September 29, 2023

Remembering Dianne Feinstein

...before the Kavanaugh hearing.



Bo Erickson CBS @BoKnowsNews 4h
This is how I will remember Sen. Feinstein: I snapped this pic in Sept. 2018 in the middle of Kavanaugh’s SCOTUS confirmation hearings. Sen. Murkowski (right) was weighing her support, and…Feinstein moved in.

A few days later, Murkowski opposed the nomination (Only GOP Senator Voting Against Kavanaugh). @cbsnews

September 25, 2023

Hesitance from Senate Dem leaders to condem or call for Menendez to resign is understandable

...he hasn't been convicted of anything, and press accounts don't equal evidence or proof of guilt.

Look, Menendez could beat these charges. He hired attorney Abbe Lowell on Friday who's also representing Hunter Biden.

Stanley M. Brand, was one of four experts invited to testify before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on the Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties on March 11 about the constitutional framework for Congress’ ability to uphold standards of member conduct. Brand’s testimony discussed the limits of the constitutional power of the House to expel and punish its members for misconduct and discussed several landmark Supreme Court cases interpreting that power.

BRAND:

As an old pal once told me, “even a thin pancake has two sides.”

Reading the criminal indictment in a case for the first time often produces a startled reaction to the government’s case. But as my over 40 years of experience defending public corruption cases and teaching criminal law have taught me, there are usually issues presented by an indictment that can be challenged by the defense.

First, while the indictment charges a conspiracy to commit bribery, it does not charge the substantive crime of bribery itself. This may suggest that the government lacks what it believes is direct evidence of a quid pro quo – “this for that” – between Menendez and the alleged bribers.

...the government must prove the defendants’ intent to carry out a corrupt agreement beyond a reasonable doubt – and juries sometimes want to see more than innuendo before convicting.

____The alleged failure of Menendez to list gifts, as required, on his Senate financial disclosure forms will be cited by prosecutors as evidence of “consciousness of guilt” – an attempt to conceal the transactions.

However, under a recent Supreme Court case involving former Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia for similar crimes, the definition of “official acts” under the bribery statute has been narrowly defined to mean only formal decisions or proceedings. That definition does not include less-formal actions like those performed by Menendez, such as meetings with Egyptian military officials.

The Supreme Court rejected an interpretation of official acts that included arranging meetings with state officials and hosting events at the governor’s mansion, or promoting a private businessman’s products at such events.

When it comes time for the judge to instruct the jury at the end of the trial, Menendez may well be able to argue that much of what he did in fact did not constitute “official acts” and therefore are not illegal under the bribery statute.

read more: https://news.yahoo.com/menendez-indictment-looks-bad-defenses-182450408.html

September 25, 2023

Immigrants are rescuing a worker-starved U.S. economy

Axios:

As the U.S. continues to struggle with a historically-tight labor market, immigrants are coming to the rescue of desperate employers — while also creating new jobs themselves.

By the numbers: Between the pre-pandemic month of January 2020 and July 2023, the immigrant labor force grew by 9.5%. That compares to a tiny 1.5% growth rate among the native-born.

Immigration: The rate at which the U.S. is giving out visas — both temporary work visas and permanent green cards — has risen by about 335,000 workers per year over the past 12 months, to a level near record highs. That's partly because the government has successfully begun to clear the backlog of more than 500,000 visa applications that built up over the course of the pandemic.

Participation: More of those immigrants are working. The foreign-born labor force participation rate has jumped by 2.3 percentage points to 67% over the past two years. By contrast, the native-born rate has risen by a meagre 0.4 points, to 62.2%.

Demographics: The great retirement of the Boomer generation is taking place mainly among the native-born — most immigrant workers aren't yet facing retirement. As a result, millions of new native-born workers need to enter the workforce every year just to keep the total native-born labor force constant, let alone growing.

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/29/us-economy-immigration-labor


...between July 2020 and July 2021, the first full year of the pandemic, U.S. population growth fell to a historic low of 0.16%.

