More Americans trust Joe to handle COVID-19 crisis.

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

?s=21

[gibraltar72]

1. Let it simmer.

[The Magistrate]

2. That Gap Will Only Grow Wider, Sir

"From Bernie’s perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they don’t want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."





"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."

[Thekaspervote]

3. Indeed it will

[Cha]

4. One has to wonder about those 36%.

What happened to the other %?

[BidenBacker]

5. Well folks, this grim stat sure as hell didn't take very long to reach

Yesterday I posted we had just topped the total number of deaths that occurred at Pearl Harbor and that we would probably blow through 9/11 in a day or two. Sadly, looks like it was the former...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Since I seem to have run outta sneak attacks and terrorist attacks to put things into perspective, I may have to resort to terrible Civil War battles that we all have heard about. Next stop, the 8th and 7th most deadly battles...Second Battle of Bull Run, ie, Second Manassas (3205 deaths) and the Battle of Chancellorsville (3271). Probably tomorrow at the rate we're going.

Don't know what I'm gonna use for benchmarks once Dereliction of Duty Donnie blows through the worst Civil War battle of all...Gettysburg. Trump's Battle of Total Bullshit gonna top 'em all before too long. One thing's for sure, based on what Fauci and other medical experts are now saying I'm gonna have to go through history and pull out some 6-digit disasters before this Trump Tragedy has run its course.

Vote Biden. Beat Trump. Or Die.

https://s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20190910&t=2&i=1428400194&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2019-09-10T172505Z_12868_MRPGM1E7521B1J01_RTRMADP_0_BINLADEN

[RandySF]

7. And no musical guests?

[BidenBacker]

8. Here's what I was gonna post before he deleted

The Case for: Joe Biden

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/29/21078640/joe-biden-beat-trump-win-2020-election-primaries

How Democrats won in 2018
Two important storylines about the Democratic Party emerged from the 2018 election.

The first is the rise of the far left, best symbolized by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s upset victory against longtime Democrat Joe Crowley in New York. Ocasio-Cortez instantly became a leading voice in the new progressive wing of the party.

The second storyline to emerge has gotten far less attention but explains how Democrats actually won. While Ocasio-Cortez represents an important new force in the party, her win over a fellow Democrat didn’t change the party makeup of the House. That bragging right goes to a crop of moderate Democrats who ran careful, pragmatic campaigns. They won on tangible policy ideas, like preserving the Affordable Care Act’s provision on preexisting conditions. They weren’t calling for a revolution, so much as a return to stability.

An analysis by Alan I. Abramowitz at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia found that candidates in the 2018 midterms who supported Medicare-for-all performed worse than those who did not.

It’s true that the progressive left helped inspire enthusiasm, including a surge of new voters and young voters. Latinx voters made up a larger vote share in 2018 than in previous elections.

But as Yair Ghitza of the Democratic data firm Catalist estimates, about 89 percent of the party’s improved vote margin is attributable to swing voting — not higher turnout by committed Democrats. “A big piece of Democratic victory was due to 2016 Trump voters turning around and voting for Democrats in 2018.”

Ghitza also found that even though many of the Democratic wins were in suburban districts, “rural areas largely moved in a Democratic direction, often by even larger margins than the suburbs.”

To carry these districts and win the Electoral College, the Democratic nominee must appeal to a broad swath of voters — including Trump voters. Biden stumped in these districts in 2018 and candidates welcomed his help, a sign that he’s the strongest choice to do it in 2020.

Don't know about you guys but I want that SOB McConnell gone damn near as much as I do Trump. Sanders ain't got no swing. Some of these Bernie folks just can't seem to get it.

[BidenBacker]

9. Meanwhile...

as Joe was campaigning for winning Democrats in 2018 and helping them to take back the House...

Bernie and his army are losing 2018

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/08/bernie-sanders-endorsements-2018-elections-767403

Bernie Sanders is sputtering.

Two years after his defeat in the 2016 presidential primary, the Vermont senator has amassed a growing string of losses in races in which he has intervened. Beginning last year, Sanders-backed candidates faltered in an Omaha mayoral race and a nationally watched House race in Montana.

