Fiendish Thingy
Fiendish Thingy's JournalEmptywheel- Where the Trump investigations stand: Georgia
https://www.emptywheel.net/2023/04/30/where-the-trump-investigations-stand-georgia/Excellent update and summary:
In a bid to keep the Special Grand Jurys recommendations secret in January, Fani Willis said the charging decisions were imminent. Since then, however, the regular Fulton County grand juries that would have to charge Trump and others have been churning out indictments for more ordinary crimes. According to Andrew Fleischman, there are 18,000 pending felony cases in Fulton County, many of them being held pre-indictment. Like some of the delays in the January 6 investigation, this backlog stems in part from COVID restrictions.
But it wasnt just that backlog that has delayed charges against Trump. In March, Willis asked Christina Bobb for an interview (who refused). It may be that, after reading Bobbs January 6 Committee testimony (transcripts of which were only released after the Fulton Special Grand Jury expired), Willis discovered that, while Bobb claimed to have been uninvolved in the crimes in Georgia, she testified that she and, at least two dozen others, over at least two rooms, sat in on Trumps call to Brad Raffensperger, and we all thought it was totally fine. On top of discovering that there were up to 24 witnesses who might be willing to misrepresent the call at trial, this may have caught Rudy Giuliani in a lie. After it became public, Rudy amended his interrogatories in Ruby Freemans lawsuit to reflect some involvement in the call as well. Someone recently claimed to me that Willis case is open and shut. But its not open and shut if there were 24 unknown witnesses involved.
More famously, according to a letter seeking to disqualify an attorney representing most of the fake electors, Willis has been spending recent weeks interviewing fake electors and telling them, allegedly for the first time, that they could get immunity deals if they testified against other Republicans. Friday, one of the fake electors who also accessed voting machine data on January 7, joined Trumps effort to undercut Willis authority, represented by a new attorney. All of which suggests that Willis is spending time not just making charging decisions, but making sure she can win the case.
Emptywheel- Where the Trump investigations stand: Stolen Documents
https://www.emptywheel.net/2023/04/30/where-the-trump-investigations-stand-stolen-documents/Excellent update and summary:
-snip-
But theres another question that may be just as important as the evidence to support the charges, and may elicit quite a debate within DOJ: venue. The easiest way to overcome all the difficulties with charging a former President with 793 would be to charge his retention of documents after the time when:
The Archives had explained that retaining them was unlawful under the Presidential Records Act
Both the Archives and DOJ had asked for them back
Jay Bratt had informed him (through Evan Corcoran) that they were being stored improperly
That is, if he were to charge 793, Smith would likely charge for actions trump took between May and August of last year, at Mar-a-Lago. So (while some smart lawyers disagree) there would be at least a fair argument that it would have to be charged in SDFL.
-snip-
Whereas, if Smith were to charge only obstruction, venue in DC is not a stretch at all.
Much more, with receipts, at link.
Emptywheel- Where the Trump investigations stand: January 6 conspiracies
https://www.emptywheel.net/2023/04/30/where-the-trump-investigations-stand-the-january-6-conspiracies/Excellent update and summary of the current status of Smiths investigation of the January 6 conspiracies, including pieces Smiths prosecutors still seem to be working on:
To understand its import, let me explain how I think the various things Smith is investigating fit together. I think it likely that, in addition to some charges relating to the obstruction of this or the January 6 Committees investigation, Smiths team is pursuing:
Conspiracy to defraud the United States for submitting fake elector certificates to the Archives (18 USC 371)
Obstruction of the vote certification and conspiracy to obstruct (18 USC 1512(c)(2) and (k))
Conspiracy to commit wire fraud (18 USC 1343; 1349)
Aiding and abetting assault (18 USC 111(b) and 2)
This differs from the January 6 Committees referrals in that Ive included wire fraud, for which they provided abundant evidence, in an appendix, but did not include in their referrals. Also, I believe Smith would charge conspiracy tied to January 6 under 1512(k) rather than 371, as DOJ has been doing for over a year, not least because it provides stiffer sentences and more flexibility at sentencing. And Ive suggested DOJ might use aiding and abetting of Michael Fanones assault based off Amit Mehtas ruling addressing it and the evidence DOJ used in the Ed Badalian trial. I think thats more likely than a charge for incitement of insurrection (18 USC 2383) unless DOJ built upwards off of still-hypothetical guilty verdicts in the Proud Boys case, but it might take time. I frankly think adding seditious conspiracy charges would be more likely than incitement of insurrection, if one spent the time to build up the intervening case, but thats highly unlikely for constitutional reasons.
