****ARIZONA POLL**** Biden 50% Trump 42% Biden 51% Sanders 34%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://st1.uvnimg.com/07/2e/d0d9a91c4000996d8bcc95b85319/univisionpolling-march-arizona.pdf

[Mike 03]

1. Excellent news.

This is not only good for Joe and our country but for Captain Mark Kelly, hopefully our next Senator from Arizona!

[Jarqui]

2. I think it is time to pull the fork out of Bernie ... nt

[tman]

3. I've had a 'feeling' Biden will flip a red state.

While possibly losing much prized WI.

I was thinking AZ, GA or purple NC. That's enough to win.

[rockfordfile]

7. Nope

[AZ8theist]

4. I early voted for Joe in the primary..

And donated (till it hurt!!) for Mark for the general.

McSally is an ODIOUS, DOTURD BOOT LICKER.
Not a single redeeming quality. A complete piece of shit.

GO MARK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[honest.abe]

5. AZ would be a huge pickup.

That would offset a possible loss in Wisconsin.

[Yavin4]

14. TX

Dare to dream. It could happen. Dare to dream.

[GOFM]

19. I don't think it's that crazy

The latest RCP average is only Trump +2.6

[Cha]

6. KR!!

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Trump's approval is all over the map in Arizona

I've seen the net anywhere from +1 to -11. This poll has -8, which is similar to another recent one at -6.

I think the truth would be closer to even among actual voters. The 2018 Arizona exit poll had Trump 50% approve 48% disapprove. His national approval number was lower then than today.

We're not leading by 8 points in Arizona. I don't mind dismissing any poll that makes no sense based on the ideological split.

However, the trend is more positive in our direction in Arizona than any other state. Texas and Georgia are still pipe dreams in the short term. Unless the conservative number drops to 38% range in 2020 I'll be surprised if we carry Arizona. But it is certainly possible, given the drop to 41% in 2016 then the remarkable drop to 40% in 2018, even though the liberal percentage plunged from 27% in 2016 to 22% in 2018.

Nobody really looks at that ideological split except myself and a few of my close friends from Las Vegas. I never really see any discussion on major political sites. Arizona is the strangest state I have ever reviewed along these lines. In 2016 it was the only state to simultaneously report more liberals and conservatives than the national average. I have never seen that in following the category since 1992. Then to plunge from 27% to 22% liberals in 2018 should have meant an uptick in conservatives to 42% range, following the trend of the rest of the nation given the older, more white and more conservative trend of midterms in relation to presidential years.

Since Arizona instead dropped to 40% conservatives in 2018 that gives me hope that our gains in that state are accelerating beyond what they were in Virginia, Nevada and Colorado. Those states all moved in predictable and mostly similar timetable. If we can push Arizona this time maybe we can flip it one cycle before my expectation, which was 2024. Arizona seniors 65+ actually voted for Sinema 50-48 according to exit polls. I remember being shocked at that number. For reference, Florida seniors buried Bill Nelson 57-43. Beto similarly lost seniors 58-42.

I'm normally not a huge believer in turnout. But it needs to be emphasized in Arizona. I'd say we are probably behind there, similar to Nevada behind before Harry Reid fortified the operation. Arizona is not as easy to rectify as Nevada (Clark County) but there are limited and easily identifiable areas in Arizona that can receive the high percentage of attention.

[rockfordfile]

9. Trump will lose a lot of States

[BidenBacker]

12. Real good post, AD

Take heart in this...

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

Pretty close to but not quite a 1/3 split down the line. I would bet a decent chunk of change Biden will pull in more than enough Indies to put him over the top.

The electoral map of the Southwest is gonna look real nice when it's all blue and Arizona no longer sticks out like a sore red thumb.

[Tarheel_Dem]

10. K&R

[BidenBacker]

11. What

did you guys think I've been lying to you about Arizona?

If Joe loses AZ, I'll eat a MAGA cap. And if Kelly also loses to McSally I'll sprinkle it with coronavirus first.

[Vivienne235729]

13. Also, trump has pissed off and trampled on McCain's memories & taken shots at a dead man.

McCain supporters haven't forgotten. The deep pockets behind John McCain have not forgotten. They are NOT coalescing behind McTrump. I can't remember where I read that, but I know it was in the past 8 mo. That's partly why she has had to stick her head that far up trump's ass.

[BidenBacker]

15. Great point, Viv

That alone is likely good for another 5-10% of the Indies switching to Biden.

Let's remember what 2016 looked like...

Trump - 48.1%
Clinton - 44.6%

We're talking a mere 1.75% swing to tie it up. Trump is less popular out here now than he was then and Biden has higher favorables than Hillary did. And with Kelly running for Senator he may help pull in some votes for Biden as much as Joe does for Mark.

I take it back...if Joe can't swing a lousy 2% then I'll eat TWO MAGA caps.

[Vivienne235729]

16. (Knocking on wood) I think you're safe from having to eat MAGA hats. Lol

AZ is turning bluer by the day. Literally. Going by 2017 #'s (and it should be even higher now) we should be getting ~5,000 Californians a month. So by August, we should have an additional 40,000 new folks from CA this year alone. THIS is why we are going blue!!!

[BidenBacker]

17. About them MAGA caps

If God forbid I DO have to eat a couple you're gonna have to buy 'em for me after the week the stock market just had.

I knew there was some high-tech migration spilling over from CA but 5000 a month is a lot more than I woulda guessed. Odds are pretty good the vast majority of them are Democrats at best and Independents at worst.

And you can add a few Republican ranchers to the list of Trump defectors come November...

https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-arizona-border-trump-ranchers-20190310-story.html

Will be interesting to see how the very high Hispanic population here votes on Tuesday compared to Nevada which I believe went heavily for Bernie. Arizona has the 4th highest percentage (31.4%) in the country...more than Nevada and behind only NM, TX & CA. A lot has happened since then so I expect a sizable shift to Joe from Bernie compared to what we saw in NV, especially since it was some kinda weird caucus/primary hybrid.

[Vivienne235729]

18. Oh no. It's definitely crazy times. I hope the market springs back pretty quickly

There's a lot going on. I'm no economic expert but aside from the Corona volatility, the Saudis just dumped a ton of oil onto the market. Nor sure if this is true, but I heard it is bc the want to get rid of the Russians, their competitor. That accounted for the initial 7% free fall. I sure hope or gets better. Hang in there.

The Hispanic/latino coalition in AZ is working hard to get the vote out. Between the latino vote and the growing number of people from CA, we stand in a great place to go blue if everyone would just vote. https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2019/11/14/advocates-aim-to-energize-latino-voters-as-their-clout-at-polls-grows/

[BidenBacker]

20. Was just kidding about losing my ass in the stock market

I've been expecting Trump to trash it for a long time so I have no exposure at this time.

Regarding the brewing oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, sure looks like these two guys have had a bit of a falling out since this was taken!

[Vivienne235729]

21. Oh that's good you covered your butt. I'm not tethered to the stock market. Thank god.

The stock market is not my meat and potatoes for retirement. It'll be more of an appetizer and dessert.