democrattotheend
democrattotheend's JournalI think last night will hurt Trump more than the 1st 2012 debate hurt Obama
I've noticed a lot of people, mostly Republicans trying to console themselves, pointing out that President Obama came back from his disastrous first debate with Romney in 2012. I think it's a bad comparison for a couple reasons.
First of all, Obama didn't sound half as ridiculous in the first debate with Romney as Trump sounded last night. What he said wasn't terrible, the problem was almost all in the delivery. Obama may have given a shaky performance but he didn't make any major gaffes like bragging about defrauding the government or calling it smart business to root for the housing market to fail.
More importantly, Obama was an incumbent president in 2012. He had been president for four years; he didn't have to make comfortable with the idea of him as president. Trump, in contrast, is a political novice who had to prove that he knew what he was talking about and come across as presidential so people could envision him as president. He not only failed to do that but confirmed many people's suspicions that he doesn't take the job or the office seriously.
POLL: North Carolina HighPoint University: Clinton +1 with leaners, +2 w/o
Likely voters with leaners:
Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 10
Likely voters w/o leaners:
Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 8
http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2016/09/47memoA.pdf
404 likely voters, landline and cell phone, conducted 9/17 - 9/22
4.9% MOE, sample weighted based on 2008 and 2012 demographics
NEW POLLS 9/26
There are a bunch so I will just repost the graphic from 538:
I don't know Seltzer & Company, but 538 rates them A+. Are they the pollster for the Bloomberg poll?
POLL: Economist/YouGov National
New nat'l poll of registered voters:
2-WAY Clinton 48 Trump 44
4-WAY Clinton 44 Trump 41 Johnson 5 Stein 2
MOE +/-3.8% —Economist/YouGov
Are they still using registered voters instead of a likely voter screen? If so these #'s are not great.
Note: My original post mistakenly identified CBS, rather than The Economist, as the news organization that commissioned the poll.
Breaking: 6th Circuit Rules Ohio’s voter purges violate the NVRA
Here's the opinion:
http://www.demos.org/sites/default/files/publications/APRI%20v%20Husted%206th%20Circuit%20Opinion%2016-3746.pdf
Appeals court: Ohio elections chief wrongly purged voters
Source: Associated Press
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — A federal appeals court says Ohio’s elections chief has been wrongfully removing eligible voters from the swing state’s registration list.
The American Civil Liberties Union of Ohio and the public advocacy group Demos had challenged the state’s process for maintaining its voter rolls, claiming it illegally drops registered voters based on their failure to vote.
A three-judge panel of the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati ruled Friday that Ohio’s process violates the National Voter Registration Act.
Read more: http://ktar.com/story/1286762/appeals-court-ohio-elections-chief-wrongly-purged-voters/
Woo hoo! Another victory for voting rights!
AP/Gfk National Poll: Clinton +6
With and without Johnson & Stein.
Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 9, Stein 2
Clinton 50, Trump 44
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/September-2016-AP-GfK-Poll-Topline-Clinton.pdf
If I recall from 2012 this is not a great poll, but I could be remembering wrong. But it's definitely not bad news.
POLL: Clinton +7 in Colorado (+9 in 2-way)
Rocky Mountain/PBS Poll. Don't know anything about it.
4 way: Clinton 41, Trump 34, Johnson 12, Stein 3 Clinton +7
2-way: Clinton 44, Trump 35 Clinton +9
Just got some details: Pollster is Franklin & Pierce. Pretty sure they are a good pollster.
Poll was conducted September 14-18, so a little old at this point. Quinnipiac's had more recent data (September 13-21).
Interviews done over the phone or online, doesn't say if cell phones were polled.
http://pbs.bento.storage.s3.amazonaws.com/hostedbento-prod/filer_public/RMPBS%20Blog%20Images/News%20imgs/CMU-RMPBS-Poll_FINAL.PDF
POLLS: New Quinnipiac Polls of VA, CO, GA, IA
Iowa and Georgia not good. The other 2 ok. Colorado a little close for comfort
Note: These interviews were taken September 13-21, so they may not reflect what seems to be a bit of a rebound as much as polls that have a shorter period. This has long been my criticism of Quinnipiac polls.
New Quinnipiac polls of LVs >
CO: HC 44, DT 42, GJ 10
GA: DT 47, HC 40, GJ 9
IA: DT 44, HC 37, GJ 10
VA: HC 45, DT 39, GJ 8
CNN: Trump companies have a history of hiring foreign workers
Glad to see this finally getting some coverage.
https://t.co/uKo5Ld426l
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