538 has frozen their forecasts until after the results tonight. The latest:

[George II]

Biden 99 in 100, >99% (.991 in 1)
No One 1 in 100, 0.8% (1 in 125)
Sanders<1 in 100, 0.1% (1 in 1,000)
Gabbard <1 in 100, 0% (0 in 1,000)

Let's see what it is tomorrow or Thursday.

[dawg day]

1. That seems a little extreme.

After 2016, I think almost anything is possible with some areas of the country.

[Demsrule86]

4. It is delegate math...after today (and upcoming primaries are even worse) Biden will have a

delegate count that Sander can't catch up with...we have proportional primaries thus he needs big wins...even a win that is close won't help Sanders as Biden and Sanders split the delegates. There are no opportunities for big wins for Sanders in later primaries.

[Sloumeau]

5. Here's why 538's forecast is so extreme against Bernie:

The forecast is really forecasting the odds of people like Biden and Bernie getting a majority of delegates before the Democratic National Convention. In order for Bernie to get a majority before the Convention, he needs to get more delegates than Biden. In order to do that, he needs some really big wins in some decently sized states. The problem with that is that Bernie is not polling much better than Biden in any state of any decent size. In Michigan, for example, he's way behind Biden. In Washington, he's neck and neck with Biden.

If Bernie has no big states with big wins, he simply cannot catch up to Biden, and if he cannot catch up to Biden, he cannot win a majority of delegates. It's just statistics.

[George II]

16. Plus, Sanders was counting on the delegates being split with two or three other candidates....

so he could get a plurality going into the Convention. That's not going to happen anymore, especially with three of the other candidates that have delegates endorsing Biden.

[Happy Hoosier]

12. Well, it's a model fed by data...

... not intuition. That's not to say models are always right. They CAN be wrong. But history shows that data driven models are right a lot more than they are wrong.

[hlthe2b]

2. So, Gabbard's on the move, then..

[empedocles]

3. .

[Sloumeau]

6. ROFL

[Bucky]

20. She's the only women in the race, the POC in the race...

she's bound to win! Why don't the Dems make her the keynote speaker?!?!?!!!!!11!! It's a CoSpIraCeeeEEe.

[marble falls]

7. Almost an onion poll and illustration.

[Dennis Donovan]

8. Agreed - this one's better:

[marble falls]

9. In all my years I've never seen a primary season flip so clearly and quickly. Pleased ...

but utterly shocked.

[Dennis Donovan]

11. Days before SC, they were "post-mordeming" the Biden campaign...

"Where did it go wrong?" kind of thing. At the time, I was with them and poised to switch to Warren.

Then the miracle of SC happened - he was expected to win, but no one thought it would be the blowout it was. So much so it put the "mo" back into Joe.

Shocked me as well!

[marble falls]

14. I hadn't declared by then and I thought Biden might be out of it ny now. It gives me more ...

confidence about taking the Senate.

[Bucky]

18. It's because of stupidity. Mathematical stupidity.

Seriously, Sanders only broke 30% in one state. All the media commentators are too stupid to know the difference between "a first place finish" in a contest and "winning a state." The liberal votes were split 4-5 ways, so the radical wing of the party got an inflated sense of their own power. It was all inevitable.

But then again, the Bernie-panic in general is overhyped. He should come with a trigger warning for millionaires. Look at the effect he had on poor Chris Matthews.

[marble falls]

21. Bernie with a Trigger Warning. Like it.

[George II]

19. This is pretty much the way it was before Nevada voted. What's shocking is that it flipped...

...extremely to Sanders after Nevada so quickly. But after South Carolina voted it flipped right back to where it was on February 21.

[Happy Hoosier]

23. I was shocked at first too, but in hindsight....

It was kind of clear Sanders was tickling his ceiling, and with Sanders setting himself against "da establish," it's actually not surprising at all that when consolidation happened, it skewed heavily towards Biden. The only real surprise to me was that it happened all at once, which might just be an indicator of how much Democratic leaders oppose a Sanders nomination.

[Indykatie]

27. The Black Folks in SC Probably Didn't Like Biden Being Counted Out Before Any AAs Had Voted

Dems need to revamp the primary calendar. It's crap that NH and IA has such out sized influence and can make or break campaigns before the base of the party even gets to vote. Pundits were quick to write Biden's obituary after poor showing in IA and NH but I don't remember anyone calling for Warren, Pete or Amy to leave the race because they did so poorly in SC.

[NurseJackie]

10. Bernie's Chances: one in a THOUSAND??? Wow!

That's probably the same odds I'd give on the likelihood that he'd go ahead and concede gracefully whenever he has no mathematical hope of being our party's nominee.

Sadly, there will be many weeks that COULD be spent with the healing and unification process. But, I fear the Bernie will fritter-away many golden opportunities for the sake of a fantasy "revolution" that will never materialize. Meanwhile the REAL advances that could be happening are squandered when he allows his fans' disappointment to matisticize into resentment, and feelings of being victimized, and a desire for revenge and punishment.

[njhoneybadger]

15. When does Bernie realize he's doing what tRump and Putin want.

[Bucky]

22. That's a little overblown

Bernie would not be friendly to Putin. His complaints against the Dem establishment are legitimate points of debate. He may not be the best candidate to carry that message, but his ideas are actually quite popular. I would hope that President Biden takes his ideas seriously.

[honest.abe]

17. Sanders 0.1%

That's less likely than a person being born with 11 fingers or toes which is 1 in 500 (0.5%).

Odds of being born with 11 fingers or toes — 1 in 500
This means that if you follow 1,000 people on Twitter, one or two of them were probably born with an extra appendage — which is medically known as polydactyly.

https://www.sheknows.com/living/articles/1023453/what-are-the-odds-21-statistics-that-will-surprise-you/

[Amishman]

24. Gabbard Surging! only 0.1% out of second place on 538!!11111 (joke)

[George II]

25. As I pointed out last night, Sanders is only 0.1% ahead of Gabbard. BTW....

...."No one" is in second place!

[Lulu KC]

26. If nothing else

it would be nice to end debate season.
Joe and crew need to be working on strategies for outsmarting Putin. I'm sure they are.
(I love the way we all say things here like someone is calling and asking for our advice. It's kind of fun.)