Even as the American economy has slowed, labor shortages still abound in sectors like hospitality, lodging and social assistance. As hundreds of thousands of refugees, notably from Ukraine, have come into the country in the last two years, they’ve filled openings at restaurants, hotels, retail stores and nursing homes. Others with university degrees and stronger English have found better-paying jobs, in accounting, nursing and other fields.

It’s good for business, too. Companies that hire refugees have found them to be loyal, and consumers tend to look favorably upon products and brands that make a positive impact on refugees, according to a survey by New York University and the Tent Partnership for Refugees.

The world’s largest economies, including Germany, Japan and South Korea, are vying to attract more immigrant workers. They have good reason: As people age and die, they aren’t being replaced due to declining birthrates. That means a shrinking labor force, which means fewer hands and minds to produce, pay taxes and support the bulging numbers of retirees.

The U.S., by comparison, has for many years enjoyed stronger population and labor force growth compared to most other advanced economies, in large part due to steady inflows of international migrants, most of whom come to work and tend to be younger. But between July 2020 and July 2021, the first full year of the pandemic, U.S. population growth fell to a historic low of 0.16%.

Stronger immigration since then led to faster growth in the nation’s population, or 0.38% between 2021 and 2022. “It’s a welcome uptick,” said demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution, but that may not be enough.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2023-07-07/what-immigration-means-for-u-s-population-and-economic-growth-essential-politics

Immigration-Driven Labor Supply Sustains Job Growth as Labor Market Cools
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/us-public-finance/immigration-driven-labor-supply-sustains-job-growth-as-labor-market-cools-2024-job-losses-expected-08-09-2023

September 24, 2023

'Based on what you know' is this a fair polling question about impeachment?

emptywheel @emptywheel 7h
Here are the impeachment questions in that poll everyone is talking about.

The poll literally MAKES UP a false claim abt what impeachment is about. The impeachment is about trying to find evidence that business deals that have not been shown to be illegal had some tie to Biden.



...and this question neglecting to mention McCarthy's impeachment is an unprecedented inquiry held without evidence of any wrongdoing by Pres. Biden.



emptywheel @emptywheel 7h
But the comparison with Trump and Clinton is instructive. Because of media incompetence, there's more support for impeaching Biden BECAUSE there is no evidence than there was for Trump, w/abundant evidence.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/0cc7a4b2-8e80-46f3-9c78-3ff36f7a08ee.pdf

September 20, 2023

Watching NBC's Ken Dilanian ignore what Garland said about Weiss' authority

...Merrick Garland said repeatedly in this hearing that he had promised Congress to their face he would not interfere with Weiss' Hunter Biden probe which began when the U.S. Attorney was assigned to the case in 2018.

Garland:

MR. WEISS IS A LONG TIME CAREER PROSECUTOR. PRESIDENT TRUMP APPOINTED HIM.

HE WAS CHARGED WITH THAT INVESTIGATION UNDER THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION. HE HAS CONTINUED. HE KNOWS HOW TO CONDUCT INVESTIGATIONS. I HAVE NOT INTRUDED OR ATTEMPTED TO EVALUATE THAT, BECAUSE THAT WAS THE PROMISE I MADE TO THE SENATE.

MR. WEISS ASKED FOR [SPECIAL COUNSEL] AUTHORITY GIVEN HIS EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES OF THIS MATTER, AND GIVEN MY PROMISE THAT I WOULD GIVE HIM ANY RESOURCES HE REQUESTED, AND I MADE HIM SPECIAL COUNSEL.

MR. WEISS HAS FULL AUTHORITY TO CONDUCT HIS INVESTIGATION HOWEVER HE WISHES , AND MR. WEISS HAS CONFIRMED THAT IN LETTERS TO THIS COMMITTEE....

