Facing a string of troubling public polls that have shown Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) opening up a solid lead, his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes, released one of her own on Wednesday that pegged the race as a tie.

The survey, from the Mellman Group, actually gives Grimes a 1-point lead, with 43 percent support from likely voters to McConnell’s 42 percent support; 15 percent remain undecided.

Mark Mellman, who is also a columnist for The Hill, expressed confidence in his results, noting his firm’s success rate in previous races.

“We’ve been right when these public polls have been wrong,” he said. “I'm more confident in our methods than I am what the public polls are doing.”

Mellman highlighted his work for New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer in 2013. Public polls showed Stringer trailing former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer by double digits, but his own polling nearly nailed the final margin. He also polled for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) during his 2010 reelection fight, which pegged the race correctly, even as most public polling showed Reid trailing his GOP challenger.

Mellman said he’s confident in his Kentucky Senate poll because it modeled “the likely electorate, not just likely voters,” by analyzing “each individual’s vote history and what that does to their probable vote” this cycle.