Let's talk about major Iran developments.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about major Iran developments.

Okay, so we have a lot of news. There's so much that some key developments are likely to be lost in the news cycle because there's a lot of sound bites that will get played and it's likely to cause a lot of context to be lost.

Trump changed his position again. Rubio said there won't be any ground troops even as thousands are being deployed and there's lots of things that will be easy gotcha moments that can be leaned into for viral content.

We're a month into the war and past the original 4-week time frame and this is how things are going:

Iran launched missiles at Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, and maybe the UAE. But that damage may have been caused by falling debris from an intercepted missile. A strike at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia left at least 10 American service members wounded, 12 by some reporting, along with damaging some aircraft.

Gulf countries are also warning against increased activity from Iran backed non-state actors. It appears the leashes in Tehran have been dropped. The Houthis in Yemen reportedly launched a missile at Israel. If they were to truly enter the war and start disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, we're in for another huge economic shock. It's important to know that the Houthis now have some domestic missile production capability, so they aren't as reliant on Iran for support as they once were.

Israel destroyed bridges that cut off southern Lebanon. That appears to be setting the stage for a larger fight. They're also promising to expand strikes in Iran, which is likely giving Trump world heartburn as they're not even getting unified support for Trump's war at the CPAC convention.

Trump is looking for a way to wind down the war while not admitting his mistake. Despite Trump's assurances that the war is won, these developments are signals of a conflict that could widen quickly. Trump seemed to half acknowledge his loss of control and is now saying the war is not finished and that the US had thousands of more targets to hit.

Trump also lashed out at NATO again for not jumping in and joining the elective war he started that he didn't even have the courtesy to discuss with them beforehand. Reminder, NATO is a defensive pact. It's not a treaty that demands allies jump into wars that are elective and have nothing to do with the alliance.

Trump is calling the Strait of Hormuz the Strait of Trump. Meanwhile, here in the real world, Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait and is really solidifying its toll system. There are currently about 20,000 sailors stranded because of the closure. Another issue that is going to sprout soon is the fact that it's planting season and the blockage of the Strait is cutting off fertilizer supply.

It's growing less and less likely that Trump finds an off-ramp that doesn't acknowledge his mistake. So, Congress may need to reel this in before mission creep truly sets in and this escalates to a point where there's no way out.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. The point of no return may have already been breached

Getting more than several countries, many factions, all the economic interests back to equilibrium will prove quite difficult. Large wars end when all parties are dissipated - in manpower, resources, finances. The citizenry becomes just plain tired of death and the taxes to pay for the war.