Bernie Sanders Won Michigan in 2016. Tuesday's Primary Looks Much Tougher.

[George II]

Four years ago, Mr. Sanders drew support from some voters who didn’t like Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden is poised to do well with black Democrats and college-educated white voters.

DETROIT — Four years ago, Senator Bernie Sanders scored an upset win over Hillary Clinton in the Michigan Democratic primary, reviving his insurgent candidacy one week after his political prospects dimmed because of Super Tuesday losses.

Now Mr. Sanders, of Vermont, finds himself once again urgently in need of a bounce-back victory in Michigan’s presidential primary after another disappointing Super Tuesday, this time against former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

Mr. Sanders has shaken up his schedule to hold three days of events and rallies in Michigan. He has intensified his attacks on Mr. Biden over trade, a major issue in the state; in remarks in Dearborn on Saturday, he recalled joining picket lines to protest “disastrous” trade deals. And his campaign arranged an event in Flint on Saturday night for the explicit purpose of Mr. Sanders making his case to black voters, who have largely favored Mr. Biden so far. The Flint event mostly drew white voters, though, and Mr. Sanders mostly reiterated his stump speech.

As Mr. Biden now attempts to leverage his Super Tuesday success and build momentum, Mr. Sanders may face even longer odds in Michigan than he did in 2016. The state that Mr. Sanders last week called “very, very important” suddenly looks forbidding for him.

Warning, this is a pay site, but you get a few free articles per month:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/us/politics/michigan-primary-biden-sanders.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[dalton99a]

1. Kick

Mr. Biden, despite having a thin operation in Michigan, appears likely to do well with black Democrats and college-educated white voters, two groups that handed him decisive margins in Virginia, North Carolina and several other states on Super Tuesday. And the exit polling and voting trends in some of those states indicate that Mr. Sanders has declined in strength with working-class white voters, who, uneasy with Mrs. Clinton in 2016, delivered him landslide wins across much of central and northern Michigan that year.

Recognizing the stakes here, Mr. Sanders is assailing Mr. Biden for his support of what he called “disastrous trade agreements like Nafta.” And his campaign is airing a commercial in the manufacturing-heavy state that features a former autoworker highlighting the former vice president’s lack of regret for supporting the pact while pointing out that Mr. Sanders has opposed free trade deals.

As he addressed supporters in Dearborn, Mr. Sanders devoted about a third of his stump speech to attacking Mr. Biden, lashing him not only on trade but also over entitlement programs, support for the war in Iraq and a willingness to take donations from wealthy donors.

But recent election trends in Michigan are not encouraging for Mr. Sanders. In 2018, Michigan Democrats rallied behind a number of moderates — most notably Gretchen Whitmer in the governor’s race, and Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin in congressional races — and ended up winning Republican-held seats and loosening the G.O.P.’s grip on the state.

[Thekaspervote]

2. Latest polls... for what they're worth gives Biden an 8 pt lead

[Mr.Bill]

3. Has there been any primary this year (not caucuses)

where Bernie got more votes than he did in 2016?

[LiberalFighter]

6. I didn't do votes but this shows the difference for delegates from 2016.

Iowa -2
NH -6
NV +9
SC +1
AL -1
American Samoa -2
AR -9
CA -1
CO -21 (23 not allocated)
ME -8
MA -16
MN -19
NC -10
OK -8
TN -3
TX +27
UT -15 (8 not allocated)
VT -5
VA -2

[George II]

9. Some were caucuses last time, but he's way down in most of the primaries:

New Hampshire 76,000, was 152,000 down
South Carolina 105,000, was 96,000 up
Alabama 75,000, was 76,000 even
Arkansas 51,000, was 66,000 down
Massachusetts 352,000 was 589,000 down
North Carolina 318,000, was 467,000 down
Oklahoma 77,000, was 174,000 down
Tennessee 120,000, was 120,000 even
Texas 591,000, was 476,000 down
Vermont 80,000, was 116,000 down
Virginia 306,000, was 276,000 up
Utah 60,000, was 61,000 even

[getagrip_already]

4. latest poll biden +7

But that was taken before super tuesday. Nothing added since.

[tishaLA]

5. "The Flint event mostly drew white voters, though" LOL

[Peacetrain]

11. that was almost uncomfortable..

[corbettkroehler]

7. Huge Infrastructure Differences This Time

The Sanders 2020 campaign is better organized in Michigan than in 2016 and Sanders has enjoyed a near clean-sweep of Muslim endorsements. Here are the two most recent:

Link to tweet

Having Rev. Jesse Jackson lead the Sanders rally this afternoon certainly didn't hurt.

[Cha]

8. Who's out Campaigning For Biden today in

Michigan!?

[George II]

10. I think Klobuchar is. See, when you have a full array of high level political allies....

....you can dispatch them all over the place.

Kamala Harris was in Alabama, probably swung over to Mississippi later in the day
Joe Biden was in Jackson Mississippi after being in Missouri yesterday, heading up to Michigan
Amy Klobuchar was in Michigan yesterday, maybe today

An embarrassment of riches!!

I wonder if they'll all meet up on Tuesday night for a victory party?

[Cha]

14. So Good.. Joe needed to be i Mississippi Today!

[Peacetrain]

12. Here is my question.. if Biden wins this Tuesday like he did last Tuesday..

If he takes Michigan in a large way.. I wonder what the discussion will be with his team. The party is coming together but coming together behind Joe Biden.. I am not sure, but I am thinking most previous candidates that have suspended have thrown their support behind Biden..

[brooklynite]

13. Not to worry; he's going to get turn out a whole bunch of new progressive voters....

...so I've been told.