Let's talk about Trump insiders, potential corruption, and national security.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump insiders, potential corruption, and national security.

Over the last few days, a lot of conversation has centered around the potential use of inside information by Trump insiders for personal gain and that seems to be where most of the conversation ends, but that isn't actually the biggest problem. So here's one of the questions.

Belle, I'm wondering why you aren't covering the bets that are being made about major world events that appear to be coming from Trump insiders. That kind of corruption is something that seems like it would be in your field, especially since a lot of it has to do with the military or financial markets.

Okay, so if you've missed this, there's a trend happening where new accounts are created on online prediction markets that allow users to predict the outcome of world events. Then these accounts make large bets on events that some are saying appear to be based on inside knowledge. As an example, around March 21st, eight accounts were created and they bet about 70 grand on a ceasefire. If the US and Iran reach a ceasefire by March 31, they'll stand to make more than $800,000.

Another account was created shortly before the US attacked Iran in February. It won money by correctly predicting those strikes. Now it has made the ceasefire by March 31 bet as well. It is bet on nothing else. That sounds like the kind of bet someone might make if they heard Trump say something like, "I want this over with by the end of the month."

These aren't the only bets that were made like this. Ben York, who's kind of an expert on this type of thing, said that the trend shows signs of people with inside knowledge. He said, "Typically, when you see wallet splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it's one of two scenarios. Either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact or insider trading.

So why haven't I talked about this corruption allegations against Trump insiders? Okay, breaking news. Sand found on beach. I think at this point most Americans kind of expect Trump linked insiders to be personally enriching themselves through their position.

Why am I talking about it now? Because it's now being reported on in major outlets and so now it's real to opposition nations.

Let's be clear, this is something that could get American troops killed. If opposition intelligence identifies insider accounts and pays attention to them, they can infer US battle plans almost as easily as if the insider just called them and told them. Trump linked insiders alleged to have helped an opposition nation or done something so stupid they let secrets out. Breaking news. Bottle cap found on beach.

It'll be American forces that step on that bottle cap of incompetence or greed as they stroll along the beach of corruption and ineptitude. I just hope it isn't on the beaches of Kharg Island.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

[sop]

1. Trump family motto: "Start 'em out young"