Joe/Kamala or Biden/Harris 2020!!
Jump on the Biden Bandwagon & abandon the revolution!!

[NCProgressive]

6. The "reality show" aspect of Sanders' campaign is over - it is all serious now

People are thinking of defeating Trump and not of starting a unicorn farm.

[NurseJackie]

8. I believe you're correct.

[dalton99a]

12. +1

[NYMinute]

15. Looking at that crowd, I see people who will be depressed Tuesday night

[NurseJackie]

16. You are correct!