There are 365 delegates available on Tuesday...

[SidDithers]

and all I see from the Bernie stans at DU are thread after thread about Bernie in MI (125 delegates)

Has Bernie abandoned the states representing the other 240 delegates (including Democrats Abroad)?

Does the Bernie campaign not know that winning MI but losing everywhere else puts him further behind Biden?



Sid

[NurseJackie]

1. Bernie Math... or something. All I know is that it doesn't add up.

[George II]

3. Classic! But it's more like Weaver math, remember him?

[relayerbob]

2. Kornacki math on the other hand

Even if Sanders wins all the other states, the gap will be small and Biden's win in MS would net him a gain in delegates.

But, I suspect Sanders won't win all the other states.

[padah513]

6. +1

[George II]

4. Biden's on a path for big or huge wins in MS and MO, small wins in WA and ID, and probably MI.

Even if Biden loses MI, it'll be close so they'll split the 125 almost down the middle.

I can see Biden getting over 200, maybe as high as 250.

[padah513]

5. Steve Kornacki

Filled in for Brian Williams one night last week and he said that if Sanders won all the primaries on Super Tuesday II, but each win was a close one, he would still fall further behind Biden in the delegate count because Biden will sweep Mississippi. Sanders may not hit the threshold there.

[Blue_true]

7. My guess.

Joe picks up most of that 365. He may not have much more than Sanders from that day, I am guessing otherwise though, Sanders may not be viable in Mississippi and likely will get beaten badly in Missouri. I expect Washington State to be close either way. Michigan can run from a big win for Biden to a small win for Biden or Sanders, we really won't know until the voting happens there.

Where Biden breaks this race open and end it for all practical purposes is on the 17th and 24th.

[showblue22]

8. For OPTICS

So he can keep campaigning and make people believe the race is still on.

[NCProgressive]

9. He thinks winning Michigan will give him momentum to go into FL, GA and AZ

[SiliconValley_Dem]

10. I just think they see from internal polling that MI is at risk

And are trying to build the same messaging around MI as Biden and team built around SC.

To your point, their message is filled by the fact that this is not just MI primary but a few states.

Even if Bernie does win MI, I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout—Biden will get some delegates. Then if Biden does REALLY well in Missouri, Mississippi and splits WA, Bernie’s window is narrower.

If Super Tuesday and further sentiment toward consolidating behind 1 candidate plays out, it could be a Biden rout.