Then came Rep. Tom Perriello’s loss in Virginia’s gubernatorial primary, and in June, the drubbing in Iowa of Pete D’Alessandro, a top adviser to Sanders during his 2016 Iowa caucus campaign. Cathy Glasson, endorsed by Sanders’ successor group, Our Revolution, fell short in Iowa’s gubernatorial primary, as did Peter Jacob and Jim Keady in two New Jersey House races. Dennis Kucinich lost in Ohio.

Tuesday night brought Sanders and his army their latest blow, with a pair of high-profile losses in Michigan and Kansas.

Emerging from the 2016 election, Sanders’ political prospects appeared to hinge on his ability to sway the Democratic Party’s left flank. And Sanders’ campaign is widely considered instrumental in a recent surge in small donors and young people registering to vote, and in the elevation of issues such as student debt and universal health care.

Yet in high-profile races across the country, Sanders-backed candidates continue to falter at the ballot box. The losses suggest organizational weaknesses that could hamper Sanders if he runs for president again in 2020 — even as a diaspora of Sanders-aligned candidates continues to test his appeal in the midterm elections.

Yeah, let's nominate THIS guy. Or at least buy him a better pair of glasses so he can read the writing on the wall.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. "about 89 percent of the party's improved vote margin is attributable to swing voting"

Nobody should be surprised at that. Rachel Bitecofer has no idea what she has doing. Her rise is the most asinine development I can remember. It is beyond hilarious that some people quote her instead of Nate Silver.

Ever since I have been on this site there has been an absurdly high belief in turnout, as opposed to preference. Elections are won based on persuasion.

[BidenBacker]

11. My gut says

there will be a few different factors that play a role in the election result. Just like in plane crashes there are almost always numerous factors that lead up to one, some major and some minor. It's almost never just one single factor that determined the fatal accident. These are only a few...

#1 - Democratic turnout will be higher than Republican turnout
#2 - Dems will vote for Biden in higher percentages than Pubs vote for Trump
#3 - Indies will swing in favor of Biden

Thinking #1 will have a small to intermediate impact. So far many of the Dem primaries have shown a sizeable increase in turnout compared to 2016...not for Bernie but for the entire field as a whole. #2 will likely be a small effect...surveys and studies I've looked over typically show 90-95% of Dems will vote for Biden compared to Republicans voting for their beloved Fuhrer at rates in only the high 80s. These first 2 factors will likely not be overwhelming but those two alone may help Democrats overcome any numerical disadvantage they have in some purple swing states like here in Arizona, and every little bit only helps. Forget the "enthusiasm" nonsense...hate is often a far better motivator than love.

Think we both agree that #3 is probably the potentially biggest and most crucial factor of all. Since Independents make up roughly 40% of the entire national electorate small swings in that group can make the difference between losing a close election or winning in a relative electoral landslide...something akin to what Obama did in 2008 (365-173) vs McCain and to a lesser degree in 2012 (332-206) vs Romney.

Lots of unknowns going forward but my hunch is the economy will be in terrible shape throughout the summer and into the autumn with more multi-trillion dollar bailouts required to keep it from collapsing. We are in all likelihood already in a recession and are just waiting for the economists to catch up and confirm. IMO we are a lot closer to another depression than many folks believe or are willing to contemplate. And God only knows where we will be with this damn virus that Trump called a hoax for 2 months rather than get the country better prepared to do battle with.

Methinks your "smart money" buddies in Vegas are gonna lose their bets. Play around with this a little and lemme know what you come up with...

https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/road-to-270-2020/

Now if you will excuse me I gotta don my HAZMAT suit and go do a little food shopping this morning!

[BidenBacker]

12. The "Hoax" That Hurts

White House projects 100,000 to 240,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths; Trump says next 2 weeks will be ‘very painful’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-lays-out-30-day-coronavirus-plan-says-next-2-weeks-will-be-very-painful-2020-03-31

"Painful" to who, Drumpf...you and your reelection chances? Because that's all you really care about.

Just passed the Battle of the Wilderness and about to blow through the 3rd deadliest battle in Civil War history...Chickamauga where 3969 Americans fell.

Won't be very long before we have to go from individual battles to entire wars.