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Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin's Journal
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin's Journal
March 1, 2019

Democratic Voters' Second Choices Show How Fluid The 2020 Primary Race Is

If I had to pick one word to describe the Democratic presidential primary, it would be “fluid.” The field of candidates is sprawling, and almost a year remains before the first nominating contest. In primaries, voters are more prone to changing their minds than they are in general elections, so Democratic voters’ preferences will likely change several times between now and next spring.

It can therefore be useful in early polls to know not only which candidate is a voter’s first choice, but also who her backup is. In its weekly tracking poll of the 2020 Democratic presidential field, the pollster Morning Consult has been asking voters just that. And while the results might not be too surprising — former Vice President Joe Biden or Sen. Bernie Sanders are consistently voters’ second choices, just like they are voters’ first choices in almost every other national poll — they do highlight the limitations in how the media (including FiveThirtyEight) analyzes presidential primaries. Namely, the blocs/corners/lanes/circles we try to fit candidates and voters into are a lot messier in real life than we sometimes imagine.


SECOND CHOICE Sanders (24%) Biden (26%) Biden (19%) Sanders (22%) Biden (20%)
SECOND CHOICE Harris (11%) Warren (16%) Warren (13%) Biden (18%) Sanders (18%)
SECOND CHOICE Warren (10%) O’Rourke (6%) Sanders (11%) Harris (13%) Harris (13%)

The first lesson from this table is that early primary polls are, in large part, driven by name recognition. At this stage, voters may have only heard of a few of these candidates, and chances are two of them are Biden and Sanders (who are the two best-known candidates in the field). So of course they are a respondent’s second or third choice (if not his first).

The second lesson is that “lane” analysis, or the idea that candidates are competing for support within different wings of the party (e.g., the “establishment lane”), can be overrated. This isn’t meant as shade — FiveThirtyEight has classified its own wings of the party, too. It’s just important to remember that this kind of analysis has its flaws and limitations, particularly this early out. Other than both being white men, Biden and Sanders are about as different as Democrats in 2020 can get: one is establishment to the bone with a less-than-purely liberal record, while the other is a grassroots-backed insurgent who identifies as a socialist. And yet more than a quarter of Biden supporters say Sanders is their second choice, and more than a quarter of Sanders supporters say Biden is their second choice.


The numbers I show were copied from morning consultant poll not the 538 article. There seems to be a slight discrepancy is the numbers.


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