The way these three main charges conspiracy to defraud tied to the fake elector certificates, conspiracy to obstruct the vote certification, and wire fraud intersect likely provide some prosecutorial tools for the same reason that some Georgia Republicans are now turning on other ones.
Lots more, with receipts, at the link.
P.S. just a reminder, every time someone says Slam Dunk! an angel gets its wings ripped out by the roots.
The Testimony Jack Smith gets this week builds on work from over a year ago
https://www.emptywheel.net/2023/04/06/the-testimony-jack-smith-gets-this-week-builds-on-work-from-over-a-year-ago/Starting tomorrow, Secret Service agents will testify in the stolen documents case. That comes after (according to CNN), witnesses who gave voluntary testimony last summer have made subsequent appearances before the grand jury and Evan Corcoran provided crime-fraud excepted documents and testimony to the same grand jury. Multiple other lawyers already testified before the grand jury.
While there are a few outstanding items, such as the exploitation of Scott Perrys phone, the DC Circuit decision on the application of 18 USC 1512(c)(2) to January 6, finding a way to obtain any remaining classified documents Trump has been hoarding, a verdict in the Proud Boys trial (which may dictate charging decisions for others) all of which efforts have been pending for over six months, before Smith was appointed the twin investigations headed by Jack Smith appear to be headed to imminent resolutions.
In recent weeks, the same TV lawyers who were wailing last summer about the January 6 investigation into Trump (the stolen documents investigation, while already laying the groundwork for charging a former President under the Espionage Act, still remained entirely unknown), have suggested that Alvin Braggs indictment of Trump might, might light a fire under other prosecutors and advance the proposition that even ex-presidents must follow the law.
Its an obscene suggestion, that Jack Smith or his AUSAs or Merrick Garland needed some push to pursue the investigation into Donald Trump, when instead the TV lawyers simply needed a push to review what steps the investigation was actually pursuing. Thats because all of the recent developments in the Jack Smith case the crime-fraud ruling, the Executive Privilege waiver, the testimony of Mike Pence very obviously build on work done last year, well before Garland appointed Jack Smith. Some of those steps were even public at the time last summer when the very same TV lawyers were wailing. All of the climactic steps occurring in recent weeks were easily foreseeable by August.
Prosecutors have been building to this moment for a long time.
Much, much more at link, with receipts and a detailed timeline. Highly recommended read for those who prefer evidence based analysis versus clickbait speculation.
Every time someone says slam dunk, an angel gets its wings ripped out by the roots.
2018: 50 Dem reps, 17 Dem senators vote to weaken Dodd-Frank banking regulations
Along with all the republicans, Which was then signed by Trump and led to the SVB melt down.
They overcame a filibuster to weaken regulations for this particular bank, whose CEO lobbied hard for relaxing regulations regarding capital liquidity.
Just sayin, to keep the record straight.
No SVB depositor should be bailed out for more than the FDIC max of $250k. SVB was not like George Baileys savings & loan
M&M's clap back at Tucker Carlson in Super Bowl commercials
Maybe someone posted this yesterday and I missed it?
Whats even funnier, is that tons of people, including some DUers, actually believed that the Mars Company had caved to Carlsons whining outburst, and that Rudolph was complicit folks were organizing liberal boycotts of M&Ms
Well played, Mars co.
Emptywheel: The Thinness of the January 6 committee's Obstruction referral
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/12/20/the-thinness-of-the-january-6-committees-obstruction-referral/For example, they dont even consider whether Trump is exposed for aiding and abetting the actual assaults, something that Judge Amit Mehta said is a plausible (civil) charge against Trump. Some of the Committees evidence, especially Trumps foreknowledge that the mob he sent to the Capitol was armed, would very much support such a charge. If Trump were held accountable for something like the tasing of Michael Fanone it would clarify how directly his actions contributed to the actual violence.
