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Bernardo de La Paz

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Member since: Fri Jul 16, 2004, 11:36 PM
Number of posts: 42,367

About Me

Canadian who lived for many years in Northern California and left a bit of my heart there.

Journal Archives

Think hard about the mind boggling numbers of stars. But yeah, it's really the interstellar distance

In 2021, data from NASA's New Horizons space probe was used to revise the previous estimate to roughly 200 billion galaxies (2×1011),[8] which followed a 2016 estimate that there were two trillion (2×1012)[9] or more[10][11] galaxies in the observable universe, overall, and as many as an estimated 1×1024 stars[12][13] (more stars than all the grains of sand on all beaches of the planet Earth).[14]

Conceivably, possibly, an advanced civilization may have found a Warp Drive to bust the speed limit of light, but there is large possibility that it can't be busted at all. (See Fermi Paradox link at end)

I am sure that there are dozens of intelligent life forms around the universe and easily could be millions among the trillions of galaxies that contain billions of stars.

Out of 5,000 or so discovered exo-planets, we have found one that seems to have a watery atmosphere and may be in the liquid water zone around its star. For a long time we thought that few stars might have planets.

The Drake equation is:

N = R∗ · fp · ne · fl · fi · fc · L


N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone)
R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[5][6]

Range of results

As many skeptics have pointed out, the Drake equation can give a very wide range of values, depending on the assumptions,[52] as the values used in portions of the Drake equation are not well established.[27][53][54][55] In particular, the result can be N ≪ 1, meaning we are likely alone in the galaxy, or N ≫ 1, implying there are many civilizations we might contact. One of the few points of wide agreement is that the presence of humanity implies a probability of intelligence arising of greater than zero.[56]

As an example of a low estimate, combining NASA's star formation rates, the rare Earth hypothesis value of fp · ne · fl = 10−5,[57] Mayr's view on intelligence arising, Drake's view of communication, and Shermer's estimate of lifetime:

R∗ = 1.5–3 yr−1,[19] fp · ne · fl = 10−5,[33] fi = 10−9,[38] fc = 0.2[Drake, above], and L = 304 years[48]


N = 1.5 × 10−5 × 10−9 × 0.2 × 304 = 9.1 × 10−13

i.e., suggesting that we are probably alone in this galaxy, and possibly in the observable universe.

On the other hand, with larger values for each of the parameters above, values of N can be derived that are greater than 1. The following higher values that have been proposed for each of the parameters:

R∗ = 1.5–3 yr−1,[19] fp = 1,[22] ne = 0.2,[58][59] fl = 0.13,[60] fi = 1,[40] fc = 0.2[Drake, above], and L = 109 years[49]

Use of these parameters gives:

N = 3 × 1 × 0.2 × 0.13 × 1 × 0.2 × 109 = 15,600,000

Monte Carlo simulations of estimates of the Drake equation factors based on a stellar and planetary model of the Milky Way have resulted in the number of civilizations varying by a factor of 100.[61]

If we use the last set of parameters and then instead of applying a billion years, apply only a thousand years, you still get about 16 civilizations, currently, in only the Milky Way.

But of course we must also consider the Fermi Paradox.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Sep 16, 2022, 06:34 AM (1 replies)

Jail not serious enouh for you? I guess you are young and a bit wet behind the ears, which is okay

In MY lifetime, a Republican Vice President of the United States was prosecuted and convicted in court of crimes.

TWO Republican United States Attorney-General were prosecuted and convicted in court of crimes. Both served time in prison.

In MY lifetime, a Republican Secretary of Commerce was prosecuted and convicted.
A Republican Secretary of Agriculture was prosecuted and convicted and spent time in prison.
A Republican Secretary of Interior was prosecuted and convicted and got fines and 5 (five) years of probation and community service.

A Republican Senator was prosecuted and convicted and got a year of probation.

Republican Commissioner of the FDA.
Multiple Republican Chiefs of Staff.
Republican Senior Judge prosecuted, convicted, fined, jailed.
Republican General prosecuted, convicted.
Steve Stockman (R-TX) was convicted of fraud (2018).
Chris Collins (R-NY), pleaded guilty to insider trading (2019).
Duncan D. Hunter (R-CA), pleaded guilty to misuse of campaign funds (2019)

I could go on.

It is okay to be unaware of things that happened before your time but still very relevant today. But it is not okay to write as if important facts never happened once you do know.

It undermines the truthful narrative that Republicans are and have been more corrupt and dangerous than Democrats.

That narrative should be publicized, not cynically swept under the rug as if it never happened.
Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Fri Sep 16, 2022, 12:31 AM (2 replies)

Wrong. They speak English already. And wrong: learning a second language HELPS English

The triad of language, music, and math are synergistic for children and adults. Studying one helps the others. Studying all three supercharges learning.

Mathematics is the science of pattern.
Music is the art of pattern.
Language is communicating by pattern.

Learning a second language before age 7 makes acquiring languages easy.

Learn a second one before age 18 and it is harder, but quite doable.

Trying to learn a second language as an adult is very difficult for almost every person.

