Democratic Voters' Second Choices Show How Fluid The 2020 Primary Race Is

[ehrnst]

The first lesson from this table is that early primary polls are, in large part, driven by name recognition. At this stage, voters may have only heard of a few of these candidates, and chances are two of them are Biden and Sanders (who are the two best-known candidates in the field). So of course they are a respondent’s second or third choice (if not his first).

The second lesson is that “lane” analysis, or the idea that candidates are competing for support within different wings of the party (e.g., the “establishment lane”), can be overrated. This isn’t meant as shade — FiveThirtyEight has classified its own wings of the party, too. It’s just important to remember that this kind of analysis has its flaws and limitations, particularly this early out. Other than both being white men, Biden and Sanders are about as different as Democrats in 2020 can get: one is establishment to the bone with a less-than-purely liberal record, while the other is a grassroots-backed insurgent who identifies as a socialist. And yet more than a quarter of Biden supporters say Sanders is their second choice, and more than a quarter of Sanders supporters say Biden is their second choice.

Now, don’t get me wrong — there is some interesting variation in the second-choice vote shares that jibes with sorting candidates into “lanes.” To take one example, Sanders ranks as the preferred second choice of supporters of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, whose progressive economic message dovetails with Sanders’s. To take another, Sen. Kamala Harris ranks higher among Sen. Cory Booker supporters than she does among any other candidate’s supporters, and Booker likewise does better among Harris supporters than he does any other bloc. That supports the idea that Harris and Booker, as the race’s two most prominent African-American candidates, might appeal to similar bases.

But it’s less variation than I think most people would expect, and there are clearly large chunks of voters who are perfectly willing to vote for a candidate in a different lane. As political scientist David A. Hopkins of Boston College recently pointed out, voters simply aren’t so well informed or calculating to split candidates cleanly into such factions. What’s more, lanes haven’t accurately predicted how previous presidential nominating contests would shake out after candidates began withdrawing and support started shuffling around. Current events and the shifting media spotlight after candidates win or outperform expectations in early primary states can also shake up fields, and candidates’ own marketing efforts can often succeed at winning over voters that may not be part of their “natural constituency.” Voters may use ideology and identity as a guide, but “lanes” are hardly an ironclad theory. Frankly, primaries are unpredictable — maybe we should all just get more comfortable with that idea.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-there-really-lanes-in-the-2020-democratic-primary/

[Wounded Bear]

1. Interesting breakdown...

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

2. Well, well, well, isn't that interesting... need I say more?!

Oh okay... but Bernie's not a Democrat... just #2 in the heart of every other candidate's supporters.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!!!
Imagine the possibilities!!!

[CrossingTheRubicon]

3. BS isn't second in the heart of "every other candidate's supporters." LOL.

We can read.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. Three Seconds for Sanders plus one tie for second

It does seem to indicate that Bernie has broader appeal outside of his own core backers than some folks seem to have believed.

[RobertDevereaux]

6. As opposed to a DINO...

Bernie's a DIABN, which is to say, a Democrat In All But Name.

And he's an Eleanor and Franklin Democrat, the best kind there is!

[Amimnoch]

7. No he is not.

At all.

[ehrnst]

10. I disagree. (nt)

[Hortensis]

4. Good for a laugh. The thought of Sanders as VP

would be strictly the stuff of sleeping nightmares for all of them, so hope no one even jokes about it around them.

Sanders' folk, don't be offended. You know he's no team player. He's been doing +1 to the Democratic caucus his entire career, but couldn't hack being #2 ever, for anyone.

[Mr. Smith]

8. The poll wasn't about VP picks, but about who you support after your favorite.

At this point, Bernie Sanders does quite well, but as the OP pointed out, it could be name recognition.

[Hortensis]

9. :) Anyway, 614 days from now will be entirely different.

[Bucky]

11. I just hope the country's still here in 614 days

[Hortensis]

12. Oh, we'll be here with or without

our current power of the vote. If we were to lose that, though, for sure we wouldn’t be talking about it on line.