In 2021, data from NASA's New Horizons space probe was used to revise the previous estimate to roughly 200 billion galaxies (2×1011),[8] which followed a 2016 estimate that there were two trillion (2×1012)[9] or more[10][11] galaxies in the observable universe, overall, and as many as an estimated 1×1024 stars[12][13] (more stars than all the grains of sand on all beaches of the planet Earth).[14]

The Drake equation is:

N = R∗ · fp · ne · fl · fi · fc · L

where

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone)
R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[5][6]

Range of results

As many skeptics have pointed out, the Drake equation can give a very wide range of values, depending on the assumptions,[52] as the values used in portions of the Drake equation are not well established.[27][53][54][55] In particular, the result can be N ≪ 1, meaning we are likely alone in the galaxy, or N ≫ 1, implying there are many civilizations we might contact. One of the few points of wide agreement is that the presence of humanity implies a probability of intelligence arising of greater than zero.[56]

As an example of a low estimate, combining NASA's star formation rates, the rare Earth hypothesis value of fp · ne · fl = 10−5,[57] Mayr's view on intelligence arising, Drake's view of communication, and Shermer's estimate of lifetime:

R∗ = 1.5–3 yr−1,[19] fp · ne · fl = 10−5,[33] fi = 10−9,[38] fc = 0.2[Drake, above], and L = 304 years[48]

gives:

N = 1.5 × 10−5 × 10−9 × 0.2 × 304 = 9.1 × 10−13

i.e., suggesting that we are probably alone in this galaxy, and possibly in the observable universe.

On the other hand, with larger values for each of the parameters above, values of N can be derived that are greater than 1. The following higher values that have been proposed for each of the parameters:

R∗ = 1.5–3 yr−1,[19] fp = 1,[22] ne = 0.2,[58][59] fl = 0.13,[60] fi = 1,[40] fc = 0.2[Drake, above], and L = 109 years[49]

Use of these parameters gives:

N = 3 × 1 × 0.2 × 0.13 × 1 × 0.2 × 109 = 15,600,000

Monte Carlo simulations of estimates of the Drake equation factors based on a stellar and planetary model of the Milky Way have resulted in the number of civilizations varying by a factor of 100.[61]

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