MY TESTIMONY TODAY IS THAT I PROMISED THE SENATE I WOULD NOT INTRUDE IN HIS INVESTIGATION. I DO NOT INTEND TO DISCUSS INTERNAL JUSTICE DEPARTMENT DELIBERATIONS WHETHER OR NOT I HAVE THEM.

U.S. ATTORNEY DAVID WIESS TOLD SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM "I HAD DISCUSSIONS WITH DEPARTMENTAL OFFICIALS REGARDING POTENTIAL APPOINTMENT UNDER 28 SECTION 550 WHICH WOULD HAVE ALLOWED ME TO FILE CHARGES IN THE DISTRICT OUTSIDE MY OWN WITHOUT THE PARTNERSHIP OF THE LOCAL U.S. ATTORNEY." WITH WHOM DID HE HAVE THOSE DISCUSSIONS? I WILL NOT GET INTO THE INTERNAL DELIBERATIONS OF THE DEPARTMENT.

IT IS APPROPRIATE FOR MR. WEISS TO HAVE CONVERSATIONS WITH THE DEPARTMENT. I MADE IT CLEAR IF YOU WANTED TO BRING A CASE, HE WOULD BE ABLE TO DO THAT. THE WAY YOU DO THAT IS TO GET AN ORDER SIGNED BY THE ATTORNEY GENERAL CALLED A 515 ORDER. I PROMISED HE WOULD BE ABLE TO THAT, AND HE MADE CLEAR HE UNDERSTOOD HE WOULD BE ABLE TO DO THAT.

republican:

Garland:

PROSECUTORS MAKE APPROPRIATE DETERMINATIONS ON THEIR OWN. IN THIS CASE, I LEFT IT TO MR. WEISS WHETHER TO BRING CHARGES OR NOT. THAT WOULD INCLUDE WHETHER TO LET THE STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS TO EXPIRE OR NOT, WHETHER THERE WAS SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO BRING A CASE SUBJECT TO THE STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS OR NOT, WHETHER THERE WERE BETTER CASES TO BRING OR NOT.

I WILL SAY AGAIN, THE EXPLANATION FOR WHY THE STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS WAS LAPSED, IF IT WAS, HAS TO COME FROM MR. WEISS.

I HAVE INTENTIONALLY NOT INVOLVED MYSELF IN THE FACTS OF THE CASE, NOT BECAUSE I'M TRYING TO GET OUT OF RESPONSIBILITY, BUT BECAUSE I AM TRYING TO PURSUE MY RESPONSIBILITY.

from Merrick Garland's opening statement:

OUR JOB INCLUDES SEEKING JUSTICE FOR THE SURVIVORS OF CHILD EXPLOITATION, HUMAN SMUGGLING AND SEX TRAFFICKING. THAT INCLUDES PROTECTING DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS LIKE THIS ONE BY HOLDING ACCOUNTABLE ALL THOSE CRIMINALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE JANUARY 6th ATTACK ON THE CAPITOL.

OUR JOB IS ALSO TO PROTECT CIVIL RIGHTS. THAT INCLUDES PROTECTING OUR FREEDOMS AS AMERICANS TO WORSHIP AND THINK AS WE PLEASE, AND TO PEACEFULLY EXPRESS OUR OPINIONS, OUR BELIEFS, AND OUR IDEAS. IT INCLUDES PROTECTING THE RIGHT OF EVERY ELIGIBLE CITIZEN TO VOTE AND TO HAVE THAT VOTE COUNTED.

IT INCLUDES COMBATING DISCRIMINATION, DEFENDING REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS UNDER LAW, AND DETERRING AND PROSECUTING ATTACKS SUCH AS HATE CRIMES. OUR JOB IS TO UPHOLD THE RULE OF LAW.

THAT MEANS WE APPLY THE SAME LAWS TO EVERYONE. THERE IS NOT ONE SET OF LAWS FOR THE POWERFUL AND ANOTHER FOR THE POWERLESS, ONE FOR THE RICH AND ANOTHER FOR THE POOR, ONE FOR DEMOCRATS AND ANOTHER FOR REPUBLICANS, OR DIFFERENT RULES DEPENDING UPON ONE'S RACE, AT THE CITY, OR RELIGION.

