Trump will be tied in WaPo poll shortly because

It user voter intensity to determine who is a likely voter. And Trumpkin voter intensity is going to 11 right now

I know I'm in the minority about Comey but

I honestly think he is just too stupid to live.

I don't think he was actually trying to do politics by other means. I think he's just a goddamn moron.

Suspect Massive DDoS today is practice for Nov 8

Consider: internet down, fake reports of fraud, faked documents online alleging fraud.

Point isn't to change election. Point is to sow confusion and doubt so Trumpists think they have been cheated.

Election Model 10/18/2016

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 88.53 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 320.2
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 323.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 339

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 90.65 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 327.99
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 331.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 343

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 6.99


Approaching the consensus 7 point lead in the polling averages.

For my next updates, i'm going to try and add some graphics and state by state projections. It's time.

Election Model Update 10/18/2016

Search my journal pages for previous updates

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 88.53 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 319.52
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 323.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 327

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 91.16 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 326.12
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 329.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 329

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 6.87

Comments: Drift and Instantaneous model continue to converge. Clinton national lead approaching that estimated by national surveys.

I could use another good Oppo dump soon

I am finally done laughing from the last few weeks of oppo dumps. I need my fix, dammit.

Anybody want a list of the Trump companies operating in Russia that he denies exist?

Check this out:

https://twitter.com/funder/status/788040411407343618

Monmouth Poll H50 T38

Conspiracists on twitter freaking out under #Assange hashtag

Lot of rumors of an extradition at this point.

It is almost certainly just conspiracy nuts doing what conspiracy nuts do, but would be interesting if related to Roger Stone's weird tweet today...

Why is Roger Stone threatening the Trump campaign?

This is weird.