Harry Enten: New polling is "indicative of a primary that is closer to the end than the beginning"

[highplainsdem]

That's paraphrasing this tweet from CNN's Enten:

Link to tweet

The polling this morning is far more indicative of a primary that is closer to the end than the beginning... at least statistically.

See his other recent tweets for comments on the polls.

[RDavisJ1]

1. It's math....

After all the talk about policies and personalities, it's now coming down to one thing: Math.

Bernie Sanders is not going to have a good day on March 10, 2016. In many ways, it's a do or die night for Bernie simply on perception in Michigan. Bernie must win Michigan or his image of being viable in the rust belt will be over. But even if Bernie weeks out a win, delegate wise, he won't do any better than splitting the delegates.

Super Tuesday part 2 is rather low in delegate rich states. So each state is important. Michigan and Washington are the two big prizes and right now, Bernie is under water in each state. But again, this is math.

So where does the math do Sanders in potentially? Super Tuesday part 3.

Next week is huge for delegates with only 4 states. Can Sanders catch up next week? No, he's polling for huge losses. Florida, Ohio, and Arizona are looking bad for Sanders. There is no Illinois poll out, but one has to wonder if Obama helps him in Illinois he could be looking at a shut out night and a ton of delegates amassing for Biden.

[honest.abe]

2. Appears there is a bandwagon effect happening..

which is clearly what happens in the the last stages of a primary.