OUR JOB IS TO PURSUE JUSTICE WITHOUT FEAR OR FAVOR. OUR JOB IS NOT TO DO WHAT IS POLITICALLY CONVENIENT. OUR JOB IS NOT TO TAKE ORDERS FROM THE PRESIDENT, FROM CONGRESS, OR FROM ANYONE ELSE ABOUT WHO OR WHAT TO CRIMINALLY INVESTIGATE.

AS THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF HAS SAID, AND I REAFFIRMED TODAY, I AM NOT THE PRESIDENT'S LAWYER. I WILL ADD THAT I AM NOT THE PROSECUTOR FOR CONGRESS. JUSTICE DEPARTMENT WORKS FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. OUR JOB IS TO FOLLOW THE FACTS AND THE LAW, AND THAT IS WHAT WE DO.

video and transcript: https://www.c-span.org/video/?530429-1/attorney-general-testifies-justice-dept-oversight&live&vod


...the rest is just a repeat of these dirt-dumb things republicans on the committee are saying and Garland basically reiterating the above.

September 19, 2023

If you're spending time worrying over our Dem incumbent, you're doing opposition politics wrong

...co-opting mostly meaningless polls this early out in the race is actually co-opting someone else's self-serving narrative.

Elections are certainly a referendum on the incumbent, but this race is against someone who also has a track record in office, a record of failure and criminality which outstrips concerns over 'age' and other minor faults Biden may have.

It's the opposition's hope, and the media's ambition, to equalize Trump's 91 criminal charges with Pres. Biden's record of many historic accomplishments and achievements.

That criminality isn't some abstract theme running in the background of the republican candidacy. It's a dominate theme which Trump, himself, is elevating above all else as his most prominent appeal. He wants the race to be a referendum on his criminal guilt vs. what amounts to a demagogic whispering campaign against his Democratic opponent.

More than that, Trump republicans believe that if they focus enough on Pres, Biden's fitness, it will allow them to highlight Kamala Harris as next-in line, and enable them to introduce the racism and misogyny which animates republican voters like none else.

What Democrats have in this WH is a strong and capable team which is laser-focused on elevating Americans' needs and interests above the self-interest of a republican political class obsessed with propping up a dissembling criminal.

It makes no sense to ask ourselves if any of this media-driven, push polling concern is a real threat to Pres. Biden. Voters' aren't as 'anxious' about the president as they are about the prospect of this media normalizing this multi-felony indicted criminal as a legitimate political challenge to our historically successful Dem incumbent.

The real worry is that voters may be snookered into accepting the media narrative. Therefore, our challenge is to keep turning the discussion back to the actual choices in this election, and to avoid handwinging over media-driven narratives which equalize petty concerns with clear and present threats to our democracy.

September 19, 2023

Media's sleeping on Trump's vow to "sign [insurrectionists'] pardons or commutations on day one"

...the former president running to assume office again has promised to pardon the people Merrick Garland's DOJ and the FBI apprehended and prosecuted for their assault on the nation's Capitol attempting to halt the certification of votes by Congress in a presidential election.

CNN:

Trump on Friday said he would appoint a task force to review the cases of people he claimed had been unjustly prosecuted related to their political beliefs by the Biden administration, should he win a second term in 2024.

“Tonight, I’m announcing that the moment I win the election, I will appoint a special task force to rapidly review the cases of every political prisoner whose been unjustly persecuted by the Biden administration,” Trump said at the Pray Vote Stand Summit hosted by the Family Research Council in Washington, DC.

Trump said he wanted to “study the situation very quickly, and sign their pardons or commutations on day one.”