Teaching Russian, though, now, is just ignorant.

Lucky children are taught second languages at early ages when they have no fear of mistakes and soak things up like sponges. By seeing (hearing) how another language fits together and how the same parts are in different orders and the concepts of gender (Russian has three) stretch the mind.


Smart parents encourage language learning at all ages.

Boost Their Academic Achievement

The cognitive benefits of learning a language have a direct impact on a child’s academic achievement. Compared to those without an additional language, bilingual children have improved reading, writing, and math skills, and they generally score higher on standardized tests.

You don't want your child to do well? Stop them learning a second language.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Thu Sep 15, 2022, 08:49 PM (3 replies)

Simple language: "Half of us are already trans. Yup, the males." Stop 'em in their tracks

You really have to whack some people with a metaphorical mental two by four to get them to think.

Ultimately, of course, it does not matter what hormones did what when. At least it is way down below the right of humans to be simply human first and to be able to choose what kind of human they are, let it harm none.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Wed Sep 14, 2022, 09:50 AM (1 replies)

It boils down to not wanting to share with The Other. That's why they love National Socialism

Nazism or National Socialism means sharing among the privileged, and white people are automatically privileged in Nazi states, more or less, since the most privileged are rich old white male party members.

tRump's base, and many others in the Republicon party and the CONservative movement are happy about sharing with privileged whites as they jockey for position in a thugocracy of violent whites. But sharing with people of colour, oh no, they are the dreaded "other" upon whom all problems are blamed so that those whites can scoot away and maintain privilege.

Note: you can drop out of the privileged white class by being disadvantaged from birth or meeting financial disaster (medical bills) or related reasons. In the eyes of the privileged they become "white trash" and don't have to be shared with. A sort of adjunct "other".

Being anti-"woke" means not having to share as much.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Mon Aug 22, 2022, 06:43 AM (0 replies)

Matters not gender of person dragging, but skin color does matter to blackface

It doesn't matter what colour of skin or chromosome set or self-identified gender or physical characteristics (natural or surgically modified) of the person doing the drag. It doesn't matter if they self-identify as X or male or female or two-spirit.

If a PERSON wants to wear a dress and makeup and flounce around, let them do so unmolested.

Just like men should not tell women what to wear, people should not tell people whether they can wear dresses or not.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Wed Jul 6, 2022, 02:00 PM (1 replies)

Outlaws threaten judges. Incarcerate outlaws. Remove them from the streets and social media. . . nt

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Wed Jun 29, 2022, 05:59 PM (1 replies)

We are so close to a bright progressive future but egoistic jerks like DeSatanis & Putin in the way

Not to forget Big Money that won't pay the poor and middle class decent wages.

So close to embracing diversity and plurality and PLURality for such a more powerful dynamic civilization.

It's coming.

The question is how many tragedies have to happen while reactionary forces fight losing rearguard actions, like the Perjurous Three on the Court. They thought birth slavery would save America. In time they will be reversed, like slavery was reversed after the Dred Scott decision.

Although Taney and several other justices hoped the decision would permanently settle the slavery controversy, which was increasingly dividing the American public, the decision's effect was the opposite.[9] Taney's majority opinion suited the slaveholding states, but was intensely decried in all the other states.[4] The decision inflamed the national debate over slavery and deepened the divide that led ultimately to the American Civil War.

In 1865, after the Union's victory, the Court's ruling in Dred Scott was superseded by the passage of the Thirteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which abolished slavery, and the Fourteenth Amendment, whose first section guaranteed citizenship for "all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof".

The Dred Scott decision failed monumentally. The point was driven home in 2008 when Obama won the Presidency.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Wed Jun 29, 2022, 06:11 AM (0 replies)

Hmm, I'm thinking say "birth forcer"

A woman prevented by force of law from an abortion is a birther (mother) who was forced: a "forced birther".

Boebert wants to prevent abortions by law (not by social engineering because that would mean actually helping people).

Boebert wants to force births, in other people (the hypocrite). She wants to be a forcer (creating the force by voting legislation) and leave the enforcement up to law enforcement officers. She is a "birth forcer" and a "birth enforcer", the latter via proxies.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Wed Jun 15, 2022, 02:27 PM (1 replies)

I too believe "The evolution of culture, society, and humanity is simply inexorable."

It is logical and highly effective and very peaceful. It works in so many wonderful ways.

Just like high intelligence is an emergent feature that resulted from perfecting bipedal locomotion, a burgeoning diverse culture is a logical emergence. The more creativity and intelligence are rewarded in society (and they are), the more diversity in all its manifestations is allowed and flourishes.

It particularly irks the tRump base that they realize they are losing and they don't get why. They are not Moses parting the water for a return to the promised land. They are idiots drowning because they went jet skiing without a life jacket.

If they won't or can't get on board with inevitable reality, leave them in our dust. Full rights and access to services, but not much interaction. Let them become like Amish, like some sect but stuck in the 1950s. Not much else we can do.

Posted by Bernardo de La Paz | Sun Jun 12, 2022, 06:11 AM (1 replies)
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