Im also mystified why the Committee referred the obstruction conspiracy under 371 without consideration of doing so under 1512(k), even as DOJ increasingly emphasizes the latter approach. If DOJs application of obstruction is upheld, then charging conspiracy on 1512 rather than 371 not only brings higher base level exposure (20 years as opposed to 5), but it also lays out enhancements for the use of violence. If this application of obstruction is upheld, by charging conspiracy under 1512(k), you have a ready way to hold Trump accountable for the physical threat to Mike Pence.
Its in the way that the Committee referred the obstruction charge, however, Im most disappointed. This referral matters, mostly, if it can be used by DOJ to bolster its own defense of the statute or by a sympathetic judge to write a compelling opinion.
And this referral is weak on several counts. First, even with evidence that Trump knew his mob was armed when he sent them to the Capitol, the referral does not incorporate emphasis that the David Carter opinion they rely on did: That Trump (and John Eastman) not only asked Mike Pence to do something illegal, but then used the mob as a tool to pressure Pence.
Much, much more, with evidence and receipts, at link above.
Marcy goes into great detail how the committees referral omits or ignores the stringent judicial standards for prosecuting obstruction, standards which the evidence gathered by the committee clearly shows has been met.
Hopefully, DOJ will feel free to ignore the committees framing of their obstruction referral, and proceed with their own, more judicially sound, prosecution.
Emptywheel: the pluses/minuses of a Special Counsel
Marcy has mixed feelings, but as usual, provides a balanced analysis.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/11/18/merrick-garland-names-war-crimes-prosecutor-jack-smith-to-oversee-trump-investigations/
Otherwise I have mixed feelings about the decision. I think the letter of DOJ guidelines requires it. But I dont think it will change how much of a clusterfuck Trump makes of it.
It does have certain other advantages, other than making it easier to subpoena Ginni. It might even make it easy to subpoena Mike Pence.
First, this will make it very easy to refuse Jim Jordans demands for information about the investigation.
It will ensure the continuity of any prosecution after 2025, no matter who is elected (neither hypothetical Trump prosecution the stolen documents or the coup attempt would be done by then, even if it were indicted on December 15, the earliest possible day for either).
I dont think this will create much of a delay. The stolen documents case, which is the first that could be prosecuted (assuming the 11th Circuit overturns Judge Aileen Cannons special master order) is fairly self-contained, so would only take a day to be briefed into. The coup attempt is far, far more complex, but I think there was no way Trump himself would be indicted before February or March anyway, probably longer.
(Snip)
Mostly, I think this is an Eh decision. It doesnt change Garlands role in the process. I dont think it delays things. I think it carries certain ad advantages, two of those named Ginni and Jim.
Looks like Manchin and Sinema are joining the economic terrorists to hold debt ceiling hostage
And kill SS and Medicare:
https://digbysblog.net/2022/11/16/crazytown/
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/16/lame-duck-debt-ceiling-deal-00067123
Senior administration officials see little chance of attracting any Republican votes for a bipartisan debt limit hike during the short session. And they dont believe they have the 50 Democratic Senate votes needed to slam through a hike using the budget reconciliation process that would allow them to avoid a Republican filibuster.
Already, Manchin has expressed reluctance to act on the debt limit with only Democratic votes, though hes declined to rule it out completely.
I dont think it should go to reconciliation, he said Tuesday. My goodness, its something weve always worked together on.
.
P.S. Joe Manchin is a fine American statesman (because thats all his fan club will allow me to say)
Merrick Garland hasn't done the specific thing you want because...
DOJ is busy doing the things they have to do first.
https://www.emptywheel.net/2022/11/14/merrick-garland-hasnt-done-the-specific-thing-you-want-because-doj-has-been-busy-doing-things-they-have-to-do-first/
Yes. It has been almost a week since the close of polls last Tuesday. No. Merrick Garland has not carted Trump away in a paddy wagon yet (nor would the FBI, if and when they ever did arrest him).
Yes. We actually know why Garland hasnt done so and its not for want of actions that might lead there.
There are still known steps that have to or probably will happen before Trump would be indicted in any of the known criminal investigations into him. For those demanding proof of life from the DOJ investigations into Trump, you need look no further than the public record to find that proof of life. The public record easily explains both what DOJ has been doing in the Trump investigations, and why there is likely to be at least a several month delay before any charges can be brought.
The reason is that DOJ is still pursuing the evidence they would need before charging a former President.
Much, much more at link, with supporting links and evidence.
Profile Information
Member since: Mon Sep 6, 2004, 12:00 PMNumber of posts: 15,598