It is utterly disqualifying, but this treasonous promise been pushed out of the public view and replaced with a repetition of 'unease' and worry over the 'age' of a man who's a mere three-years older than Trump - one of the most legislatively successful presidents in our nation's history as evidenced by the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, the $550 billion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the $280 billion Chips and Science Act, as well as the $700 billion Inflation Reduction Act, the climate and healthcare spending bill.

This press covering the criminally-indicted era Trump has married coverage of politics and pols to ratings and subscriptions like they're impartial referees, as if their only task is just to avoid offending either party's supporters any more than the other.

They've reduced their already vacuous coverage of this election to the equivalent of shouting questions at Pres. Biden they already know the banal answers to, across the graveyard where his family members are buried. Can you imagine that?



What was the actual journalistic value in MTP's Welker asking the multi-felony indicted, former occupant of the WH who she insisted on calling 'Mr. President' about Hunter Biden instead of the myriad issues and scandals surrounding his own children?

Why is the press intent on treating the man indicted on 91 charges as a legitimate presidential candidate? Moreover, why have they just brushed over the fact that Trump just vowed to use his office, if elected, to roil both democracy and our laws by engaging in the very same anti-democratic thuggery that he was impeached and then later arrested for?

September 18, 2023

Trump bullied Saudis to cut production and raise oil prices, then republicans refused to act

...Trump is now just outright lying about oil prices, claiming Pres. Biden's responsible for high gas prices today.

We shouldn't just recoil from the increase in the price of oil, or, as some in the media have, just bandy the price around like Democrats should be fearful of outside forces influencing the price of oil as Saudis have done for decades and decades.

We should be shouting from the rooftops about what Trump and congressional republicans have done to keep oil prices high.

When Trump was president, using his republican Congress as his enforcer, he DEMANDED Saudis CUT their oil production, or lose U.S. military support, all to keep oil prices HIGH to benefit U.S. oil interests.

Reuters, Apr. 2020:

In an April 2 phone call, Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started cutting oil production, he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the kingdom, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The effort illustrated Trump’s strong desire to protect the U.S. oil industry from a historic price meltdown as governments shut down economies worldwide to fight the virus. It also reflected a telling reversal of Trump’s longstanding criticism of the oil cartel, which he has blasted for raising energy costs for Americans with supply cuts that usually lead to higher gasoline prices. Now, Trump was asking OPEC to slash output.

A senior U.S. official told Reuters that the administration notified Saudi leaders that, without production cuts, “there would be no way to stop the U.S. Congress from imposing restrictions that could lead to a withdrawal of U.S. forces.”

Asked what he told the Crown Prince Mohammed, Trump said: “They were having a hard time making a deal. And I met telephonically with him, and we were able to reach a deal” for production cuts, Trump said.

“I thought he and President Putin, Vladimir Putin, were very reasonable,” Trump said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-trump-saudi-specialreport-idUSKBN22C1V4

More importantly, the entire republican party has voted to keep gas prices high. When Democrats voted to end gas gouging, every single republican in Congress voted NO.

The bill backed by House Democrats would have given President Biden authority to declare an energy emergency that would make it unlawful to increase gasoline and home energy fuel prices in an “excessive” or exploitative manner. The bill directed the Federal Trade Commission to punish companies that engage in price gouging.



Also, republicans' claim that Pres. Biden overseen a decline in oil production in the US is provably false: US oil production is set to reach an all-time high of 12.8 million barrels a day this year and 13.1 million in 2024, higher than under Trump or any prior president.

Moreover, the IEA forecast is for oil prices to IMPROVE next year:

U.S. oil production is forecast to average an all-time high of 12.8 million barrels a day this year and keep growing to 13.1 million in 2024, the federal Energy Information Administration said in its latest forecast. That’s up from the most recent trough of 5 million barrels a day in 2008, and probably enough to help the U.S. to keep its title as the No. 1 global crude oil producer.

Global forces, meanwhile, could cause pump prices to ease next year, with the Paris-based International Energy Agency forecasting that oil supply next year will outstrip demand.

.

September 15, 2023

McCarthy's inpeachment plan is to use a fake whistleblower to say Garland interfered w/Hunter probe

...but we have Merrick Garland critics falling over themselves to criticize Biden's AG for staying out of whatever Weiss is doing, or criticizing him for not denying Trump DOJ's U.S. Attorney the special counsel designation he requested.

Whatever Garland can be criticized for, jumping on him for following the lead of Pres. Biden in avoiding any perception of interference in the investigation or prosecution of his son has to be one of the most mindless pursuits out there for anyone identifying as a Democrat.

Any legitimacy House republicans may dream of achieving behind their barrel-of-monkeys impeachment scheme hangs on their Trump-linked insistence that it's Pres. Biden directing DOJ, not the independent prosecutors who've been given free reign by Garland to bring charges anywhere they find evidence.

Most of the handwringing attacks on Garland after Weiss announced the gun charges assume there's something Garland could do, should do, or would do to alter some move Weiss might make against Hunter - even falsely supposing it was the Special Counsel designation which allowed Weiss to bring or initiate gun charges which he could have leveled against Hunter at any time in his 5 year investigation.

There is nothing Garland could, can, or will do to affect the Weiss effort in any way that limits his authority or ability to carry it out as the SC sees fit, like it or not. That was made perfectly clear when Pres. Biden decided to keep Weiss, along with Durham, after letting the rest of the Trump DOJ appointees go.

No one is helping Hunter Biden, or more importantly, the President, by expecting Garland to touch the Weiss investigation with as much as a ten-foot pole.

All of the hyperbolic slinging of insults and derision on Garland for following the president's lead is just politically amateurish, and a bit embarrassing for people trying to make a legal argument; advocating what would amount to the interference republicans are desperately looking for to ignite their dud of an impeachment bomb.

September 14, 2023

Looking forward to republicans twisting over Hunter's gun charges*

...holding my breath here waiting for the GOP to rant on and on about Hunter Biden’s 2nd Amendment rights.

Whatever the heck this is supposed to do with Pres. Biden is going to be even more of a puzzle for House republicans. It's unconnected to any financial crime, and there's no clue from Weiss about what happened to the charges for paying taxes late that were in the plea deal (paying taxes obviously another republican fav).

Two of the charges carry a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison, according to the indictment. The less serious charge carries a maximum of 5 years of incarceration.

The original plea deal "required Biden to enter a pretrial diversion program, an option typically applied to nonviolent offenders with substance abuse problems. In all, he would have spent about two years on probation but avoided jail time if he kept to the terms of the deal, which included not owning a gun or engaging in criminal conduct."

The dispute which reportedly blew up his plea deal before the judge was over an understanding Hunter says he had with the prosecutor to get immunity from any more charges stemming from the five-year investigation.

That understanding Hunter believes he agreed to would have closed the book on Weiss' sham investigation which, to the embarrassment of republicans who've openly intended to exploit the now-SC's probe all the way to the election, didn't conclude with ANY of their salacious claims about a laptop or Burisma.

Initially, the investigation centered around Biden’s finances related to overseas business ties and consulting work. Over time, investigators with multiple agencies focused closely on whether Biden did not report all of his income, and whether he lied on gun purchase paperwork in 2018

So what is this, except for Weiss punishing Hunter Biden for daring to challenge the prosecutor's authority to keep digging? Why is he moving forward with harsher charges, without any protections against incarceration?

We can all now see this recently-elevated special counsel flailing around, trying to find something to hurt Hunter with, without any logic at all except this persecution prosecution. It shouldn't be legal to just sit on Hunter Biden until he can find something else to accuse him of, but here we are.

Weiss' wheel of misfortune of charges is just harassment, borne out of Trump-era misuse of the Justice Dept. which has now turned into actual jeopardy for Hunter Biden.


* https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/hunter-biden-indicted-federal-gun-charges-rcna39623